Biden 48 Trump 36 general election poll from ....Rasmussen!!!

[Johnny2X2X]

Trump's favorite poll shows him getting trounced by Biden!

https://justthenews.com/sites/default/files/2020-06/2020-06-15%20JTN%20Poll%20CROSSTABS.pdf

[andym]

2. Good news, but better news would be to see Biden over 50% in every poll.

That is one barrier that Hillary rarely crossed, and it always was problematic, because it seemed her lead was based partly on anti-Trump feeling, which though significant did not carry her over the finish line. >50% represents a winning level of support. Polls where Biden is at 55% make me smile more (even if Trump is at 45%, though he should be under 30%).

[BSdetect]

3. These polls mean nothing unless we ensure a fair election.

Hilary was supposed to win FL remember.

Now we know what happened.

And they can do it again

[John Fante]

4. Florida was always going to be close. At no point did Hillary have it in the bag.

[gristy]

7. Not true

Polls indicating strong Biden support mean a lot. Even in an election that is not fair. They can steal only so many states and so many votes.

And on top of that, most polls had indicated Florida a tossup in 2016.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida#Predictions

General election
Predictions
The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Florida as of Election Day.

Los Angeles Times: Leans Clinton[15]
CNN: Tossup[16]
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Clinton[17]
NBC: Tossup[18]
Electoral-vote.com: Tossup[19]
RealClearPolitics: Tossup[20]
Fox News: Tossup[21]
ABC: Tossup[22]

[grantcart]

10. Moreover FL is usually decided by less than 2 %

No one in politics takes a FL poll seriously they are all in the MOE.

[EarlG]

12. The final RCP polling average for Florida, 10/27-11/06

was Trump +0.4. Basically a dead heat. He won by +1.2.

[aeromanKC]

34. Something IS rotten in FLorida!!

Desantis was down 6 points on election day. Something in Florida is wrong with the way their voting system operates.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. Last 12 polls on 538 average Biden +11

He's pushng a legit double digit lead.

Work twice as hard, we need a landslide for the preservation of our Democracy.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

28. never stop fighting til the final whistle blows

[SoonerPride]

32. This. We must act as though we are 10 pts down

[NewJeffCT]

33. and even after the whistle blows, need to make sure

that Trump leaves offices and Barr and others have no legal shenanigans up their sleeves

[John Fante]

6. This is an absolute bludgeoning.

[BamaRefugee]

8. Here's Clinton's polling lead over trump, June 2016...in the next few months things are going to

happen that will make pussy grabbing, emails, Comey, Wikileaks, and all the other skullduggery from 2016 look like nap time at a kindergarten, we need to put our heads down and work harder than ever!

[OhZone]

11. The difference doe -

is that Trump got ahead or very close in the averages a bunch of times.

[gristy]

13. wow, look at that

The difference could not be clearer. Thanks for posting those together!

[OhZone]

18. You're very welcome!

I wanted to compare it and I was a little amazed at the difference!

[honest.abe]

42. We are clearly in a much different situation now than in 2016.

Barring any crazy unprecedented event, Biden wins this.

Thanks for posting this. Very informative!

[ramen]

46. Good point. Here's hoping.. nt

[Quixote1818]

47. Holy shit! Trump's ceiling is about 45%. nt

[edbermac]

9. Polls don't mean shit.

Votes do!

[gristy]

14. I trust you are being hyperbolic here?

Yes?

[SiliconValley_Dem]

29. not true

[Roc2020]

15. This election will be called for Biden

by 9pm. The country celebrates for a day. And then it really sinks in just how much of a catastrophic trouble financially economically socially and business related the country is really in.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

16. Nationwide numbers are essentially meaningless

so long as we have the Electoral College.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

26. I so agree.

I wonder if the news media would acknowledge this more. If so, it might persuade more to rid us of the electoral college.

Also noted a stunner in the poll. Voters over 65 go for thump 49 over Biden 46. Given Covid-19, why?

[gristy]

27. Not true

15 minutes of work in excel on the 1992-2016 presidential election data posted at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election shows me that the correlation coefficient (i.e. r value) between popular vote result and EC result is 0.87. That is, they are highly correlated. And that national polls mean quite a bit. They are not meaningless.

[honest.abe]

39. If these numbers are close to accurate, it will translate into an EC blowout.

There is no way Biden loses if he wins the popular vote by 10+ percent.

