All Your Most Paranoid Transfer of Power Questions, Answered

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Dave Weigel Retweeted

excellent piece

The anxiety on the left about Trump staying in office after losing seems rooted in outlandish "Seven Days in May" scenarios. This won't happen. However, there are more plausible (if unlikely) scenarios with obscure election laws and phalanxes of lawyers

Link to tweet

All Your Most Paranoid Transfer of Power Questions, Answered

Ben Jacobs

Jul 24

Can Donald Trump continue as president even if he loses the election in November?

Trump’s refusal to say that he would accept the results of the election during an interview with Chris Wallace of Fox News comes as the president continues to fearmonger about the use of vote by mail in the 2020 election and raise questions about its legitimacy.

This rhetoric is not new from Trump. He falsely claimed in 2016 that Ted Cruz “stole” the Iowa caucuses and refused to commit in advance to accepting the result of the general election against Hillary Clinton. Now that he’s in the White House, can Trump thwart the will of the American electorate if he loses in November? Let’s look at what’s actually possible — and what isn’t.

Can Trump do anything if it’s a Biden landslide?

No. In this case, only the most outlandish scenarios would be available to a president seeking to stay in office. Peter Feaver, a professor at Duke University who served on George W. Bush’s National Security Council, said Trump “would have to persuade many, many people who are currently in government, most of whom are civil servants, they have to go along” with any effort. Further, the constitutional process of transfer of power does not require any “pomp and circumstance”; if Trump loses, he is no longer president as of noon on January 20, 2021, regardless of where he remains physically. Even if he bunkers down in the White House and tweets orders at government officials, he will lack any legal power.

{snip}

[Thomas Hurt]

1. I don't think the Pig will stay in power, I am CERTAIN he will try anything and everything he can

It would not be surprising to me if he did barricade himself in the WH and try to whip up the christofascist nutters to go on the offensive.

[Runningdawg]

5. Right on the nose.

He has been telling his cult the ONLY way he will ever be removed from office is by coup and his militias and mercs are chomping at the bit. This is a man who would rather burn down DC than admit he lost. I have a hunch the period between this election and the inauguration will be the the most violent ever witnessed on American streets.

[in2herbs]

2. I personally hope that Biden skips the pomp and circumstance pre and post inagural events and

just gets down to business the minute the clock strikes 12.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

3. Same here. NT

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. Two important dates to remember: Dec. 14 and Jan. 6

(Reposted from my comments on similar threads)

IIRC, Dec. 14 is the date that each states’ electors must be appointed and cast their votes, and Jan. 6 is when the new congress counts and certifies the electoral votes.

It doesn’t matter what Trump says, it matters what he does...

I’m sure he will have lawyers challenge the results in any states with close margins, but most states don’t allow recounts unless the margin falls below 0.5%. That’s why Biden must win the swing states with a margin that can withstand any challenges. Trump will try to challenge mail in ballots as fraudulent, but I don’t think that will get far in court.

There has been some concern about states with Republican legislatures refusing to appoint electors, but in many states, the legislature has no power over the appointment of electors, it is the role of the Secretary of State to certify the popular vote and appoint electors as prescribed by law. In Michigan, for example, the SoS must appoint electors based on the outcome of the popular vote.

If Trump or any states’ GOP legislature succeeds in blocking the appointment of any electors, that just lowers the total needed to win the presidency. Some have worried that this strategy would throw the decision to the house, where each state gets 1 vote, but that only applies if neither candidate gets a majority of the appointed electors, which is not possible if electors are split between just 2 candidates- except for a tie (the times in the past that the house has had to decide elections has only occurred when 3-4 candidates earned electoral votes or there was a tie).

If things turn out as projected in current polls, Trump will have to brazenly attempt to overturn the will of the people in numerous states- a strategy not likely to succeed, IMO.

Once the EV’s are certified by congress, Trump can wreak havoc as a lame duck, but he is powerless to avoid the reality of his term ending on January 20, 2021.