it certainly had an impact on the political ads and the role of tv in politics and discussions of what was appropriate in political ads and so on. it's a legendary ad, perhaps the single most famous political ad ever in american politics.
but i don't think it dramatically changed the outcome of the election. that is, if the ad had never run, i think the election would have turned out very close to how it actually turned out.
it's the same sort of phenomenon as some famous commercials, like the energizer bunny ad. hugely famous, maybe not so much anymore, but at the time, it was widely seen as one of the most recognizable and best ad campaigns ever. but it didn't actually help energizer gain market share over duracell. there are a number of reasons for this, but the point is that just because people talk about the ad doesn't mean it actually had an impact on sales. the ad had an enormous impact on other tv ads and people certainly talked about it, but it didn't really change things for the business it was intended to help.
after jfk's assassination, people wanted continuity, and goldwater's conservativism and strict ideological approach to politics had a limited appeal at that point. he was a movement builder and was inept at building a coalition, which is why he failed miserably but is still regarded as the grandfather of modern conservativism.
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