Iowa polling: Biden +2, Greenfield +2

[brooklynite]

Link to tweet

[book_worm]

1. What poll?

[book_worm]

2. do you have a link

because I can't find it on that Twitter link.

[calguy]

3. Good numbers so far

It'll be interesting to see how these numbers change after the conventions are over and the campaigns swing into full gear.
The next two weeks should be particularly interesting to see if trump's paramilitary invasion of Democratic cities has any effect on the numbers in these red states.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. These polls are bunk. The same pollster has Biden losing Michigan by 5.

He isn't winning PA, IA, Arizona and WI and losing Michigan by five (as their polls suggest). That's just not going to happen.

[brooklynite]

5. That's exactly the point...

It’s a Republican poll, if they have Ernst down by 2...

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Sure but then you've got to start questioning their numbers, even if they're favorable.

Just because they have her down doesn't mean she's down - just because they have Biden up in Iowa doesn't mean he's up, either.

Iowa seems less a sure thing right now than a slew of states Trump carried in 2016, including:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Georgia
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

and maybe even Texas.

[RhodeIslandOne]

10. I still think Iowa is more likely than Texas and Georgia

Being that Obama won it twice.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Iowa seems to have shifted pretty heavily to the GOP the last 12 years.

2008 was the watershed moment for Democrats in that state.

Obama won the state by ten points. They had Tom Harkin, so, the senate delegation was split Democratic & Republican. Their governor at the time was a Democrat (Chet Culver), and the Democrats had held that office since 1999. The only thing that has gone their way is the Iowa congressional delegation, as Democrats have three of the four seats.

But the state has shifted, unfortunately, and Hillary got obliterated in 2016.

It does not feel like 2012 anymore.

I think Iowa is winnable but it's not a state I would count on at this point. Mostly because Biden is polling roughly around where Hillary was four years ago. Right now, counting this current poll, Biden is averaging 45.6% of the vote and Trump is averaging 46%. So, close as all heck but in 2016, Trump led by an average of 3 points and won the state by nine.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Iowa was always unsustainable

There were nearly twice as many conservatives as liberals in that state yet we were winning via a ridiculously favorable split among moderates. Now that the moderate vote has normalized and it's slightly more than a 2/1 split among conservatives over liberals, we really need every other variable to go our way

[Drunken Irishman]

13. For sure. Iowa has more in common with the heartland in that regard than, say, Minnesota or Illinois

Though it's interesting that those supposed moderates have split more evenly between the parties despite the GOP lurching hard right the last eight years.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Iowa numbers always reminded me of Missouri numbers

2004:

Iowa 36% conservatives 19% liberals
Missouri 36% conservatives 19% liberals

2008:

Iowa 37% conservatives 19% liberals
Missouri 36% conservatives 19% liberals

I remember taking note of that at the time. I mentioned it here. There was great reluctance to accept that Iowa was less than dependable going forward. For whatever reason Iowa didn't make the turn until a decade or more after Missouri became more conservative.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

7. Yeah, that's not realistic at all.

Biden will definitely do better in Michigan than Iowa.

Hope Biden wins ALL of the so-called swing-states, of course.

[Sogo]

6. Music to this Iowan's ears!

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Regardless of the margins I am loving the very low number of undecideds

That aspect alone makes Trump's rally exponentially more difficult