Biden leads Trump by 15% in new ABC Poll (No rest, please)

[RandySF]

Link to tweet

?s=20

Sahil Kapur
@sahilkapur6m
Washington Post/ABC poll
Biden 55% (+2 since May)
Trump 40% (-3)

**

Trump’s approval rating is 39% (-6) and disapproval rating is 57% (+4).

[LonePirate]

1. It's Biden +15 RV but only Biden +10 LV

That is a hefty difference between RV and LV. It speaks to an enthusiasm gap we need to eliminate.

[RandySF]

3. But he's still over 50%

[Azathoth]

4. It's always that way with Dems and GOPers

We always lead with registered voters, but apply a likely voter screen and suddenly we're neck and neck.

Republican voters turn out. Reliably. Religiously.

Democratic voters don't.

[GulfCoast66]

7. They did in 18. They will this year.

No one is sitting on the sidelines on this one. Even more that 18. Where we kicked ass.

[Azathoth]

11. They did in 2008 as well. Then they stayed home two years later

Despite numerous Democratic achievements including historic healthcare reform which is saving lives at this very moment.

Republican voters vote. Democratic voters occasionally vote.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Democratic voters vote when the presidency is on the line...

It's been that way since 1992.

But ever since the Democrats became competitive with in the presidency game, they kind of took for granted the House & Senate. It was a body they could not take for granted in the past, in the 70s and 80s, because it was the only way to check the executive branch, which was almost always run by a Republican. But Clinton won in 1992 and we finally had the presidency, except he disappointed us by 1994 and we punished him.

It's not a coincidence the Democratic nominee has won the national popular vote in all but one presidential election dating back to 1992 (2004) - and yet, have struggled in multiple midterm elections (1994, 2002, 2010 and 2014). Hell, I'm banking on Democrats again struggling in 2022 just because we'll likely have the White House again.

[Azathoth]

19. Not always, nor do they always stay home for midterms

Clinton never won an actual majority of the popular vote and he benefited from third-party candidates. Bush won twice (yes he lost the popular vote in 2000, but the margin was very slim). Trump lost the popular vote, but only because the Democratic base came out against him in the deepest blue states. Our base in competitive states during presidential elections isn't always what polls suggest it should be.

Conversely, Dems turned out heavily in 2006 and 2018. So it's not like our side doesn't understand the concept of voting during midterms.

I'm not saying Trump is going to win. All I'm saying is that for most of my adult life, Dems overperform among registered voters in every election cycle. And I suspect it's going to be even worse this year because of the "shy Trump voter" phenomenon. (I don't have hard data to prove that, just anecdotal evidence, but after awhile you start to see patterns in your personal interactions.)

And of course modern Dems have *never* won crushing victories like Reagan did. Obama was the closest we've come, and he won solid but not overwhelming majorities (even with Republicans carrying the burden of having caused the greatest recession since the Great Depression, McCain still got 46% and carried red states comfortably).

The GOP have been able to turn themselves into a death cult specifically because their voters vote reliably and constantly. Our voters vote occasionally.

[Demsrule86]

16. What short memories some have about 2010. The left abandoned Pres. Obama

Because we couldn't get a public option or single payer. And the comparison is rather puzzling as Pres. Obama was an incumbent first term president where seats are often lost in the mid term. The ACA was not popoular at first...Imagine if our side had supported president Obama or Hillary later, what good could have been accomplished. Now this election is unlike any other and Democratic voters and others will crawl across broken glass to vote for Biden and rid this country of Trump.

[Azathoth]

18. "an incumbent first term president"

Yes, exactly like 2018. The comparison is accurate. 2018 is not proof the the Dem base turns out reliably.

"The ACA was not popoular at first."

Yet it's saving lives at this very moment. It's almost as if the Democratic base punished the party for what was unambiguously is biggest achievement in a generation.

and Democratic voters and others will crawl across broken glass to vote for Biden

That's what a lot of us thought in 2016. Trump was a Loony Tunes caricature of a fascist strongman. Yet it was only deep blue states where the base poured out to oppose him.

Face it: if you think Trump is going to lose by these registered voter margins, you're deluding yourself. When they win, Democrats almost *always* win by significantly less than polls of registered voters would imply.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Na'. This is historically pretty accurate to the difference for Democrats.

Especially this far out from an election where LV models aren't as accurate.

Also, I think he leads by 11 among those for certain to vote, so, a four-point swing isn't crazy.

[Sugarcoated]

2. Same as the Quinnipiac

and several others...looks like Joe's numbers are holding and legit

[dawg day]

5. Not complacent.

.happy, but persistent.

[RandySF]

6. No worries

I'm lining up my donation strategy for the rest of the election.

[RDANGELO]

9. Looks like Trump's scorched earth strategy on Biden isn't working.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. It comes across as ridiculous

Normally Republicans pick one big lie and hammer it relentlessly. The current commercials are a scattergun desperate joke.

If Sanders were the nominee they'd have the one topic

[Cosmocat]

15. Y E P

spot on.

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. 2nd poll w/15% lead for Biden, at least the 3rd with him over 50%

IIRC, Every poll in July has Biden with a double digit lead - these aren’t outliers, this is a trend.

[highplainsdem]

12. OP in LBN with a lot more details about the poll, from both WaPo and ABC News stories:

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/10142540802

[Cha]

17. It should be LOWER.. Shame on the Racist Traitors who

prop up this perverted FASCIST.

[Tarheel_Dem]

20. K&R