UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPS!: 13.3%

[Dennis Donovan]

Link to tweet

Jake Sherman ✔@JakeSherman

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPS!: 13.3%

8:31 AM - Jun 5, 2020

Next week's headline: "COVID hospitalizations spike in states that re-opened too early"

[empedocles]

1. Very likely, in 3-4 weeks

[underpants]

2. Very good news

[OnlinePoker]

3. And Twittler makes a self-congratulatory tweet about it

Link to tweet

[Goodheart]

11. Kidding but true?

Which?

[maxrandb]

4. Isn't this kind of like burning down your house, building a shed

and proclaiming shed construction is up?

[obamanut2012]

6. yes

[yellowcanine]

7. Excellent metaphor. All these numbers are relatively meaningless

anyway. What is meaningful is number of new infections and deaths. You won't hear a peep out of Trump about that.

[Fullduplexxx]

5. Of course that's a fake number the real number is actually higher

[LenaBaby61]

8. Of course that's a fake number the real number is actually higher.

Agreed.

I don't believe anything coming from this lying, Crooked-ass, putin-loving White House.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. Fortunately, these numbers don't come from the WH.

.

[LenaBaby61]

16. Sorry, but I still ...

Don't believe much of anything they nor almost anyone around them says. This is the same White House which is telling the CDC what to say and do. This is the same White House which is phasing out Fauci. This is the same White House which won't allow our own journalists to cover fatso when they speak to one another. The current occupier of the White House tells others to ingest bleach/lysol as a cure for Caronavirus. And I could go on and on. So for me, I state again, I don't believe much of if anything coming from this White House and certainly nothing coming from almost 20,000 time lying, pathological liar tRump. You see we don't know anything about what crooked Barr's doing in putting the unnaned 'little green men' out there unmarked who are said to be harassing protesters.

Fauci says his contact with Trump has 'dramatically decreased'
Comments likely to raise fears he is being squeezed out of White House as coronavirus continues to ravage US.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/01/dr-fauci-donald-trump-coronavirus-taskforce

[unitedwethrive]

17. In this era, blindly believing that the trump manipulation machine

does not extend to places previously untouched by politics would be naive.

They have actively sought to gut the structure of most government agencies, Including many that were thought apolitical.

[Drunken Irishman]

18. And blindly believing every conspiracy opens us up to right-wing ones.

We can't get upset when the right dabbles in conspiracy and then do it too. Trump was notorious for saying Obama cooked the jobs reports, a baseless attack I called out then and I'll call out now.

This isn't the WH. These reports are pushed by the same people who did them during the Obama WH. If Trump was cooking the books, so to speak, there would be a smoking gun and someone would have published a report by now because of how many Democrats that likely still work in the BLS.

[unitedwethrive]

19. This is exactly why they put out conspiracy theories, so we dig ourselves into a hole

saying how ridiculous they are. Then we have no foot to stand on when the tables are turned...just how they got away with stealing the last election. I am not saying that there definitely is manipulation of the numbers, I am saying that we need to be open to that possibility. We need to be open to every possibility. and we need to be smart. It is certainly possible that this administration, which is entirely corrupt, knows how important these numbers are and has found away to skew them to their advantage.

Remember that many, many Democrats quit government jobs when Trump came into office. In addition, this administration has changed leadership at almost every agency. Who would have ever thought the CDC would become a political arm of the White House?

As far as the “no leaker” defense, the vast majority of government workers only deal with a very small fraction of information. There’s only a select few people who receive input from all the different factions, and create the report based on the totality of the data. Most employees of the agency may not even know if the published data are accurate.

[Drunken Irishman]

20. The BLS is independent of the WH.

It's filled with career officials who've been doing this for multiple presidents. The only thing Trump can likely control is the leaking of the numbers, which generally have a moratorium on them until a specific time every first Friday of the month. But it's not like the WH gets to choose those numbers.

[unitedwethrive]

21. Keep telling yourself that.

[Drunken Irishman]

22. It's a fact.

[LenaBaby61]

23. Gee, I wonder how this 'misclaffication' managed to just uh 'happen.' 🤔

A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is.

June 6, 2020 at 7:57 a.m. PDT
When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.

The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May. But that would still be an improvement from an unemployment rate of about 19.7 percent for April, applying the same standards.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that puts out the monthly jobs reports, said it was working to fix the problem.

“BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue,” said a note at the bottom of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report.

The next big problem for the economy: Businesses can’t pay their rent

Some took this as a sign that President Trump or one of his staffers may have tinkered with the data to make it look better, especially since most forecasters predicted the unemployment rate would be close to 20 percent in May, up from 14.7 percent in April. But economists and former BLS leaders from across the political spectrum strongly dismissed that idea.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/05/may-2020-jobs-report-misclassification-error/#comments-wrapper

Thing is that this current lying-ass administration twists the arms of SO many people to make them play on the same crooked ass page that they play on.

I'll wait until a Democratic administration takes the helm to start 'believing' stastics like these.

This administration lies about so MANY things, that you don't know when to believe them. I rarely if EVER do. Even people who are honest leave and then tell how they had their arms twisted to fit the narrative of a tRumputin administration. You very rarely see Fauci now, because tRumpcaronavirus has moved on from it, and he doesn't CARE how many people DIE from his signature disease: tRumpcaronavirus. I also wouldn't doubt if the numbers were FAR higher than the 107,000 or so that have been reported the last two or so days.

I remember when my late Mother told me that several of her cousins living in the town of Tuskegee, Alabama was telling everybody who's listen that they were 'experimenting' on their relatives. People not from that town didn't believe those 'rumors' that those lying n*****s were spreading.

Turns out that the Tuskegee Experiment wasn't a LIE or HOAX or just n-words making shit up:

Tuskegee syphilis experiment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuskegee_syphilis_experiment

[Drunken Irishman]

9. It's not a fake number.

Only conspiracy theorists like Trump believe the President makes these numbers up. He was notorious about saying Obama made up these numbers to win reelection
Don't turn into a nutter like him. Clearly it's not healthy.

[DeminPennswoods]

14. Thanks

The drop is unemployment is/was not unexpected because unemployment was a result of people not being allowed to work, as opposed to people not having a job. Once everything is open and settles down, then we will see how many jobs were truly lost.

[judeling]

15. Agreed

However the BLS continues to say that Covid-19 effects have the Real number probably at 16%. They are just not going to adjust the numbers to keep series data consistent over time.

[TeamPooka]

24. Um, they are off by 3 points and said so in the report. The media ignored it

A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is. Here’s what happened.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/05/may-2020-jobs-report-misclassification-error/

When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.

The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May. But that would still be an improvement from an unemployment rate of about 19.7 percent for April, applying the same standards.

[judeling]

12. A great number, but ...

There are some interesting things in it. First this by industry group looks like a15% bump off the bottom.
That is actually to be expected.
First PPP had an effect that will be hard to measure for example 1M of the gain was in Hospitality did your local diner just put some back on payroll. When dentists have a 300k bump that is mostly a one time thing.
Also there was a lot of expansion of the understanding of essential workers as workers were brought back to support the parts of the economy we needed. These down stream workers supporting say the manufacturing of PPE inputs and stocking stores. We are seeing a lot of inventory build.

The biggest effect of this report is going to be making further maintenance and stimulus actions much harder. As the economy adjusts to the new realities we may see a lot of shifting. This will really likely to hit white collar jobs that were held in anticipation of a rebound.
What we see in this data is the bottom was hit in April and now we will start the long way back.

Good news can feed on itself, but the actual underlying dynamics will come into play.

[kentuck]

13. BIDEN 2020

Link to tweet