General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsA sobering interview with a top epidemiologist
And why we should worry if the virus looks like its disappearing now. A bit of a long read, but well worth it.
https://www.bluezones.com/2020/06/covid-19-straight-answers-from-top-epidemiologist-who-predicted-the-pandemic/?fbclid=IwAR0cEc_cNSPhxXTnW_93btbFPxVTEEXx6eQxMZmwWkmBbcEQVMNTv0YxCZc
pdxflyboy
(678 posts)I think that people are way too optimistic about this epidemic winding down. We shouldn't be. Thank you for posting this.
soothsayer
(38,601 posts)Thanks.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,895 posts)And I just put his book, Deadliest Enemy:Our war against killer germs on hold at my local library. They're re-opened to do curbside delivery of books, which is wonderful.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,857 posts)Found this part especially interesting:
First of all, the Sweden model no longer exists. It was a myth to begin with. And it now is even being heavily criticized within Sweden to the point where theres actually a criminal investigation going on about what did or didnt happen in their long-term care. Sweden has one of the highest death rates in the world in terms of number of people that have died per population. They have not advanced any meaningful way towards a herd immunity level and are not much higher than the United States is right now. And they recognize in retrospect that maybe they didnt accomplish all that they thought they were going to.
roamer65
(36,747 posts)Wow...hes 800,000 to 1,600,000.
TreadSoftly
(219 posts)My summary: birds make flus, then swine catch the flus & combine with human bits of replication matter, and voila! Part of the section on why we call them all "swine flu".
Put the farmers in bubble suits & we can prevent the next pandemic.
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)dweller
(23,661 posts)not the toxic needy amin we are cursed with ..
✌🏼
Muriel
(16 posts)People read and hear (and see) about folks carrying on as though this whole nightmare is behind us - streets full of protesters, beaches full of beach goers, stores full of shoppers. How can all these people be wrong? How come I see people out and about without masks?
Maybe we should call it "Herd Mentality." The numbers will bear out the truth. Until then, I will continue to be careful.
maxsolomon
(33,400 posts)99% of those in the crowd were masked.
mn9driver
(4,428 posts)I doubt there is any single person in the world who is more qualified to talk about this stuff. The main takeaway I got from this is that the virus is by no means done with us. Be emotionally and physically prepared for what will sooner or later happen. Because it will.
crickets
(25,983 posts)mackdaddy
(1,528 posts)Here are the highlights of our conversation. But if you really want to understand this disease, read the whole interview. This disease may be the biggest event of our lifetimes.
- 3 months ago, COVID-19 was not even in the top 75 causes of death in this country. Much of the last month, it was the #1 cause of death in this country. This is more remarkable than the 1918 Flu pandemic.
- There is no scientific indication Covid-19 will disappear of its own accord.
- If youre under age 55, obesity is the #1 risk factor. So, eating the right diet, getting physical activity, and managing stress are some of the most important things you can do to protect yourself from the disease.
- One of the best things we can do for our aging parents is to get them out into the fresh air, while maintaining physical (not social) distancing.
- Wearing a cloth mask does not protect you much if youre in close contact with someone who is COVID-19 contagious. It may give you 10 minutes, instead of five, to avoid contracting the disease.
- We can expect COVID-19 to infect 60% 70% of Americans. Thats around 200 million Americans.
- We can expect between 800,000 and 1.6 million Americans to die in the next 18 months if we dont have a successful vaccine.
- There is no guarantee of an effective vaccination and even if we find one, it may only give short term protection.
- Speeding a vaccination into production carries its own risks.
- The darkest days are still ahead of us. We need moral leadership, the command leadership that doesnt minimize whats before us but allows everyone to see that were going to get through it.