[Locutusofborg]

17. For the record

This in NOT a Rasmussen Reports poll. Scott Rasmussen, the founder and namesake sold his public opinion polling firm several years ago and he, Scott Rasmussen went independent entrapreneur.
From Wikipedia: Scott William Rasmussen is an American public opinion pollster and political analyst. He produces the ScottRasmussen.com Daily Tracking Poll, which is an ongoing gauge of American voters' political sentiment. He is also editor-at-large for Ballotpedia, where he writes the Number of the Day Feature.
Rasmussen was the founder of Rasmussen Reports, where he served as pollster and president for 10 years until leaving the company in 2013. Earlier in his professional life, Rasmussen co-founded the sports network ESPN. After leaving Rasmussen Reports, Rasmussen founded Rasmussen Media Group, working as a political analyst, author, public speaker and columnist."

I know its confusing but this is a Scott Rasmussen poll not a Rasmussen Reports poll.

[Doreen]

19. I hate to shoot this down but how many more people he will get votes from does not matter.

What matters is that we have many many Democrats out there making sure there is no outside influence. We've been through this already with our candidate doing well, then illegal outsiders changed it into trumps favor.

I like the fact that votes for him look like they are going to be high....BUT.

[DSandra]

20. I can imagine Trump blowing his hair off in anger!

🤣

[helpisontheway]

21. Hope his head explodes with all the news today. @sshole deserves it! Nt

[Thekaspervote]

22. Oh my!! Dotard's hair must be on fire 🔥

[muntrv]

23. Good but Biden needs to be at least 50% or better. Hillary never crossed that threshold in 2016.

[Locutusofborg]

36. Don't forget that this is a right wing pollster

Very likely to have oversampled Republicans.
CNN's latest poll: Biden: 55%/Trump: 41%
NPR/PBS: Biden: 50%/Trump: 43%
Emerson College: Biden: 53%/Trump: 47%
Monmouth University: Biden: 52%/Trump: 41%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

[gibraltar72]

24. I have said for a long time 35% was going to trigger

Republicans to start having Come to Jesus moments. I think if they have any survival instincts some are gonna abandon ship.

[Azathoth]

25. Meaningless, Biden is still under 50

All this says is that Trump voters are either annoyed with him or are too embarrassed right now to admit they will vote for him. But they *will* still vote for him. All of them.

[honest.abe]

37. Only 5% of Republican voters are undecided.

Not nearly enough to close this gap.

[Azathoth]

40. Trump voters aren't all Republicans

Even some who are technically registered Republicans don't identify as Republicans.

But it makes sense that Trump-voting independents -- ie the slice of his supporters who aren't proud to be card-carrying cult members -- are the ones most likely to say they're "undecided" (they're not).

[honest.abe]

43. And not all Biden voters are Democrats.

I suspect they cancel out each other.

[DownriverDem]

44. No they're not,

but we need them to win. Something we all need to understand. Also I think the Biden voters will not cancel those non repub trump voters out.

[Dopers_Greed]

30. As long as Trump is still in the race, he can still win

Keeping fighting like we are down 5%

[Jarqui]

31. When Rasmussen has the GOP candidate down by 12,

they're probably telegraphing a problem that all fingers on the scale can't overcome in the polls.

When it comes to votes, I wouldn't get complacent with the GOP even if Biden was +30

The GOP are too crooked

[paleotn]

35. Saw a poll yesterday....

that showed Biden trailing Donnie Two Hands by only 2 percentage points in Arkansas. He's within the margin of error in freaking Arkansas!!! Texas I can write up as demographic shift, but no one is moving to Arkansas. No one. Thus showing the depth of displeasure in the orange jackass.

[Mr. Ected]

38. Biden will win the election fair and square

But Trump may win the presidency in ways fair and square players could never foresee.

We know Trump conspired with the rest of the GOP and Putin to win in 2016. All efforts to expose this were expunged. The law and order mouthbreathers are also the most egregious criminals of all time. And they've had 4 years to plan their next caper.

Sorry not to jump up and down at the good news in the polls, but something sinister is lurking in the shadows and we can't focus on the sunlight and think we're safe.

[Miigwech]

41. The only place for him to go is DOWN

[mwb970]

45. I guess the trump cultists will not be touting THIS Rasmussen poll!