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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsI find it hard to believe that any state wanting a single nuclear bomb could not get one quickly.
Getting the capability for mass producing modern nuclear warheads is a another thing, but just to obtain, say, one bomb equal to the one used in Hiroshima? That is not exactly very recent technology.
The underlying engineering problem was, like, totally solved by a mixed group of physicists from various specializations (i.e. non-experts), already in friggin 1945. It is way less recent than pocket calculators or playing "pong" on an oscilloscope.
Leaving all considerations of "optimized explosions" aside. Simply making it go "bang"? Given the proper materials it would seem like the same thing could easily be done today as an exercise by a group of talented phd students in a couple of months using literature downloaded from the internet.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Its probably harder than you think. It costs a great deal of money, which is either coming out of a despot's pockets or by shifting funding away from conventional arms. And it requires a great deal of brain-power... and many scientists and engineers have fled third world countries.
unblock
(52,229 posts)i think the challenge is acquiring the right materials and equipment in the sufficient quantities and doing it all without being obvious to the world, then actually executing the necessary steps to assemble everything properly.
a bit like cooking meth, i suppose. recipes don't appear to be hard to find, but getting enough of the right chemicals without getting caught and then not having your meth lab blow up appear to be the big challenges.
redgreenandblue
(2,088 posts)I like the "cooking meth" comparison
randome
(34,845 posts)It leads to no good use. Other than the bombs dropped on Japan during WWII, any further use of nuclear weapons is counter-productive.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)to allude to the title of a 60's comedy film about that very subject.
I believe there are several nations currently in that situation in the Mideast and Western Asia.
bhikkhu
(10,716 posts)I recall reading that the centrifuge system the US used when it was actively building weapons was the size of a small city - thousands of machines, thousands of workers, a huge infrastructure.
Iran has built centrifuges, but the size of the facility (which is huge) still has, in theory, some years to go before refining enough for a single bomb.
redgreenandblue
(2,088 posts)I mean nations were able to pull it off over sixty years ago. And Iran is not exactly a poor country.
bhikkhu
(10,716 posts)and the answer is no, largely because of the difficulty in refining enough of the necessary uranium isotope. Just designing a bomb is easy (I suppose), and there are probably numerous designs that would work that a competent fabricator could build, but you still need a centrifuge facility the size of a small city if you want to get it done quickly.
MadHound
(34,179 posts)A high school kid in Ohio built one for a school project back in the seventies.
The problem is in obtaining the nuclear material necessary to make the bomb go boom.
It is debatable whether or not Iran is building a bomb. It is currently enriching uranium to the 20% level, which is high by nuclear fuel standards(but not terribly uncommon), but would barely go pop if put into a bomb. Weapons grade uranium is usually enriched to 80% or more. Iran is using the centrifuge method to enrich its uranium, a slow, laborious process.
But hey, people have got to freak out about something, and this is as good an excuse as any to rattle the sabers at Iran. Let's hope cooler heads prevail and all that we see is saber rattling.
hobbit709
(41,694 posts)the biggest atomic "secret" was let out on Aug. 6, 1945-it worked.
The hard part after making one is how to get it to where you want to use it. It was all a B-29 could do to carry ONE at the time.
jsr
(7,712 posts)Even for an old gun-type design. The extreme mechanical precision and ultra-fast timing required, such as in an ICBM warhead, are beyond most countries.
sofa king
(10,857 posts)U-235 exists only in trace amounts among the much more common U-238; they are chemically identical and cannot be separated through any simple process.
Then one needs a perfect gun barrel, a perfectly machined uranium slug and uranium target, and heavy shielding to prevent the process and the device from being spotted by purpose-built detectors including satellites in space. Any minor flaw can be magnified by orders of magnitude and degrade performance. It cannot be easily tested until it is actually used (the Manhattan Project scientists decided to simply use the Little Boy on Japan and focused instead on testing the far more complex plutonium weapon in the Trinity test).
Once completed, a uranium gun device weighs nearly as much as a heavy artillery piece, which means that once one has it, it cannot be easily transported, much less delivered to an enemy country. The Iranians don't have a rocket that big, and won't for decades. I'm not sure the United States has a rocket that big, any longer.
