When does a swing state stop being a swing state?

[SheilaT]

Last night on Rachel Maddow, she said that latest polling had Obama up 5 points in Florida, by 6 in Wisconsin, by 7 in Ohio and Virginia, and by 8 in Michigan.

How in the world are those states still considered swing states? Or is it just that the MSM really, really, REALLY wants to continue to treat this as a horse race.

Yes, it's a horse race. But it's this horse race:

[liberal N proud]

1. When it quits swinging?

[cleduc]

2. I think Real Clear uses +6 or better in their state polls of polls

to move it from toss up to lean.

Karl Rove uses +4 or better.

It varies by those producing the EV map.

Some traditional solid red or solid blue states don't have enough polls, so they apply historical judgment until more is known.

[TeamPooka]

3. Swing State Swung. nt

[Doctor Jack]

4. That is what i have always wondered about Pennsylvania

Every election, Pennsylvania is called a "key swing state" yet it hasn't voted Republican in 24 years. Same with Michigan and for some reason New Jersey is called a swing state by some. I would consider Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Iowa to be swing states. The rest is just nonsensical political analysis.

[Bucky]

5. Michigan swung pretty deep red in 2010

They swing when we don't show up. They quit swinging when we get out the vote.

[Cali_Democrat]

6. Not until the election is over

The media wants the horse race narrative. If they declare certain states to no longer be swing states, it ruins their narrative and ultimately their bottom line $$$$$.

[Daniel537]

7. +1

"Its tight", Its a dead heat", "Its really close", "Toss-up". Expect to hear all this crap until 11PM EST Nov. 6th.

[SheilaT]

13. I guess it's like the horse race video I posted.

Secretariat hadn't officially won until he actually crossed the finish line, but he won by 31 lengths (it takes five full seconds before the horses behind him cross the finish line), set a track record that still stands today, ran each quarter faster than the one before, and was STILL accelerating when he crossed that finish line.

I sincerely hope that Obama finishes in a similar fashion.

[HopeHoops]

8. When the polls close on election night.

[Fresh_Start]

9. I don't think they mean swing state at this moment

I think its based on historic voting patterns

[reformist2]

10. There's a weird inconsistency this year between the national polls and the "swing states."

If Obama is up only 3-5% nationally, it's weird that he's up by that much and more in the swing states. Is there any state where he and Romney are tied?

[SheilaT]

11. I've noticed that.

Supposedly at the national level it's more or less a tie. But the Obama advantage is growing in many states. I am not reading the polls very closely. I occasionally take a look at Nate Silver's column, but now that he's on the NYTimes, and I haven't paid for access, I only get to read him if someone else posts a link.

And of course, in the end, the popular vote overall does not matter.

[reformist2]

12. I've heard that one or more of the national polls are outliers (read: biased) for Romney.

Maybe that explains the discrepancy.