Even though I'm not a teacher and I don't have children in school,

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

I am very aware of the whole debate about going back to school.

And I understand that distance learning has been somewhat less than successful so far, although it may well improve.

Science fiction has long postulated that in the future what we currently call distance learning or virtual classrooms may well be the norm. Here's a link to a wonderful story about that by the Isaac Asimov, called "The Fun They Had".

http://web1.nbed.nb.ca/sites/ASD-S/1820/J%20Johnston/Isaac%20Asimov%20-%20The%20fun%20they%20had.pdf

[cayugafalls]

1. I remember reading that in an anthology long ago. I can't remember which one.

But it had hundreds of super short sci-fi stories.

Oh what fun I had...

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

4. Possibly in

Earth Is Room Enough, which I thought I had, but is not on the shelf where it would be if I currently owned it. The only Asimov short story collection I find is Buy Jupiter and Other Stories. In the 1950s my older brother belonged to the Science Fiction Book Club, and I suspect he got that first collection back then, and that's where I first saw it.

[cayugafalls]

7. It was in my copy of 50 Short Science Fiction Tales.

I found it after posting. Very old copy from the 1960's. Yup, I'm old.

It was an anthology of stories from 300 to 3000 words in length by various authors with Isaac Asimov and Groff Conklin as editors and contributors.

I might even have a copy of Earth Is Room Enough, I'll need to look now.

Thanks for the memories!

[RockRaven]

2. There certainly are a lot of different factors in play...

And how one weighs one factor versus another is to some degree a value judgment, insofar as some of the factors cannot be directly compared, and of course people cannot always agree about how to weigh different factors because of that.

That said, the Trump admin and Repuke governors are in no way making good faith arguments, they are simply denying reality and ignoring the carnage which will result.

[cayugafalls]

3. The biggest hurdle for distance learning is research and experimentation.

My son is in college and does research for his degree program and takes lots of classes that require labs for in lab experimentation.

Not something that is easily transferable to a home school or distance model. A simple chemistry lab becomes a social distance nightmare if many students need to be accommodated.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

6. Labs. Yes, they are a huge problem.

My son is currently in graduate school for astronomy, and in the past he's TA'd astronomy labs. Fortunately for him, he is now strictly an RA, Research Assistant, and he assures me the money is in place for him for the next two years, at the end of which he should have his degree.

But yeah, any lab is going to be a nightmare. That is absolutely not something that can be done via the internet, at least not in any meaningful way. And breaking up the students into small enough groups to do the labs is a similar nightmare. At the least you'd need to do twice as many in-person labs, maybe three times as many.

My best guess is that most education is going to be in a holding pattern for at least another year or two. Maybe even three.

[cayugafalls]

8. Congratulations on your sons achievements!

My son is studying Neuroscience and is in his third year of undergrad with UT at Austin in the Honors program. Sounds like my sons goals are similar to where your son is at right now. He works night and day to get to that next level, so I know how hard your son must have worked to be where he is.

You must be a very proud father.

I know UTA is working hard to get the lab situation worked out, but research has been impacted and labs are still up in the air at this point as we are waiting to hear how they play out.

I think your best guess is correct. Hopefully, something will happen on the vaccine front and we can get going again.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

10. Thank you. I am

a proud mother, despite my screen name. His father is likewise proud.

The other night we talked and I asked him about eventual job prospects in his field. His specific area of research is exo-planets, which is very hot right now. There are any number of places he could wind up doing just exo-planets, and even more in related areas. He told me that his area of expertise ticks a box that would tend to exempt him from most restrictions, even these days. He didn't directly say it, but I got the impression he'd be very happy to relocate to another country. I just hope that wherever he might wind up, his mother could follow. (His father and I are divorced.) He's my only child, and since I'm currently in New Mexico, and he's in Virginia, I just don't want to be so far away from him. Before this pandemic it was bad enough. Right now there's no way of knowing when we might see each other again, as neither one of us is willing to get on an airplane, and the driving distance is a bit formidable.

