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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy Trump -- Not Biden -- Might Have An Enthusiasm Problem
The Trump campaign has found its silver lining in an avalanche of awful polling numbers: Voters who support Donald Trump are enthusiastic about his candidacy.
Polls consistently show that Trumps supporters are more excited to vote for him than presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Bidens supporters are to vote for him. For example, half of Trump supporters in a recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll said they were very excited about their candidate, compared to just 27 percent of Biden backers. Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale even described their enthusiasm advantage over Biden as the most important factor in the campaign.
But the significance of this enthusiasm gap is exaggerated. Enthusiastic votes count just as much as unenthusiastic ones, meaning an enthusiasm gap would only really matter in a close election. And right now, it isnt a close election: Biden leads Trump in national polls by nearly 9 points. No enthusiasm advantage no matter how big could possibly make up for that kind of a gap.
First, while Biden voters may not be all that excited about voting for Biden, theyre very enthusiastic about voting against Trump. And that gives Biden a pretty strong edge, because Trump supporters dont despise Biden the way they despised Hillary Clinton in 2016. In fact, according to survey data from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project, the share of Trump voters who rate Biden unfavorably is consistently much lower than the share of Biden voters who rate Trump negatively nearly 30 percentage points lower as of the last survey conducted at the end of June.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-trump-not-biden-might-have-an-enthusiasm-problem/
AleksS
(1,665 posts)When they point out that no matter how unenthusiastic someone might be to vote for Joe, many many many are VERY enthusiastic to vote against Trump.
coti
(4,612 posts)No doubt in my mind.
empedocles
(15,751 posts)or just tired of trump blaring away everyday in general.