General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums***Breaking: Dow Futures Plunge 700 points As Virus Fears Mount**
https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/2naSalit
(86,794 posts)uponit7771
(90,364 posts)pat_k
(9,313 posts). . . that the stock market remains so disconnected from the economy. (e.g., Russel 3000: 1440 June 16 2017, 1656 June 15 2018, 1697 June 14 2019, 1771 June 12 2020)
I could be way off, but it seems to me the drivers are greed and magical thinking. Too many have an irrational belief in some sort of midas touch that can't end because it must not end. They might be right. Taxpayers may continue to prop market investors up at the expense of themselves and vital services. And who can blame them? Their IRAs are in the mix.
At some point, the "chickens come home to roost."
The market may take another deep dive tomorrow, but I think greed will drive investors to jump back in -- like a bunch of lemmings.
"The market" doesn't represent economic realities "on the ground." But Trump keeps touting it as the be all end all measure of "success." Somehow, we need to inject reality. Is there an alternate, simple, easy to understand, measure that demonstrates the reality for a vast majority of Americans?
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... on a vaccine coming by Q4.
Fauci didn't help by saying its conceivable that a vaccine can come by Q4 but didn't mention the probability of it.
It's conceivable I can dunk on Lebron James more than 10 times ... lol not probable with a spur on my hip
SunSeeker
(51,715 posts)I am amazed some traders did not see that until now.
Demovictory9
(32,475 posts)duforsure
(11,885 posts)And he and the GOP by stalling getting direct checks to the people are now driving us into a depression. Businesses and bankruptcies will be soon be really making the news and market drop as the truth exposes trump and the GOP failures. Trump is stiffing the American people now while he demands he gets more stimulus money for himself. When Mnuchin gets exposed for corruption , and funneling money to himself and trump using others, they'll be making up new excuses after they get caught.
bullwinkle428
(20,630 posts)pwb
(11,291 posts)And they are staying put until people we trust lead us again. Seniors I know are hunkering down and spending only to help their children get through this Mess Trump put us in. American under Trump is No Country for Seniors
redstatebluegirl
(12,265 posts)We are buying NOTHING right now and won't be for a while.
Johnny2X2X
(19,114 posts)Not sure what it is, I don't think it's really based on the economy right now, there just might be no good place to put money right now. We're looking at the worst economy in generations, eventually the Stock Markets will reflect that.
empedocles
(15,751 posts)'Cramer-on-rampant-market-speculation-ive-never-seen-so-many-games-played-with-stocks'.
html&v=45cEsB1VFvc4N4iq9kBLCfqqhZXrWBPbnsyDWmpo1YYAAAFyt_Bhlg
ProfessorGAC
(65,191 posts)That's wishful, "look what Trump did" thinking.
But, it was nearly 19,000 when Obama left office.
Even ignoring the unwarranted tax cuts, the profitability of the companies big enough to be on those indices is more than acceptable to support a 35% rise over 3.5 years. 9.8% per year, or so. That's less than the last 81 months under Obama.
The virus caused a panic sell-off, and then recovered to where it should be.
It never should been nearly 30,000.
Right now, it's a little overvalued with bargain hunters going back in for long term holding and the overly optimistic think they'll make some short term gain. I'd say it's overvalued by 800-1200 points. 4%, give or taie
S&P and the Russell are proportionally similar.
Johnny2X2X
(19,114 posts)PE ratio has been out of wack and due for a correct for several years. Historic averages have it at 16 (DOW), it's currently close to 22, price vs earnings is all wrong an indicates we're at least 7000 points too high for the DOW. Expect earnings reports for the rest of the year to be absolutely catastrophic.
P/E ratio is the simplest formula to assign value. You've got companies way way over valued for the paltry earnings per share they bring in. It's not sustainable and you're going to see the PE ratio sky rocket the next 6 months to uncharted territories.
ProfessorGAC
(65,191 posts)Ignoring macroeconomic factors distorts the result. P/E is, in fact, a poor way to determine true economic performance.
P/E was falling over the past couple decades as debt load increased. And, many firms decreased dividends under the justification that rising stock prices compensated.
Dividends got cut by more than the delta in stock price change, so the ratio fell a bit.
There are a half dozen other factors that reduced earnings and they're interactive in the model.
The market is now 6-7% above economic equilibrium. That's 4% above the upper range of the 95% confidence interval of the equilibrium calculation.
It is not overvalued by 7,000 on DJIA.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... market I've ever seen
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)And the press will blame the market crash on electing Pres. Biden.
Just you watch.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)The big drop was between Wed evening and Thur morning last week. Something then?
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... meaning the feds are going to start picking winners and losers in the corporate bond market this is disgusting they're not even allowed to do this legally
tinrobot
(10,916 posts)This was inevitable. I'm just surprised it took so long.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)and was when you posted. What exactly are you saying?
tinrobot
(10,916 posts)That's what I'm saying.
Skraxx
(2,982 posts)uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... and told Wall Street they're buying individual bonds instead of buying individual stocks right when the market was about to roll over back down towards 10% from the peak which would have been Fair
Skraxx
(2,982 posts)For catastrophe, a real house of cards.