It helps to be old enough (71) to be able to talk a long view of things.

[cayugafalls]

18. Forgive my assumption.

I usually do not assume.

It is funny you mention a possible out of country relocation for your son. My son speaks several languages, spanish, french, german, chinese and he has indicated his desire to move out of country as well after his college work is finalized. My son is also an only child.

I hope you get to see your son as soon as safety permits.

Be well.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

23. That's okay.

I know that my screen name is masculine.

A good friend here, the other day, told me about some questions she had for him the next time he's visiting. I've given each of them the other's phone numbers, because it's going to be a lot longer than we'd like before he's out here. I do hope they talk, because her questions about astronomy and cosmology are exactly the ones he's very good at answering.

I'd had tentative plans to visit him this summer or fall, but they aren't going to happen. Sigh. I'm not the only person missing grown children. Another friend of mine here had been planning to move to the Boston area by the end of summer to be nearer his grown daughter and her wife. That move is on indefinite hold because of this. His son is in England, much farther away. These are just two stories among the millions of separated families.

[soothsayer]

5. It's not like it's forever. Get the freaking virus under control.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

9. It's going to be a lot longer than people think

before we are past this.

I keep on offering this analogy: Pretend it's the spring of 1939, and we're planning to go to Europe next year. It's going to be a fantastic trip. We'll go to London, Paris, Rome, Venice, the Riviera, lots of places. We've been looking forward to this for several years now, and can finally pull it off next year. Hooray!

But then September rolls around, and WWII breaks out. Darn. Clearly we won't be going to Europe next year. But we're optimistic that the war won't last long and we'll get there in 1941.

Unfortunately the war lasts, and lasts, and doesn't finally end in Europe until May, 1945. The soonest we'll make our long-planned trip is 1946, maybe a year or two later. And when we finally get there, it's a completely different Europe than if we'd gone in 1939. Nothing is the same.

And that's what it's going to be like for us. When this is finally over, nothing will be the same. Don't kid yourself. Don't think that everything will go back to the way it was, because it won't.

Getting the virus under control isn't going to be that simple or easy, even though I know there are countries that seem to have done so. Meanwhile, in most of the world, things are just getting under way. India and Brazil and much of Africa are going to be blood baths. Maybe so many people will die that there will be an actual reduction in population. But keep in mind that every single day at least 350,000 babies are born. As terrible as Covid-19 is, it's not coming even remotely close to countering the births. If it does, if we see Black Death levels of mortality, then all bets are off. In modern times we have experienced absolutely nothing like that.

[2naSalit]

11. +1

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

13. Thank you.

I keep on posting this, or telling it to people I know. It's incredibly important that we understand that we're in it for the long run.

In the model of "The 1900 House" there was a series a while back which put an English family into WWII. I forget how long they were kept in that time frame, although obviously it was a great deal shorter than the real time of the war. Even so, and even though the participants would have been very clear on the real timeline, it was still quite a slog for them. Especially with things like tobacco. Most, or maybe even all of the adults in the show were smokers, which would have been quite realistic for the WWII time, and the shortage of tobacco hit them very hard. For real smokers back then it would have been a genuine hardship. And while it might be easy to be dismissive of that, the hardship of limited food for children was huge.

We did go through temporary shortages of things back in March, most of which have gone away now. I'm sure I'm not the only person who buys ahead just a bit more than I used to. That's a habit that will probably never leave most of us.

[soothsayer]

14. Spanish flu died out in a year or so. It's hard to say.

It’ll go better if we (the world, but starting right here at home would be awesome) knock it down considerably. Soonish.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

16. The 1918 flu epidemic, as terrible as it was,

at least occurred within the context of people already having or acquiring immunity. Which seems somewhat iffy with the Covid-19.

The most important reason that most older people did not get the influenza then was that about 50 years earlier there had been a similar (probably another H1N1 virus) epidemic, and those who lived then either got it and were now immune, or somehow were immune to begin with. Similarly, the very last smallpox outbreak in this country in 1948, there were indications that a smallpox vaccination within the prior 50 years rendered at least some immunity.

