The Daily Dread - Tracking the spread, 6/4/20

[calimary]

My apologies for the two days' absence. There just weren't any stats to report, as the George Floyd story overtook everything. (Which it should have, understandably.)

Last night was the first data graphic I saw in two days.

At 7:36pm, last night - only domestic data available. Source: NBC News.
Confirmed cases US - 1,852,892
Deaths US - 107,852

[calimary]

1. Just for comparison's sake... here's what the last tracking showed (6/1/20, Monday evening)

At 6:01pm Monday evening, June first.
Confirmed cases US - 1,804,977
Deaths US - 105,168

At 7:36pm, last night - only domestic data available. Source: NBC News.
Confirmed cases US - 1,852,892
Deaths US - 107,852

Look at the difference. An increase, but this is now three days later. The increase is there, but it's slowing. Earlier in the pandemic, the difference here would be reflected in an hour or less.

Then again, it's slowing, FOR NOW. The fear in the past few days arises out of all those huge crowds, that close contact and no social distancing, and not everybody's wearing a mask, or being meticulous about what they touch. The strong and repeated recommendations for caution to prevent the spread of the virus seem to be a thing of the past. All but forgotten. Two weeks from now will tell the tale - whether hospitalizations start rising noticeably and the number of cases - and of deaths - both start spiking. Governor Andrew Cuomo has often noted "you tell me how much close contact there is today, and I'll tell you how many more cases there are, x-number of days from now."

That story - either way - will come in a week or two, considering how many days of protests and gatherings and demonstrations and crowds packed tightly together. With cheering, crying, singing, hugging, all the things we've spent some three months not doing. And in some cases, wind - helicopter-generated and horseback driven - that can spread micro droplets all over the place. Those droplets are lighter than air, and float for much longer than what you'd immediately think of as a "droplet" that comes out of a faucet and falls straight down. Droplets don't do that. They're lighter than air. And they keep moving until gravity finally prevails.

[calimary]

2. Update -

At 7:36pm, last night (Wednesday, June 3) - only domestic data available. Source: NBC News.
Confirmed cases US - 1,852,892
Deaths US - 107,852

At 8:44pm tonight (Thursday, June 4)
Confirmed cases US - 1,876,528
Deaths US - 108,676

Details are few and far between, since the lead changed (from COVID-19 to George Floyd's murder). But cases and deaths are still increasing. More than 20-thousand new cases in 24 hours. George Floyd was killed on Memorial Day. May 25th. That was a week ago Monday. This is now almost Friday, June 5th. I'm writing this at 11:56pm, Pacific time. Friday, June 5th is Day 12 since Floyd's death. You know what they say about that key two-week interval... two weeks from the day of presumed exposure...

I heard something today from someone worrying about cases likely going up by 20-thousand per day if we have a rebound. Take a look at the difference between the confirmed cases last night and the confirmed cases by this evening.