New ABC/WaPo poll finds huge swing in support from Trump to Biden in crucial voting blocs

[highplainsdem]

I've postsed an LBN topic about this poll already, including links to the Washington Post and ABC stories -- with the ABC story giving more details.

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/10142540802



Wanted to touch on more details from the poll here:


https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1214a22020Election.pdf

Trump's retreat since the early days of the coronavirus outbreak has been largest in one of his core groups, rural Americans, with his lead among registered voters in this group shrinking from 47 points in late March to 18 points now, 56-38%. As noted Friday, his rating for handling the pandemic also has fallen especially sharply in rural areas. (The race is 52-43%, Biden-Trump, among suburbanites, and 68-27% in urban areas, both essentially steady.)

Regional shifts also are substantial. Biden's advanced in the Midwest, from a dead heat to a 17-point lead. It’s close in the South, 50-44%, Biden-Trump, compared with a 13-point Trump lead in late March. And Biden is ahead by 15 points in the Northeast and a broad 30 points in the West.

-snip-

Biden now leads by 25 points among women, double his margin in late March, and is a non-significant +4 among men, compared with -9 among men then. This includes a broad 60-36% Biden lead among suburban women, compared with a virtual dead heat among suburban men, 49-45%, Trump-Biden.

Biden holds a 30-point lead among college graduates, 63-33%, vs. +15 points in late March. (Hillary Clinton won this group by just 10 points in 2016, 52-42%.) And Trump has gone from an 18-point lead among white registered voters to a scant 4 points now, while 94% of Black registered voters support Biden.

White Catholics, potentially a swing voter group, divide essentially evenly, 51-47%, Trump-Biden, vs. +13 for Trump in March; Trump won white Catholics by 61-37% in 2016. Trump currently does better, 61-34%, among non-college white men, but this is a group he won with 71% four years ago. Across the political spectrum, college-educated white women favor Biden by 60-38%, compared with their 51-44% vote for Clinton over Trump in 2016.

-snip-

[sarcasmo]

1. Biden up 25 points with Women. Pedal to the Metal, total GOP destruction.

[pandr32]

2. Excellent news

[RandySF]

3. The laws of political physics are kicking in.

You're not going to get away with killing 140k people.

[DanieRains]

10. And Counting

More dead by November....

[betsuni]

4. K&R

[OAITW r.2.0]

5. Keep doing stupid stuff, Donald...

Your polling #s are at a high water mark. Wait 3 months.

[Skittles]

6. who knew all it would take is hundreds of people dying every day

[Awsi Dooger]

7. I wish the election were today

Those are not logical or sustainable numbers. I realize nobody wants to hear that but I am familiar with the norms in all of those categories. Not only are the margins not within the norm most of them are outside the accepted extremes. There is going to be a recoil.

We need Trump to have at least 1-2 more debilitating topics or comments to keep his approval down.

Of course, right now the coronavirus denials he made are not considered appropriate ad material, given so many deaths. Eventually that will change and be fair game. They will be devastating spots.

If the 2016 roles were reversed the other side wouldn't give a damn. They'd be bombarding with Hillary the murderer commercials all day long, even if the death numbers were 90% lower.

[GulfCoast66]

11. In my 40 years of being a political nut I would agree.

I’m 54 and have never seen anything like this. Too many of my trump voting voter co-works can’t stand him. We have had a few guys in the ICU with Covid.

I knew Hillary was going to lose. She was just hated by too many people. But people are really scared now. For their lives and financial future.

Trump could come back, but it will take a change I can’t see him making. Law and Order, Abortion, gay marriage, Supreme Court. Normally those things excite people. But for many that means nothing. They don’t want to die or have their parents .

[Wanderlust988]

14. You do realize people are dying?

This is not a normal election year. We're in the middle of a pandemic. This atmospheric numbers for Biden don't necessarily have to come down just cause it would in a normal year. This is not a normal year. Trump's voters are finally feeling the pain of his incompetence and ignorance and they're getting sick of it.

[Demsrule86]

17. These numbers are sustainable. We have a pandemic ttat could kill a million people

by election day and depression level unemployment. And what some who mostly supported other candidates don't understand is that Biden is well known and likeable. Trump can't really convince people that Biden is the `other` He is the perfect candidate for 2020.

[oasis]

8. Landslide.

[Cha]

9. Mahalo for Posting, hpd!!

[DSandra]

12. No wonder why Trump is accelerating his plans to call for Martial Law

[renate]

13. This isn't going to be a popular opinion but...

We need to give 2016 Trump voters a soft landing.

I’m not talking about his zealots. May they burn in hell, and I don’t say that lightly.

I mean that we need to be warm and forgiving and welcoming towards people who said in 2016 “oh idk... wth” and voted Trump. Some people knew what they were voting for and rejoiced in it. But some people didn’t love Clinton but thought she was going to win and threw away a protest vote and were as horrified as we were when it all went wrong.

TL;DR: We can’t afford to alienate ANYBODY. The soul of our country is on the line. And we can choose grace, forgiveness, and redemption, which are part of the soul of the Democratic Party, and regain our country. Win-win.

[muriel_volestrangler]

15. Biden leads by 6 points in the South

That's pretty amazing. I suppose that must come from a bigger lead in Florida, and some kind of lead in Texas, which can outweigh, in a poll, the smaller states we really can't hope to win, like Mississippi. But it's good news for Florida.

[Champp]

16. Republicans need to take a long look in the mirror

Their fear and hate have uglified them, and decent Americans know it.