Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is 'a substantial undercount' of actual tally, Yale study finds

[Mike 03]

CNBC
PUBLISHED WED, JUL 1 2020 11:41 AM EDT
UPDATED 29 MIN AGO

The 781,000 total deaths in the U.S. in the three months through May 30 were nearly 19% higher than what would normally be expected, the study said.

The number of excess deaths from any causes were 28% higher than the official tally of U.S. Covid-19 deaths during those months.

The number of confirmed U.S. deaths due to the coronavirus is substantially lower than the true tally, according to a study published Wednesday in JAMA Internal Medicine.

Using National Center for Health Statistics data, researchers at Yale University compared the number of excess U.S. deaths from any causes with the reported number of weekly U.S. Covid-19 deaths from March 1 through May 30. The numbers were then compared with deaths from the same period in previous years.

Researchers found that the excess number of deaths over normal levels also exceeded those attributed to Covid-19, leading them to conclude that many of those fatalities were likely caused by the coronavirus but not confirmed. State reporting discrepancies and a sharp increase in U.S. deaths amid a pandemic suggest the number of Covid-19 fatalities is undercounted, they said.

“Our analyses suggest that the official tally of deaths due to Covid-19 represent a substantial undercount of the true burden,” Dan Weinberger, an epidemiologist at Yale School of Public Health and a lead author of the study, told CNBC. Weinberger said other factors could contribute to the increase in deaths, such as people avoiding emergency treatment for things like heart attacks. However, he doesn’t think that is the main driver.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/official-us-coronavirus-death-toll-is-a-substantial-undercount-of-actual-tally-new-yale-study-finds.html

This is simply a disaster.

[soothsayer]

1. That rash of fatal heart attack home deaths in nyc in April was 800% higher than normal

[Newest Reality]

2. With the botched job...

With the botched job by the White House, Tusk Farce and various Replauglican Governors, we are now at the point of seeing exponential growth: 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, etc.

Rather than nationally hunkering down with some sort of sensible containment strategies, it now is becoming a free-for-all in several large states, which then increases the likelihood of spillover and cross-contamination to the states that have managed it well, so far, which will force them to increase their lockdown measures, etc.

We could be at some sort of decent containment stage right now overall; instead the gross negligence has us in one long and indefinite first wave rather than being in preparation for the second one anticipated in Fall.

This is very far from over. Plan accordingly.

[2naSalit]

6. Initially I figured three years...

Now we're looking at five minimum.

[Newest Reality]

7. You know...

I used to think eighteen-months or so, now, all things considered, I tend to agree with you. There was some optimism about it earlier when the blue states were getting some handle on it.

We won't see this in the rear view for an extended period and with that new, novel swine flu being monitored in pigs, the changes we will have to make and live with may be the wave of the future, and maybe, just maybe climate change is facilitating this, as well. The biosphere is not well.

[duforsure]

3. trump and the republicans

Are serial liars, corrupt ,and traitors to this county. The American people will punish these people pretty badly when Nov. gets here. This will never be forgotten. We deserve the truth in our government, and not corruption running wild.

[Stallion]

4. Shocking that Texas has Such a High Unattributed Death Rate

Texas is running a scam-their numbers for Cases v Deaths are so far outside the believable norm in comparison to just about every other state, country and region without any logical reason

[magicarpet]

5. The numbers need to go down so trDump looks better,..

.... if it is a Covid death just blame the death on another cause.

Four more year,.. four more years,...

USA,.. USA,.. USA !!!

[crickets]

8. K&R for the post and the discussion.

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. You can compare with other countries here

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441 (Financial Times, but not paywalled)

The dates for which figures are available vary between countries, so that should be taken into account. They have USA at 25% above normal through May 23 (Yale went up to May 30, and had 28%). The UK had 49% to June 12. France 24% to June 7. Spain 56% to June 7; Italy 43% (but only to April 29), Germany 6% to May 24. Ecuador and Peru are over 100%.

The overall figure for the USA up to the end of May is thus better than some large European countries, though worse than Germany. The worrying thing is the current increase in US cases, which seems likely to show up as an increase in deaths soon.

[ProfessorGAC]

10. Insurance Cos. Have Been Saying This...

...for a month!
Even though they have contingencies in their actuarial models for mass death, this far exceeds the contingency value.
But, life insurance payouts are higher by COVID numbers plus at least another 30,000.
Because of how insurance companies manage premium revenue, the cash flow people there are running around with their hair on fire.
It's because they guessed 40 or 50 thousand in the epidemic scenario, they got 80-90k more COVID deaths, plus another 30-35,000.
So, I think this Yale study is confirmation of what many already thought to be the case.