Nate Silver: National: Biden +7.6

[highplainsdem]

Three-tweet thread starting here, full text below:

Link to tweet

We'll have our national and state polling averages coming out soon.

Note that these are polling averages only; they're NOT yet blended with any sort of demographic priors.

Here's what the draft versions are currently showing....



National: Biden +7.6

CO: Biden +15.6
ME: Biden +12.4
VA: Biden +9.5
MI: Biden +8.2
NE-2: Biden +7.4
NH: Biden +6.6
WI: Biden +5.9
NV: Biden +5.7
MN: Biden +5.5
PA: Biden +3.7
AZ: Biden +3.6
FL: Biden +3.5
NC: Biden +2.0
OH: Biden +1.6
GA: TIE
TX: Trump +1.4
IA: Trump +1.6



The tipping-point state here would be PA, where there's been a real lack of high-quality polling for the past couple months. I doubt that Biden is actually ahead by 8 in MI and 6 in WI but only 3-4 in PA. But, that's what the polls show if you don't blend them with priors.

Additional comment from Nate on these poll results:

Link to tweet

I guess one thing that really stands out here is that it doesn't take that much to go from a massive Biden Electoral College landslide (if he wins everywhere on the list below, that's 413 EV) to a narrow Biden loss (he's only ahead 3.7 points in the tipping-point state).

[ananda]

1. Looks good to me!

I hope he has coattails.

I want the Senate too!

[madville]

13. Clinton had a similar lead over Trump in June of 2016

+7.1% to be exact June 13th 2016. This should be treated as a tie at best.

[Mz Pip]

2. NE by 7.4

That’s amazing.

[highplainsdem]

4. That's NE-2, not the entire state. Omaha.

[Mz Pip]

5. Thanks.

I thought it was too good to be true. Still every EV counts!

[beachbumbob]

3. I am expecting better out of Ohio and Pennsylvania in coming months and

see more lead for Biden in Az and Florida as COVID-19 reignites

all this is just horrible for trump and he can only make it worse as he keeps feeding his circle of support and makes more democratic voters in the process

[idziak4ever1234]

7. Ohio always disappoints.

[Doodley]

6. Too close for comfort, given that Trump/Putin will cheat.

[Yavin4]

8. These polls are not that highly predictive this far out from the general election.

We will probably see a major tightening 2 or 3 weeks from the election. Look for Biden's lead to narrow, or even disappear, in some polls.

[SoonerPride]

9. We need to work as if we are 10 pts down

[helpisontheway]

10. Lots of good news but why is PA even close? 🤦🏽‍♀️Nt

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. The lack of decent recent polling there

Here's their list: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/

one 'C-' poll for May 29-31 that had Trump 4 point ahead; polls before that mostly put Biden ahead - the latest 'B'-rated polls were in April, with Biden with a 5 or 7 point lead. That one late May poll has probably skewed it.

[FM123]

11. If we can take Texas (38 electoral votes) and Florida (29 electoral votes) away from trump

that would be a fatal blow. Those 67 electoral votes would be his toe tag.

[madville]

14. Clinton was +7.1 on June 13th 2016

Polling doesn't mean much this far out.