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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsEstimation of Excess Deaths (JAMA 1 July)
... In this cohort study, the number of deaths due to any cause increased by approximately 122 000 from March 1 to May 30, 2020, which is 28% higher than the reported number of COVID-19 deaths ... Official tallies of deaths due to COVID-19 underestimate the full increase in deaths associated with the pandemic in many states ...
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980
Jarqui
(10,126 posts)The GOP have been playing with the numbers
And the CDC numbers are not credible. For example:
Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Those figures show 1,336,369 million deaths in the first half of 2020 - double that for a projection of 2,672,738 for 2020
Total US deaths in prior years
2012 2,543,279
2013 2,596,993
2014 2,626,418
2015 2,712,630
2016 2,744,248
2017 2,813,503
2018 2,839,205
2019 - couldn't find the figures quickly
Again, for 2020, 2,672,738 deaths is a crude projection based on first half of 2020 CDC report.
So the population went up a little since 2017-8. We have a pandemic which the CDC acknowledges has killed at least 113,000 (at the time of their report, 145,000 now) but the projected number of deaths for 2020 would be 200,000 less than 2017? CDC numbers don't make sense with CDC stats.
If the real number of dead is the missing 122,000 in the top post plus the 145,000 now, that would raise their deaths per million population from 437 to 806 - which would be second worst in the world to Belgium.
Total death figures is often how they determine the tally of a major illness like the swine flu. They know about 850 of 100,000 Americans die each year and they have been around that figure for a while. So when SARS or Swine flu or whatever comes along, the burp in the figures largely covers off what the disease that struck took in terms of lives lost.
The Republicans & Trump don't want Americans to find that out before the election - because the figures would show how the country who spends twice as much or more per capita than any other country on healthcare fucked up big time and killed a bunch of it's own citizens in an unconscionable attempt to keep the economy afloat to help their sinking reelection chances. If Americans find out what they really did, they're toast politically (if they're not already - aside from the dead heads).
If you use the past figures and compare to what the overage will be for 2020, we're probably looking at 400,000-600,000 dead Americans due to the virus by the end of 2020 - probably the worst loss of life in US history (since those loses took place in one year)
Delphinus
(11,830 posts)Glad you posted - this information needs to be known.