Internal Republican polls currently show Trump losing in Kansas!

[SouthernCal_Dem]

<....>

In addition to public surveys showing him losing decisively to Joseph R. Biden Jr. in a number of battleground states, private Republican polls in recent weeks show the president struggling even in conservative states, leading Mr. Biden by less than five points in Montana and trailing him in Georgia and even Kansas, according to G.O.P. officials who have seen the data.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/02/us/politics/trump-2020-campaign-problems.html

[coti]

1. Wuuuutt....oh, come on.

I do have to say, though- this is why we picked Joe Biden. He's palatable to the type of people who might finally abandon Trump.

[flibbitygiblets]

20. It definitely doesn't hurt in the red states that Biden is old and white

Don't know that I'd say that's the entire reason we picked him, but he'll be a much easier "sell" for the conservatives. Just a few more cycles and fixing the voter suppression BS, and we can finally get minorities and women into higher offices in droves!

[ProcureTheReceptacle]

21. Biden's sweet-ol'-grandpa feel definitely helps.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

23. Right.

Which is partly why I'm worried about the choice of a woman of color for the VP slot. There is still an enormous amount of racism in this country, and it's not only with Republicans. This is one time when the VP choice might turn voters away.

Speaking only for myself, the VP choice has always been irrelevant, even in the years (2004 comes to mind) when I was genuinely appalled at the choice. But I was still going to vote for the Democratic ticket.

[Quixote1818]

2. Trump has got to be down in Iowa then. I don't know about winning Kansas but Iowa

is probably going to go our way then if Kansas is in play. Certainly the Omaha district in Nebraska which is one electoral vote.

[tblue37]

13. We did elect a Democratic governor once we got rid of Brownback. nt

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Iowa going the wrong way

Even as far back as 2014 it was reporting 41% conservatives, up from 38% in 2007.

https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/state/iowa/political-ideology/

I wish Pew would do an updated version of this. It is particularly valuable in states that otherwise are not exit polled. I look at the numbers all the time. Even Utah has dropped dramatically in percentage of conservatives, believe it or not.

[smirkymonkey]

3. Now if Ghislaine Maxwell manages to survive long enough to spill the dirt, Trump and the

entire republican party could implode. Not to mention that little book coming out at the end of the month, and a number of other things that can and probably will go wrong between now and November.

Things aren't looking very good for Twitler, are they?

[mucifer]

4. we have 4 months for G-d knows what to happen

[coti]

6. And there's still another two and a half months after the election. nt

[ProcureTheReceptacle]

15. What are you implying?

[Ilsa]

27. There was a report on independent

political strategists and journalists playing "war games" scenarios after trump loses. They included him using Barr and republican governors to throw wrenches into the normally peaceful transition of government. They concluded there is a possibility that trump would try to tie up the transition in legal channels until Biden guarantees he won't be prosecuted.

[Norbert]

5. the last time a Dem won in Kansas was LBJ in 1964.

I doubt Kansas will go in the Biden column but it I can't help but laugh that the orange menace need to allocate resources now in a state he should have no problem winning.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

25. On the other hand, Kansas has elected Democratic governors since then.

Kathleen Sibelius.

And the 3rd Congressional district has been reliably Democratic since 2000.

Personal story. My sons have an auto immune disorder alopecia areata. It causes hair loss. Both of them have the most extreme form, universalis. Think of it as the entire universe of hair gone: no eyebrows, no eyelashes, no body hair, not just no hair on the head. Neither son has ever had to shave.

We belong to the National Alopecia Areata Foundation, which holds yearly conferences. Every three or four years or so they are in Washington DC, for the express purpose of being able to lobby representatives and senators. Our lobbying was always to ask that money, already appropriated to NIH, would be used in appropriate research into this disease.

The first time I did this, Vince Snowbarger, a Republican, was my representative. My recollection is that we were received with indifference, as if "Who gives a flying fuck about alopecia?" was the order of the day. It was maddening, as diseases of any kind are NOT partisan issues. Well, not long after Snowbarger lost his seat to Dennis Moore, a Democrat. I'd actually done a bit of volunteer work on Moore's campaign. The next trip to DC and lobbying on Capital Hill was very different. We were treated with dignity and respect by the Moore staffer who met with us. Not so much the two Senators, both Republicans. One staffer made it crystal clear that meeting with us had been dumped on him. In the other office, I wound up waiting for over an hour (not their fault, a long irrelevant story) and had the interesting experience of watching the sweet young thing who was receptionist and phone person speak politely to various people, then turn to us and trash the other Senator. As if they weren't in the same party. Oh, my.

