Trump was elected because some people just didn't want to vote for Hillary,

[edhopper]

or so we were told.
But now when so many people just won't vote for Trump, we are told that Biden can only win if he gives people a reason to support him, not just vote against Trump.
So which is it?

The truth is when there is an incumbent, it is always a referendum on them.

[StevieM]

1. The truth is that Hillary got swift boated.

Although nobody seems to remember it anymore, even here on DU, she had been the most popular public figure in America for years. Not just high job approval ratings--high personal favorability.

Then they swift boated the hell out of her. They capitalized on a terrorist attack. They corrupted the FBI and the State Department Inspector General's office, and especially Intelligence Community Inspector General's office. They even targeted a world-renowned charity that has saved millions of lives around the world.

Hopefully it will be harder to swift boat Biden this time around, partly because their latest round of tricks has been seen already, and it will take awhile to get the new ones up to code. But mostly because, to be perfectly blunt, he isn't a woman. Sadly, it is much easier to swift boat women.

[Hoyt]

4. Unfortunately, the swiftboating was not just GOPers. Whatever, hope it doesn't

happen again.

[oasis]

5. +1

[Jeebo]

7. She was swift-boated relentlessly for 30 years.

Starting way back when she was Arkansas first lady. One man I know told me he voted for that orange con man because "I considered the alternative". I don't understand how ANYBODY can think that arrogant liar is preferable to her, but when enough people spend decades pointing their fingers at somebody and yelling, "Whitewater!" "Ben Ghazi!" "Crooked Hillary!" "Lock her up!" eventually it builds up in the collective unconscious of the electorate. That there are so many people who distrust her so profoundly is because of long-term subliminal indoctrination. Unfortunately, it worked in 2016.

-- Ron

[edhopper]

15. This is very true

I think the reasons people said as to why they didn't vote for her were asinine. But nonetheless, they didn't.

[Kaleva]

23. Hillary was savaged here in 2008 and also in 2016

[brush]

2. This is a referendum on trump's record. It's not a good one...

and there's no misogynistic, I-can't-vote-for-Hillary feeling out there so Biden should do well.

Especially with 200,000 covid deaths by Nov. 3.

To paraphrase legendary boxer Joe Louis about an upcoming opponent—"He can run but he can't hide"—from those covid deaths.

[soothsayer]

3. Also, the idea of a female president was like masks are to maskholes.

In fact, there’s probably significant overlap in those populations.

Men with mommy issues (I think) thought Hillary sounded bossy. Being asked to cover your face feels like being punished or restricted or maybe treated like a child to some folks, who then act like defiant, bratty children.

We’re not a mature enough nation to handle a woman as president. It’s so stupid.

So... Joe doesn’t have that nonsense working against him. Plus the “idea” of a swamp-draining businessman outsider didn’t really pan out. So yeah, the incumbent thing matters.

[retread]

14. Maskholes!! I will be using that! n/t

[Olafjoy]

6. Amongst people I know there is HUGE motivation to vote against Trump

We canvassed for the midterms (2018) and an overwhelming number of people we talked to said they wanted their votes to be a referendum on Trump. Still will work very hard on GOTV but people I talk to have rage and hatred. They are very motivated (Arizona).

[zaj]

8. That's not "truth".

Campaigns work to make elections "referendum" or "choice".

Trump (or any incumbent) can successfully make a reelection campaign a "choice" election. We can't assume that a "referendum" is a given.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Hillary was slightly more popular than unpopular for a long time

That was her baseline, roughly 2-5% more favorable than unfavorable. She certainly would have been elected in 2008.

Hillary's surge in popularity was during Obama's first term. I really didn't put much stock in it because I always believe in big picture and long term, not short term trivia. When there is a spike like that after a long established tendency, the likelihood is that it will recoil instead of climbing even more.

I am surprised at Hillary's sharp drop in popularity since the election defeat. Eventually it will come back upward:

https://medium.com/@PollsAndVotes/hillary-clinton-favorability-1993-2019-95ab99c35d49

On edit: not sure why that link isn't taking fully. Might have to copy and paste in a browser window. It is a Charles Franklin article

[Caliman73]

10. Trump was "elected" for many reasons. One of which was definitely sentiment about Hillary.

Hillary Clinton is the politician treated most unfairly in the last 40 years. She did nothing to deserve the hatred and vitriol she had to endure from the right, and from the far left. She was a center left candidate with decent progressive policy credentials, but she was demonized as a radical leftist by the right and as a corporate moderate republican from the left. The baggage that was unfairly placed on her, which includes misogyny, made it possible for the Republicans to cheat enough to win the electoral college.

In any election you have to motivate your base and those relatively uninformed and apathetic voters to come out and vote. That doesn't mean just voting against someone, but voting for which candidate and which party are going to make your life better.

You are right that this election is a referendum on Trump and what he has done for the American people. Trump however, is a shameless liar and a cheater, and he will do whatever he can to hold on to power.

[leftyladyfrommo]

11. What I heard here in KCMO was that people

just didn't like the Clintons. It wasn't just Hillary.

I also heard that people wanted to shake things up. I am not sure what they meant by that.

[Lulu KC]

20. Exactly--Bill was a factor n/t

[Sancho]

12. It was a combination...and "not voting for a woman" was only part of the issue...

I blame the majority of the loss to election manipulation of the votes!!

At least in Florida, the GOP hacks the DREs, hides mailed ballots, hangs chads, and messes with the tabulators.

Registration is an issue, and so is access to polling places - but for 20+ years the repubs have literally altered the count in key states in different ways.

All they have to do is fix a few key votes in a few key states and they win another election.

[StarfishSaver]

13. So true

The consistent media frame was "She may be smart, accomplished, highly qualified and has solid plans and good policies, BUT she has her flaws and people just don't like her ..."

On the other hand, their frame of Trump was "He may have his flaws, he has no solid plans or policies, and people don't like him, BUT he speaks his mind and is a refreshing alternative because people can't stand Hillary.""

And now, it's "Trump's been a disaster, he still has no plans, and people can't stand him, but Biden needs to do much more than sell himself as an alternative to Trump."

[brooklynite]

16. Who is telling you this?

The first statement is a true analysis of the 2016 Election. The second is an opinion (which btw I haven’t heard from anyone).

[edhopper]

17. Not here

but seen it on places like FB and some opinion pieces.

[brooklynite]

18. Emphasis on "opinion"

[edhopper]

21. Sure

And I am countering that opinion that Biden can only win by making people vote for him and not against Trump.

[itcfish]

19. I think it was a combination of factors

1. The media kept saying she was going to win by a landslide. When people hear this they get complacent and don't bother going to the polls.

2. The racism that still exist in this country

3. The FBI Comey leak

4. The Russian smear campaign

5. Misogyny

[Proud Liberal Dem]

22. Plus

the vote got carved up by 4 candidates. I hesitate to call Johnson or Stein "major party" candidates but some people's votes went to them, which possibly deprived Hillary of some votes- and Hillary only lost by a few thousand votes in some of the swing states. The major problem was that a lot of people decided to vote against Hillary (or not vote at all) rather than for Trump but, in the end, the result ended up being the same. I will never understand the massive amount of hate against her.