The Iranians, if they wished to use such a device on the Israelis, would have to drag the weapon through or over at least two other hostile countries just to reach Israel, leaving the only practical option as hiding the device in a ship and sneaking it into an Israeli port in times of relative peace, which is probably also not easy.
A sneak attack with a single nuclear weapon would provoke an overwhelming response from other nuclear powers in addition to Israel, too. Nor would a single U-235 bomb do enough damage to materially prevent retaliation from the Israelis. It would guarantee the deaths of millions of Iranians, the total destruction of their modern infrastructure, the death and dissolution of their government, and the complete loss of control of the Persian Gulf and the vast majority of their oil reserves.
More sophisticated nuclear devices present similar technical and logistical problems for the Iranians, even if they are easier to deliver.
So, one can easily conclude, the Iranians don't want nuclear weapons for offensive purposes. They want a nuclear weapon so that they can plaster any invasion fleet or armored columns that would dare to try to steal their oil. Their best bet might be to place the weapons deep underground, over their own oil fields, so that if someone tries to take them, nobody can easily use the facilities or the oil itself.
That, I think, is the big lie behind Israel's position. Whatever crap they're spewing about Iran's capabilities, the real intent is not to protect Israel, but to keep Iran unprotected from a future attempt to steal their Persian Gulf oil fields. And that's also exactly why Iran wants The Bomb.
I personally don't think they can be stopped, just like the Pakistanis and North Koreans could not be stopped, and in both of those prior cases, once those nations got the bomb, their territorial and border problems (with India and South Korea, respectively) suddenly diminished considerably. So it might not be the worst thing in the world... for a while.
MineralMan
(146,308 posts)the mere threat of developing nuclear weapons capability stimulates a huge amount of destabilization, as we are seeing. Iran is using that to create fear and loathing. It's very effective, and affects the entire developed world.
sofa king
(10,857 posts)I won't deny a healthy dose of realpolitik in my post above. I would much rather see Iran chill the hell out and dismantle their capability, as the South Africans did.
But they won't.
redgreenandblue
(2,088 posts)"Then one needs a perfect gun barrel, a perfectly machined uranium slug and uranium target, and heavy shielding to prevent the process and the device from being spotted by purpose-built detectors including satellites in space. Any minor flaw can be magnified by orders of magnitude and degrade performance. It cannot be easily tested until it is actually used (the Manhattan Project scientists decided to simply use the Little Boy on Japan and focused instead on testing the far more complex plutonium weapon in the Trinity test). "
That sounds quite complicated, but I am not a nuclear engineer. I imagine many engineering problems require that amount of precision. I find it hard to believe that if a group of people were able to do it over sixty years ago, it is still beyond that capability of the government of a not exactly poor nation in the present.
sofa king
(10,857 posts)Says this non nuclear engineer who doesn't actually know what he's talking about!
I would imagine that if the material is at hand, it would be pretty easy to take an existing gun barrel and cobble together something that would work somewhat. But shaping U-235 can't be all that easy--I sure as hell wouldn't want to hammer it into shape!
The real problem is in producing a suitably high yield. If your nuclear weapon goes off with only the force of a truck-bomb, it's hardly worth the effort and expense (or going back to the ship-in-port scenario above, why bother making a nuclear weapon when one could just detonate a shipload of bat poop and get better results?).
So I would imagine that the scientists building it are deeply focused on making it perfect and getting as much yield as possible from the small amount of material they are able to acquire and/or produce. Proving they can do it well is probably just as important to them as actually having a bomb.
Let's cue the Stanley Kubrick and say that they have to do it right or their "deterrence lacks credibility."
AngryAmish
(25,704 posts)over. my. dead. body.
randome
(34,845 posts)MineralMan
(146,308 posts)Designing a nuclear device isn't so difficult but getting weapon-grade enriched fissionable material is very, very difficult. In fact, it's the most difficult part of the whole equation. Countries that have the capacity to product such material are very, very careful with it. More careful than you may realize.
The DIY bomb is not something that can be done by just anyone, and that's why it hasn't been done.
randome
(34,845 posts)Maybe you have something in the garage you don't want anyone else to know about? Hmm...