I have been known to add "Lobbyist" to my resume.

[lastlib]

30. Snowbooger was a nasty piece of work...

I'm not a bit surprised that he blew you off. I could say he was the archetypical right-winger nut-job, although Steve King, (R-IA asshole) could out-nasty him somewhat.

I'm not sure I've felt strong enough earthquakes to buy that tRump is losing Kansas, though I suppose it's possible. I do think he's losing his grip on Johnson County, and that's telling, though still wouldn't bet on him not carrying it. We shall see, as they say......

[ProcureTheReceptacle]

7. Nice!

Glad to see this. Wasn't there that one good-looking Missouri poll a while back as well?

[Norbert]

8. Welcome to DU

[ProcureTheReceptacle]

10. Thank you

[Buckeye_Democrat]

9. That poll is probably wrong, but we'll see!

[Awsi Dooger]

11. I've noted the possible ideological shift in Kansas

This Pew link has Kansas at 39% conservatives and 27% liberals. Both would be remarkably favorable numbers, even though they don't look great at first glance:

https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/state/kansas/political-ideology/

Those are basically the same splits reported by Arizona in the 2016 exit poll. Dropping below 40% conservatives is what I always look for toward a state that may be legitimately trending our way. The 27% number is an incredible bonus. That matches or slightly exceeds the national percentage of self-identified liberals.

But I am hesitant to fully accept this because it is only one sample, and only 300 people, and really hasn't been evidenced at the ballot box. Kansas voted for Trump by 21 points in 2016. If the state were trending our way, even without any emphasis, I would have expected that deficit to be in the teens.

I don't know a heck of a lot about Kansas demographics because the state is never exit polled. Obviously the governor's race in 2018 was promising.

The handful of blue areas in Kansas probably hold a higher percentage of the statewide vote than I realized. That is probably what is going on.

[lindysalsagal]

17. 300 people can't predict who's gonna show up to vote.

But it's a good sign.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. I don't care about turnout

I realize that places me in a severe minority around here. But I have wagered on politics since 1992 using ideological breakdown and situational angles. Keep it simple. Everything else takes care of itself

[Scruffy1]

22. I was born there and went to college there.

Kansas City, Kansas is reliably Democratic. It's Johnson County neighbors will go for Biden. Topeka and Wichita could swing Democratic. It's like most states with a huge rural/urban split in the vote.

[onetexan]

24. Agree. My aunt lives there and the bigger cities, as usual, tend to lean left.

Wish it's neighbor state Arkansas would do the same. My inlaws are there and probably the only few liberals outside of it's only major city - Little Rock.

[lastlib]

31. Douglas County, 3rd District anchor, home of KS University,

is a liberal bastion--Sharice David is the 3rd's Rep. If Johnson County goes strong for Biden, Kansas *just might* swing our way, but I'm not ready to bet any money on it. I'd want to see a good bit more trump down-slide before I'd make the bet.

[Cha]

12. WTF is the Matter with Montana?!

Thank you gop Leakers!

[MuseRider]

14. Living in Kansas

and the last I looked he was still up enough that I stopped paying attention, it was SO DAMNED DISAPPOINTING. If this is true I will just faint. Seriously, I cannot imagine that Trump could win anywhere. Even here it seems hard to believe but believe it I did. I will need reviving if Kansas goes for Biden. Fingers crossed.

[Botany]

19. In just world Trump should lose almost every..

... state by double digits.

Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Montana.... don't count.

South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and Texas should all be in play because their minority and Hispanic populations.

The Great Plains states will be problematic because of Trump's trade deals with China.

Trump loses 10 to 100+ votes with every C-19 death.

[jorgevlorgan]

26. tell me again that 70 senate seats is impossible?

I mean it probably is, but this is incredible.

[budkin]

28. Kansas? I don't buy that

Come on.

[SouthernCal_Dem]

29. Kansas elected a Dem governor in the last election

Believe it.