CV-19 death projections for US for 3 scenarios (masks/social dist, some social dist, no social dist)

[iluvtennis]

(As reported by Rachel Maddow on Tuesday 7/21. Source is IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) at University of Washington in Seattle)



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Scary sh*t. These governors really need to keep the schools closed and implement remote learning. Also, all of the major hot spots (Florida, Texas, Arizona, California) need to consider re-lockdown now.

[onecaliberal]

1. I was hoping Governor Newsom would lock down California again but

Sadly he hasn’t.

[AlexSFCA]

2. we are nowhere near capacity

we don’t need to lock down (yet). If there is an indication that we are going to run out of hospital beds, then yes. We used the lockdown to ramp up medical capacity and testing, and so we are not like FL which should have a lockdown. It has to do with younger people in CA, no longer following social distancing. But the massive increase in cases is a direct result of massive protests which were driven by younger people. Lockdowns will no longer work, they are only effective for a short period of time, once you open - same shit is going to happen if not worse. Now it’s time to be creative on how to address younger folks not distancing.

[onecaliberal]

4. We are over capacity in my county. There are no ICU beds and no ventilators.

The emergency rooms are a nightmare.

By the way, we did have protests but not massive. Not everyone lives in LA and 80% of the state is back in stage 2.

The protests are necessary. People are fed up! Too bad we can’t do a general strike. Those fuckers on the right side of the isle wouldn’t be balking in morenhelp for Americans.

[AlexSFCA]

5. then shutdown can be decided on a county level

I am not saying that protests are not necessary but there is a tradeoff during the pandemic but that should not cause a shutdown. In SF bay area, there is plenty of hospital capacity so absolutely no need to shutdown and destroy restaurants that adapted to outdoor service, at least not yet. We need to continue to ramp up hospital capacity as second wave in the fall can be way worse than this.

[onecaliberal]

6. The county is run by brown shirts they will not shut down.

The people around here are too stupid to even wear masks.

[JCMach1]

3. IMHE has consistently underestimated

So consider this the extremely conservative estimate

[hunter]

7. I figure we're somewhere between the first and second number already.

The truth will be told in the actual body counts, not the reported cause of death.