*****GUARANTEED FRESH TEXAS QUINNIPAC POLL**** Biden 45%- Trump 44% With Nuggets*

[DemocratSinceBirth]

In the race for the White House, 45 percent of voters support former Vice President Joe Biden, while 44 percent back President Trump. That compares to early June when the race was equally tight and voters backed Trump 44 percent to Biden's 43 percent. In today's survey, Democrats back Biden 94 - 3 percent, independents back Biden 51 - 32 percent and Republicans back Trump 89 - 6 percent.

"With crises swirling through American society and a country deeply divided, there's no other way to slice it. It's a tossup in Texas," Malloy added.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=3667

Nuggets


-In 2016 the Republican lead was overestimated by 2.7 points:


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_clinton-5694.html


-In 2018 the Republican lead was overestimated by 4.2 points:


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html


That suggests we might be in even better position than the polls indicate

Texas is Trump's fascist party's California. Imagine if California was a tossup.

[dubyadiprecession]

1. You really know how to bum the shit out of the GOP!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Texas is their California

It's virtually impossible of a scenario of either party winning without those states.

[liskddksil]

2. One of the ways for Biden to be declared victorious on Election Night is through winning Texas

Early vote gets counted quickly in Texas, which will not be the case in many states this year. Winning Texas will immediately shut down any attempts by Trump to declare later arriving mail-in votes suspect in other States.

[uponit7771]

3. Nice !!! Would love to know the likely voter polls now

[ace3csusm]

5. If Biden Pulls out Texas it over before 4pm PST

The celebration will start early, make sure you buy extra alcohol it going to be a great night

[lame54]

6. Does that include the margin of cheating?

[duforsure]

7. As long as trump keeps threatening people with his secret police

More people will become lifelong Democrats, especially the young. They'll never forget this.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. When they don't include ideology I can't take it at face value

It remains asinine that these polls continue to use party identification instead of ideology. Party identification means nothing. Harry Enten has party identification mockery atop his twitter feed.

Voters will lie about preference. They won't hesitate to list their ideology. If we had an idea of the ideological breakdown in Texas then it would be clear if these numbers meant anything or not. But if that Texas exit poll reveals 39 or 40% conservatives, Biden has very little chance, regardless of any pre-election polling.

How can they include on irrelevant question after another without sampling ideology? It blows my mind every time.

There are promising indications in Texas. The Texas Politics Project is light years the best source for information on Texas trends. They poll frequently and do sample ideology. Here are the June 2016 and June 2020 surveys from that firm. Go to "Political Orientation" in each link. Note that liberals have soared in Texas from 2016 to 2020. But number of conservatives within the three categories have only dropped from 44% to 43%. That is Biden's basic problem. The floor for a Republican is so incredibly high in Texas. Trump basically only needs a small percentage of moderates and undecideds in that state:

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/sites/texaspolitics.utexas.edu/files/201606_poll_uttt_topline_final.pdf

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/sites/texaspolitics.utexas.edu/files/202006_poll_topline.pdf

[Gothmog]

9. Another poll shows @JoeBiden up on Donald Trump in Texas.

Link to tweet