Please ignore the national polls

[edhopper]

they are meaningless. There are 5 or 6 key swing States that will determine the election. Like Hillary, winning the General Election won't matter. This can be decided by a few thousand votes out of millions. And the true vote can't be counted on. We are also fighting a GOP that will do anything to win. Expect suppression and cheating in spades.

It is a sad state of affairs, but this is where we are, the choice of the American people is not the deciding factor anymore.

We cannot get overconfident from national polls.

We must stay ever vigilant.

We must GOTV and overwhelm their corruption.

[TristanIsolde]

1. Just hold the blue wall in PA, WI and MI

We can day dream about "flipping Texas" later

[Yavin4]

14. Like in baseball, TX is that state just outside the strike zone.

Chase it and you will strike out.

[The_Counsel]

21. Some Good Batters Can Hit That Outside Pitch, Though...

No, it's not easy, but it can be done.

The Biden camp should take a page from Obama and Dean's playbook and try to win every state in reach.

But that's just my $0.02...

[Scruffy1]

38. I think Texas is in play this year.

I live in El Paso, which is heavily Democratic. Houston, Austin, San Antonio and Dallas are majority Democratic and this election is a whole lot different than the 2018 debacle. A recession and plain old burnout. The key is the women. It's a huge state with more people than New York and has 38 electoral votes. You only need about five percent more to shift it into the Democratic column.

[Lonestarblue]

41. Plus, here in Texas the Republicans have mismanaged the virus response.

Now they’re having to walk back some comments on no need to wear masks, and Abbott is finally getting concerned about the number of cases. Like all states, the coffers are being drained from lack of sales and other taxes, but maybe Abbott—and the evil Paxton who wants seniors to sacrifice themselves for the economy—are beginning to realize that dead people buy nothing and pay no taxes.

Abbott also did nothing after the mass murder in El Paso. Perhaps people are getting tired of electing officials who say a lot but do very little. I would be thrilled to see Biden win Texas because then it's definitely game over for Trump. And Biden winning Florida would kick a bucket load of sand in Trump’s face after he changed his residence to Florida to try to get more votes.

[sop]

2. Vote like your life depends on it...because it does.

[PRETZEL]

3. Absolutely agree

and unlike the Clinton Campaign, I think the Biden Campaign needs to have a war chest sufficient to call for recounts in these states. Not full state recounts, but targeted recounts in areas where the largest voting populations exists.

[BComplex]

8. THIS IS SO IMPORTANT!!! SAY THIS AGAIN & AGAIN!! (Ok. I'm done shouting.)

But the recount process has to be ready on day one in any area where there has been hinky stuff going on with the votes, the rights of voters, or the machines.

[Squinch]

4. Kick and agree. We have to win by a margin that they can't cheat and hide it.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. They are not meaningless

They tell us a ton about the state of the race, they provide valuable data to the campaigns, and they energize or depress voters. The states determine who wins, but the national polls are still very valuable.

And this cannot be overstated at this time, Trump is prone to make most of his decisions based on polls, seeing himself down double digits forces him to make mistakes, he's easily baited by ads and by polls.

[Mike 03]

6. Thank you

Anyone who wants to ignore the polls is welcome to.

I'm not ignoring the polls.

I'm going to allow the polls to motivate me and continue to work like my life depends on it and continue to make donations to my candidates.

Paying attention to the polls and working hard are not opposite concepts. They are complimentary.

When Serena Williams steps onto a tennis court, she believes she's going to win. It doesn't make her play less hard.

[edhopper]

11. It's the State by State polls

we must look at.

[Johnny2X2X]

16. You can't look at both?

State polls are valuable for the campaign, but national polls tell a lot too.

Another aspect is the psychological impact. People are depressed and suffer from anxiety because of the Orange Menace in the White House, seeing Biden +14 in an A+ rated poll eases some of that anxiety and can help get out the vote.

[edhopper]

19. I worry some will think it is in the bag

and not vote. As happened with Hillary.

Over confidence is a danger.

[Johnny2X2X]

22. The opposite is usually true

A large lead makes the winning side work harder, helps them raise more money, and energizes the voters and campaign. A large deficit causes the team behind to lose energy, hurts their fund raising, and causes people to give up.

If Trump were up 10.0+ right now the Dems would be struggling to find donations and workers for their campaigns.

[ProfessorGAC]

48. Not Likely

First, PINO is such a polarizing figure, those that want him gone are going to vote just to be sure.
Second, it's human nature to back a winner.
Swing voters seeing a clear frontrunner are just as likely to commit to the winner.
Add one & two and it suggests complacency & overconfidence are not huge concerns.

