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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsElectoral College: Florida Moves From Toss Up to Lean Democrat
Given its track record in presidential campaigns over the last 20 years, its hard to think of Florida as anything other than a Toss Up. Since 2000, the winner of the state has never carried it by more than 5 points. In fact, in four of the last five presidential elections, the winner squeaked in by 3 points or less.
But, at this point, this battleground state looks less like a 50-50 proposition and more like a state that is leaning Bidens way.
To paraphrase CNNs crack polling analyst Harry Enten; sometimes politics is complicated, sometimes its not. Right now, its really not. When a major health crisis hits, Americans expect their leaders to handle it. If they dont, voters will turn against them.
In Florida, as COVID-19 cases started to rise this summer, Trump has seen his vote margin and his job approval rating drop.
In the FiveThirtyEight poll tracker, Trump held a decent though unimpressive, 47-48 percent of the vote against Joe Biden in the Sunshine state from March through April. By May, it had dropped to 45 percent. He has spent most of June in the 42-43 percent range. Bidens lead has expanded from 2 points in March to almost 7 points in July.
Its not just Trump who has seen his numbers slump as the state has struggled to contain the virus this summer. GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis has seen a drastic change in his political fortunes from spring to summer. A Quinnipiac poll released this week found DeSantis job approval rating at just 41 percent favorable to 52 percent unfavorable a 19 point shift in negative opinion since April.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/electoral-college-florida-moves-toss-lean-democrat
chia
(2,244 posts)Wounded Bear
(58,721 posts)Johnny2X2X
(19,118 posts)And that's big because the entire system in Florida is set up for seniors to be able to vote easily. Joe stays out front with seniors and voter suppression tactics won't matter in FL.