Am I the only one who thinks the jobs numbers are complete fiction?

[onecaliberal]

I know people went back to work but it’s difficult for me to believe.

[Wounded Bear]

1. Hard to believe anything this admin puts out...

so I don't blame you for having a healthy skepticism.

I share it.

[tazkcmo]

5. Me too. nt

[Proud liberal 80]

3. No

[Newest Reality]

4. Skeptical Too...

It doesn't add up. Ministry of Truth.

[unblock]

6. not complete fiction, but unemployment rates are sometimes confusing

for example, if a sole-earner lost their job in march, then last month the stay-at-home spouse scrambled to get a job, any job to make ends meet, then the unemployment rate improved in april because there in march there was 1 out of 1 unemployed, but now there are only 1 out of 2 unemployed.

worse, if the original sole earner stops looking because they know there aren't any suitable jobs, then they are considered to have dropped out of the labor force, so at that point it's 0 out of 1 unemployed, which looks great on paper, but the reality is terrible, of course.

the latest data from bls shows a high number of such "discouraged workers".

there's also an classification error that they admit would have made the headline number 3% higher had they corrected it.

[Pantagruel]

7. I think they are an honest effort

but what they are measuring is incredibly tricky and unprecedented.The next few months will show wild swings, probably in both directions.I think recession is unavoidable but remember the stock market is not the economy.

[onecaliberal]

11. The stock market is rigged.

They’re pumping billions to keep it propped up and it matters almost nothing to people.

[stillcool]

8. creative accounting..

if there is one thing the GOP knows how to do is make numbers appear and disappear.

[sop]

9. Trumpian Syllogism: Trump always projects. Trump accused Obama of putting out fake numbers.

Trump is putting out fake numbers.

[SoonerPride]

10. I think they are unmitigated lies.

They are divorced from reality. Entirely.

[dawg]

12. Didn't we lose like ... 40 million(*) jobs, give or take?

Is it really all that surprising that we got 2.5(*) million of them back once states started re-opening.

We're still in a terrible, terrible hole. Too bad none of the powers that be seem to realize it.



(*) - I can't be bothered to look up the actual numbers. These will do.

[duforsure]

13. No!

I don't believe anything trump claims, especially numbers.

[Pantagruel]

15. Canada confirms the direction of the numbers

but it doesn't mean much with a 13% unemployment rate:


Canada unexpectedly adds 290,000 jobs on gradual reopening


Source: Financial Post

Canada unexpectedly adds 290,000 jobs on gradual reopening
Still, the unemployment rate ticked up to 13.7% in May, a postwar record as people returned to the labour force

Bloomberg News
Shelly Hagan
June 5, 2020
10:07 AM EDT

Canada’s labour market unexpectedly strengthened after two-straight months of record losses as the country gradually reopens from COVID-19 related restrictions.

Employment rose by 289,600 in May, Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa, surprising economists who had been anticipating more losses last month. The gains were across most industries and provinces, though largely driven by higher employment in Quebec, the province hardest hit by the pandemic.

The numbers echo recent high-frequency data, which had signalled a recovery is underway, with job postings increasing and more Canadians reporting an increase in work at the end of May. They will be a relief to policy makers who had been scrambling to inject hundreds of billions in cash into the economy to keep it afloat. Still, just under 5 million remain without work or substantially reduced hours with the jobless rate at postwar records.

[Alacritous Crier]

14. Rough times ahead no matter what...

I think this admin is going to try everything they can to sugarcoat the numbers between now and Nov. but reality will hit hard eventually. I'm sure Biden's mess will be worse than the mess Obama had to deal with.

[shockey80]

16. Life itself has become fiction.

[Recursion]

17. You need to factor in the reporting delay -- this is the PPP loans

A lot of businesses laid off a lot of people, took the PPP loans, and "hired" them back.

[kimbutgar]

18. No the first thought I had when I saw these numbers was bull shite.

You are not alone.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

19. Oddly enough, people are always claiming that the jobs numbers

are fiction.

But while you're not the only one who thinks that way, to believe they are complete fiction is to miss what is actually there. For one thing, the numbers are always something of an estimate, depending on what information is conveyed in a timely manner. So they do have value, they are worth paying attention to.

And keep in mind that the number most reported is first time jobless claims.

[a kennedy]

20. Well if all those folks are working, won't be for long when the virus gets em.

I don’t understand why no one isn’t talking ABOUT THE RISING NUMBERS OF PEOPLE GETTING IT.

[tritsofme]

21. I have confidence in the career professionals who staff the BLS.

However, even in the best of conditions initial estimates can be off considerably, this is an incredibly difficult environment for them to do their work.

[ProfessorGAC]

22. Repeating Myself, But...

...it's still over 13% UE.
This report only says is that situation is still bad. This isn't 10 going to 3.
It's 20 going to 13.
Millions of households aren't dancing just yet.

[Cicada]

23. ADP publishes its private data, I bet it matches

Canada reports similar results

Businesses are reopening