I'm not directly comparing smallpox to flu, and absolutely not comparing either one to Covid-19. Which is a completely different kettle of fish, or whatever the appropriate metaphor would be. I know there's a lot of speculation that those who get it and recover may not have lasting immunity. It's hard to be sure, but we're still far too soon in this thing to really know.

Clearly, until we have effective treatments AND a vaccine, we are all going to be at risk.

[cayugafalls]

20. Great post.

We could also see another Pandemic hit or a more deadly viral mutation of this current strain before this one even fully abates.

[frazzled]

12. The issues for el-hi

are less about the teaching than on the participation of students.

The biggest problem we’ve had in my city is lack of access to devices and reliable high speed internet connections (our district is more than 85% minority). Efforts have been made to ameliorate that, with the distribution of laptops, tablets, and installation of free hi-speed internet to the neediest.

The district is also sending out digital devices to its “highest-need students” so they can participate in online learning opportunities, according to the Mayor’s Office. More than 100,000 devices — including laptops and tablets — will be sent to homes.

https://www.newsbreak.com/illinois/chicago/news/0OayxbLR/cps-sending-100000-laptops-tablets-to-students-to-learn-at-home-a-sign-schools-could-stay-closed-for-longer

Chicago Connected is a groundbreaking program that will provide free high-speed internet service to approximately 100,000 Chicago Public Schools (CPS) students. This first-of-its-kind program will be one of the largest and longest-term efforts by any city to provide free, high-speed internet over the course of four years to increase internet access for students.

According to Census data, an estimated 100,000 students lack access to high-speed internet in Chicago. In order to narrow the digital divide for CPS families, Chicago Connected will provide up to four years of high-speed internet for CPS families who are most in need. Students who are eligible for the program and are planning to enroll in summer school in 2020 will be prioritized as the program rolls out in the coming weeks.

‘Chicago Connected’ will begin notifying eligible families beginning Monday, June 29, 2020 with the goal of connecting as many of the 100,000 students as possible prior to the 2020-21 school year.

https://cps.edu/chicagoconnected/Pages/home.aspx

The other problem is participation: I saw one teacher who said that fewer than 20% of her enrolled students had attended class in a summer session. That’s a big problem.

My husband’s undergraduate and graduate students had no such participation issues (although students back in their home countries had to do the courses asynchronously, from recordings of the live class sessions, because of time differences and occasional unreliability of Internet). 100% of his students submitted their final papers and completed all work.

This is not the case for many younger students, and I don’t know what the fix is.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

15. Thank you for that.

I've read various things where teachers say that all but the very best of their students have done poorly with distance learning.

I am not a teacher, and so anything I might suggest would probably be at best dumb. One issue is clearly that this came up very suddenly, and while teachers all seem to have done a completely amazing job of switching to distance/internet teaching and learning, it's sufficiently new that we have no norms for it. Perhaps this will become the norm. And when I say that I realize that I am overlooking a lot of huge obstacles to this, such as actual internet access and computers/tablets at home for the students to use.

Even if, as in the most optimistic of scenarios, this kind of distance/internet teaching and learning comes about, it's not going to be an easy transition.

[JHB]

17. There was a 1967 short film that got a lot of predictions right...

...as well as more than a few wrong. That includes "distance learning" but they took a rosier view to it, or at least assumed more habituation on keeping the kids to task.

"1999 A.D." sponsored by the Philco-Ford corporation, and appliance and electronics maker that long ago succumbed to corporate acquisitions.

[ChazII]

19. My third grade students read

this story. It was part of the reading text book.

[canetoad]

21. Appreciate the link, thank you

And will read later.

Reminds me of another Asimov story: Franchise.
https://archive.org/details/1955-08_IF/page/n3/mode/2up

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

22. Oh, yes. That story.

I think it should be required reading every election year.