MineralMan
(146,308 posts)don't include things that blow up. It's hard enough to keep things from falling apart, actually.
cthulu2016
(10,960 posts)To say, "I find it hard to believe that any state wanting a single nuclear bomb could not get one quickly," requires that they get the proper materials.
The USA devoted a notable percentage of all domestic electricity production during WWII to refining enough fissionable material for a couple of bombs.
jimlup
(7,968 posts)What most lay people don't realize is that fissionable material (even the small amount required) is a tough one and requires a dedicated and monitored program. Yes if a state has about ~10kg of fissionable U235 then a Hiroshima bomb is essentially trivial. Fortunately for all of us it is very hard to get ~10kg of U235.
One might argue that a single bomb could be easily made with plutonium which is more easily produced from a standard reactor but that requires a technical sophistication in constructing the trigger and isolation the Pu that few states could master without detection.
My guess is that Iran could do it in about six months if they wanted to. The key being the last part of the sentence - "if they wanted to." No amount of bombing nor freaking out is going to change that at this point. The key is to keep them from "wanting to."
polly7
(20,582 posts)Lies and Double Standards Regarding Irans Nuclear Program
Excerpts:
"Yet, after 33 years, or twice as long as it took anyone else to make such bombs, Iran still has none. Why?":
The incontrovertible evidence is that Iran has a highly educated, technical, and capable population, military, and social infrastructure. It ranks 17th in the world in regards to Purchasing Power Parity (PPP; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Iran ). Iran has many universities and technical colleges with thousands of graduates per annum. It has the largest auto manufacturers of the Middle East. It has ship yards and steel mills. Vast indigenously staffed oil and gas wells and refineries and petrochemical plants for domestic production as well as export. It has orbital rocket and satellite design and manufacturing facilities. It builds its own dams and hydro electricity machinery and power stations and is the biggest exporter of electrical energy in the Middle East. It has an extensive medical research and development and pharmaceutical industry. It builds and maintains an extensive modern roads, railways and travel network. It has a variety of agricultural produce and processing facilities. It has its own aircraft manufacturing factories. Its own military manufacturing industry, including missiles, jet fighters, helicopters, destroyers and submarines. Furthermore, it has uranium mines and enrichment and processing plants, as well as nuclear research reactors for the past 45 years (since 1967). And that list is merely a synopsis. Iran has recently been ranked as third among industrial developing countries, after China and India .
So the possibility of ineptitude allowing a 33 year hiatus in making an atomic bomb is obviously unfounded. So what remains?
The only possibility is that Iran does NOT want atomic weapons. It is simply not interested in them, and as Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has declared; they are an immoral abomination and against Gods Law. Indeed, Iran is the only country to have declared atomic weapons absolutely illegal. Fatwas (binding religious decrees) have been issued against their manufacture or use (2003, 2005, 2011). Ayatollah Khamenei repeated his edict most recently at the Non Aligned Movement conference in Tehran.
http://www.zcommunications.org/lies-and-double-standards-regarding-iran-s-nuclear-program-by-sam-nejad
Iran's Khamenei Calls for 'Nuclear Free Middle East'
Published on Thursday, August 30, 2012 by Common Dreams
http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/08/30-4
Supreme leader of Iran says nuclear weapons are "great sin" as Israel's Netanyahu calls meeting of Non-Alligned Movement a "disgrace"
- Common Dreams staff
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Thursday reiterated the country's position that it has no desire for nuclear weapons, calling atomic weapons a "great sin" and renewing the call for a nuclear-free Middle East.
Iran's motto is "Nuclear energy for all and nuclear weapons for none," Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Thursday. (Photo credit: AP)
Speaking to leaders at the Non-Aligned Movement summit in Tehran, Khamenei said that Iran, as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), would continue to defend its right to develop a peaceful nuclear program.
"I stress that the Islamic Republic has never been after nuclear weapons and that it will never give up the right of its people to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, Khamenei said.
Iran considers the use of nuclear, chemical and similar weapons as a great and unforgivable sin," he continued. "We proposed the idea of Middle East free of nuclear weapons and we are committed to it.
randome
(34,845 posts)gorekerrydreamticket
(427 posts)officer...