Digging back on the Primary votes - Trump has a problem

[sunonmars]

I have looked back on the recent primaries and Trump has one small problem.....GOP voters.

In many he ran unopposed but in Primaries where he had an opponent, he has lost quite a bit in traditional red or purple states,
What I'm saying about this is, the further the primaries have went on, the more GOP voters pulled away from Trump, in the early states, Feb, March, he didn't lose that many GOP votes 1-3%, the Primaries in May, June, he starting losing 5-12% of GOP voters, which is quite interesting and significant and will impact house and senate votes.

If these voters can't bring themselves to vote for him in Nov or even go Dem then that is a big chunk of change he will drop off, losing 5-10% of your base is more than enough for some states to tip over or come very close. It would most certainly mean those very close states like PA, Michigan will fall back to Dem.

Its all anecdotal but if there is a drop of of GOP voters to that degree and a huge swing from independents as currently shown, Trump is in big shit in Nov.


Indiana - 8.5% of GOP voters voted for Weld.
Montana - 6.3% of GOP voters voted for NO preference (In a small state that can make a lot of difference.)
PA - 6% of GOP voters voted for Weld.
New Mexico - 9% of GOP voters went uncommitted
Nebraska - 9% of GOP voters went for Weld
Wisconsin - 2% went for uninstructed (the lowest so far April and beyond, which would say its very close there)
Florida - 6.5% of GOP voters went for anybody but Trump
Michigan - 6.5 of GOP went anything but Trump
NC - 6.5 of GOP went anything but Trump

In Blue states, the GOP vote drop off was even bigger -.

Maryland - 12% of GOP voters voted for Weld.

It will be interesting to see if this continues or the disaffected vote grows in these last few primaries........

[Squinch]

1. Interesting. I haven't seen anyone else commenting on this, and it's significant.

Thanks!

[beachbumbob]

2. problem is, primary elections and pandemics don' t generate useful data

[brooklynite]

3. In 2008, Pat Buchanan voters supported George Bush in November...

...they used the Primary as a protest vote, but never intended to walk away.

[Coleman]

4. At the convention, come voting time

Somebody will yield to somebody else who will move for the selection of ass wipe by acclimation. The convention will go crazy, and by voice vote, the pig will be selected.

[Mike 03]

5. Thanks for this! Interesting research, and I also haven't heard

any commentary on this elsewhere. Maybe the relentless criticism from Republican offshoots like the Lincoln Project is having an effect on some.

Just my opinion: Trump isn't behaving like someone who is going to run an ordinary campaign to win an election; he seems to think he can hold onto his office by legal tricks, force and baseless accusations of a rigged election.

[Hortensis]

6. Sunonmars, are "GOP voters" registered Republicans or

do those figures include the so-called right-leaning indies who are embarrassed to identify but nevertheless have been voting Republican?

Very interesting in either case.

[NewJeffCT]

7. Recent poll had him at 47% with non college educated whites

if that holds, he will lose in a landslide. In 2016, Trump got 71% of white men w/o college degrees and 61% of white women w/o college degrees.