[malaise]

32. THIS n/t

[StarfishSaver]

7. I'm not setting a lot of store by then, BUT they are good for the soul

I'd much rather Biden be 10 points ahead in a meaningless national poll than 10 points behind.

But you're right - we can't get over-confident.

[uponit7771]

9. K&R, I wish there was a swing state polling index vs national polling.

[edhopper]

13. I don't know if it leans one way or another

https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

[Kahuna]

10. #AllHandsOnDeck

[Silent3]

12. No, I won't ignore national polls

All we have at this stage is rough indicators anyway. As rough indicators go, national polls are as good as any. They're definitely a good indicator of the direction of public sentiment.

And despite the obvious flaws of the stupid electoral system we've inherited, the electoral vote has only ever broken with the popular vote in close races. That makes wide margins in national polls a good sign.

Oooooohhh nooooesssss!!11!!1! I said (oh, the horror!) GOOD SIGN <shudder!>.

I'm sick and tired of this often repeated, but totally unproven notion that it's a terrible, vote-destroying, complacency-inducing thing to ever think that anything is <gasp!> a good sign, as if only desperate people feeling doomed work hard to win an election, and hopeful feeling people stay home, giving up all responsibility and desire to GOTV.

It's bullshit. We have plenty of real things to worry about, but seeing hope in national polls isn't one of them.

[edhopper]

15. Look for hope in the State polls

the national polls are skewed by the big Blue States.

[Silent3]

17. I'll look for hope wherever I choose, thank you very much

And it's not like I ignore state polls either -- which are also looking very good for us.

[The_Counsel]

18. Actually, National Polls Do Have SOME Use/Meaning

While they don't tell you who's going to win the election and by how much, they DO give us a general consensus of the potential electorate. It also gives the candidates an idea of the work they have to do and how much.

And say what you want about the 2016 national polls: They were correct for the most part. They had Clinton winning by about 2.5%. Sadly, we also learned that it's possible to be ahead by that much nationally and still lose in the Electoral College.

The state polls tell us more, yes, but we should ask ourselves: Is it really possible to be ahead by double-digits nationally and still lose in the Electoral College? Gore lost in 2000, but his national lead was--what?--0.5%? Clinton's national lead in an EC loss (again, ~2.5%) was actually the largest in history if I'm not mistaken.

Do y'all realize how much shenanigans have to be at play to erase a 12-point national lead? The math just won't add up. It would take sweeping ALL of the battleground states, breaking the "firewall," AND flipping states that are expected to go overwhelming for the opponent (for Trump, that means flipping states like CA, MA, MD, NY). The point is to erase a lead that large would take ALL THREE. Two out of three will not do.

[edhopper]

20. Last time it only took

3 close States by less than 70,000 votes.

So Trump can loose NY and CA by tens of millions of votes and still win.

[The_Counsel]

24. Again....Hillary's National Lead Was Only 3% the Day Before the Election.

That actually held. The polls were tightening in Rust Belt over the two weeks before Election Day. Iowa slipped away. Ohio slipped away. Trump actually stopped campaigning in WI and everyone assumed it was lost for him and didn't bother watching the polling there. Clinton damn-near lost MINNESOTA! Never would have thought that until it actually happened. The Trump campaign said he had a chance in MI and everyone laughed. Thought the guy had lost his damn mind. Well, he HAD, but he still won. Maybe it was the tainted water, but there were enough MI voters who wanted to "take their country back" to flip it in the idiot's favor...

Fast forward to 2020 and the opponent is Joe Biden, who actually has inroads in all those states mentioned (saving Iowa, I guess). Breaking the Blue Wall there is a steeper hill to climb for Trump there. He'll still try, but he really doesn't have a choice. Otherwise, he'll have to run on his track record--and we know THAT'S a no-go...

The longer Biden holds leads this solid, the more difficult for Trump to close the gap. It will take major shenanigans, and the entire country has known about those for the past 1-3 years.

[Demsrule86]

28. Biden is leading in all three states. Michigan in particular.

[Demsrule86]

29. We also didn't have a bitter drawn out primary this time...and Biden carried voters in the

Mid West and other places that Hillary never did.

[Jake Stern]

23. Go back and look at 2016

Hillary was spanking Trump in the polls and it looked like her election to lose.

[The_Counsel]

25. I'll Look Again, but I Don't Think Hillary Led by as Many as 12 Points at Any Time

I think her high water mark was more like 7 points, and even that shrank in the last weeks before the election. Whenever she got too much of a lead, something happened. WikiLeaks. The Comey letter. It was always something...

Even now, we haven't heard the last of Hunter Biden and Burisma. There's nothing there, but it won't matter. The Trump campaign will find a way to keep their rabid base engaged and try to depress Biden's base. What else can they do?

[Amishman]

30. look again, with the exception of Wisconsin, the key states that went trump were polling tight

2016 we were fooled by both the public dialog and by the national polls into thinking the race was over before voting started. The state level polls showed a far tighter race than the national polls and much discussed models projected. The polls and models all missed a turnout surge with white rural voters. It decided the election.

2016 Final RCP Poll averages:

Hillary up 2.1% in PA.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

Trump up 0.4% in FL.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

Hillary up 3.6% in MI.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html

The only one that surprised from outside the margin of error was WI, which had Hillary by 6% prior to the election and nothing showing a Trump lead
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

Ohio was a bit of a surprise in the margin of victory, but the polls hinted at a late surge there with the last Emerson poll showing Trump by 7.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html

[ProfessorGAC]

49. And HRC Was Never At 50% Or Higher...

...in national polls.
Biden, in more than one poll is 50% or greater, with double digit leads.

[Happy Hoosier]

26. They are NOT meaningless.

This always irritates me. National polls matter to assess overall national sentiment. But they are not determinative. We must do all the things you listed, but data is valuable. And frankly, seeing that our side is making inroads does not engender complacency in me, but rather enthusiasm. I feel like the maybe it's not fucking hopeless after all. Morale matters.

[Demsrule86]

27. Please stop. They are not meaningless. Why don't you ignore the national polls while the rest of us

can decide for ourselves.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

37. Hmm. Agree. But how could you have worded that more respectfully?

[Demsrule86]

42. I don't consider my post disrespectful...but you are on the same page are you not? I have seen your

recent post on polls...and as I told you at the time, I disagree...doom and gloom does not increase voter turnout...just the opposite.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

52. Do you Honestly think that people would be swayed

to not bother and vote with a literal monster in the WH? At this moment in history?

No.. people are thinking "do whatever you can" . To do that you have to be analytical. You have to look at the opposition and figure out the most optimum way to defeat him.

[SoonerPride]

31. The one person I hope who doesn't ignore the natIonal polls is trump

I hope it is killing him inside EVERY SINGLE DAY.

I want him being in despair, fits of anger, bile in his throat, AND heart palpitations.

I want him being driven absolutely NUTS by the constant drumbeat that THE COUNTRY HATES YOUR GUTS.

[redstatebluegirl]

33. But some people need them to feel good about voting and get excited (sarcasm).

If beating Trump isn't enough of a reason to get excited about voting for a Democrat you have issues.

[Aviation Pro]

34. The polls are snapshots

And over time represent trends. There is valuable data in all of them from the most broad to the most granular. Simplistically, the calculus would be dp/dt.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

35. Disagree a bit. Yes, swing state polls most important, but

Nationals give you an overall bird's eye view of the overall trend. Wouldn't you rather see his national approval at 30% vs. 60%?

Various polls, as a group, show different perspectives. Daily, swing, approvals, matchups, direction of country, etc.

[H2O Man]

36. Recommended.

[plimsoll]

39. Look Trump has already said it will be the most corrupt election in history.

He is just poisoning the well in case the election fraud doesn't work. Need to make sure the GOP cultists will revolt for any result they don't like.

Having said that, you can already see unprecedented levels of voter suppression being enacted. So in that respect it's not a prediction, it's a campaign promise.

[Tetrachloride]

40. People are not taking Wisconsin seriously.

Wisconsin has a red legislature and Supreme Court. The Election Commission is divided.

You know what happened in the Wisconsin primary. Lines. Late absentee ballots. Election workers afraid to be in a closed room. I was in one of those closed rooms. Even tho I was first in line, I was concerned of infection.

Wisconsin needs ATTENTION from people with MONEY and ORGANIZATION.

[roamer65]

43. There is no scenario where Dump wins MI.

But they should continue to waste ad dollars here.

[brooklynite]

44. They are not meaningless...

As an aggregate they indicate a positive trend. What they are NOT are indicators of State by State performers.

[Pepsidog]

45. Exactly!!

[iluvtennis]

46. Well said edhopper! nt

[live love laugh]

47. What is GOTV? nt

[ProfessorGAC]

50. Get Out The Vote (nt)

[live love laugh]

51. Thanks