Talk me out of it...financial pro believes that DT will get reelected

[TreadSoftly]

Investment guy locally told me "unless DT does something stupid" by which he meant something like reopening causing horrible COVID numbers (?), DT will win reelection. Must be Republican good-times and so finance folks believe another four terrific <cough, gag> years are in store.

Help me with perspective: am I in an echo chamber -- is this like my youth where everyone I knew voted for McGovern? Thoughts?

[roamer65]

1. He will only steal it via the Electoral College.

That will be the end of the republic if it is allowed to happen again.

[regnaD kciN]

2. Biden has a substantial lead in every reputable poll...

And, in fact, has held such a lead since middle-late last year, when the economy was going great guns and COVID-19 was yet unknown.

And the fact that he can qualify it by saying unless Trump does “something stupid” that he’s already been doing for over a month makes me think he only sees the world through gold- (or maybe green-)colored lenses.

[Ex Lurker]

3. If the virus rebounda and the economy struggles

There's no way he pulls it off. If the virus fades and the economy roars back, he wins. If somethig in between, it will be a tossup..

[Eyeball_Kid]

18. The virus WILL rebound.

Anticipate 200k deaths by September, just before the second wave. The economist might know his stuff, but he's not an epidemiologist.
There is no indication that warmer weather will slow down this virus. There is no cure. It will do what it will do. Mitigation measures will be partially successful, but the infections won't stop.

Trumpy-boy will try to keep the economy rolling, but the infections and deaths will take their toll. Consumers will stop consuming because there is no cure for the virus and people will continue to die. The economy relies on consumption. It's driven by the purchase of goods and services. High unemployment means that people have no money to spend, and for those who do have disposable incomes, the virus will infect people who circulate. So the act of spending is dangerous.

The US and most of the world has not seen this kind of thing in over a hundred years. We don't want to alter our lives to the extent that we will stabilize around the live virus and we don't know how to establish new norms. Our normal activity, for decades long, must cease until a vaccine is developed and administered to vast numbers of people. That will take YEARS.

Biden can win merely by telling the truth. People want to hear the truth. They are done with lies and con games, and their disgust will grow. Sure, Trump will cheat and he'll lie, but he's no longer an unknown quantity. Cheating and lying will no longer be a surprise. We EXPECT Trump to try to win the election by cheating. Everyone's antennae are up. The press will be hypersensitive to voter/election fraud. Trump won't be able to pull of a fraudulent election because everyone will know about it in advance.

[Ms. Toad]

4. Take it seriously -

if we don't, it will be a repeat of 2016 when everyone treated him as a joke.

We must assume he will win unless we pull out all the stops to elect Biden.

[Budi]

5. He'll be 're-elected' the same way he was 'elected' in 2016.

He's a fking mobster.

I'm so damned sick of him.

[zipplewrath]

6. Trump's race to lose

The prevailing wisdom is that it is Trump's race to lose. And he is making all the right moves to do exactly that. Joe needs stay in his basement.

[BootinUp]

7. The magnitude of his loss will be epic. nt

[global1]

8. The Financial Guys Love Trump....

My investment guy said the same thing. The Wall Streeters love this guys ass. Why? Because he's making them money.

DT does something stupid most every day. They don't care what he does - as long as he keeps them in the chips.

That's what it's all about with these financial pros.

[ProfessorGAC]

20. Which Is Odd

Most 401k accounts are down 12% or more since beginning of year.
The major indices are down 15%.
The last 5 years of Obama, the majors increased by 12+% annually.
The DJIA is up 32% since election day 2016. That's 32% over 43 months, or around 8%.
Short memories, I guess.

[LeftInTX]

9. I read something in politico or something

They say the economy is doing bad right now, but will probably will improve by the fall and will make Trump look good.

[RockRaven]

10. By election day even the official (never mind actual) death toll will be 1/4 to 1/2 million

And a shit-ton of people will have been evicted or otherwise lost their homes.

The masses don't give a fuck what the DJIA is when they're in extremis. Improving/good economic indices are only good for an incumbent amongst people who are, at most, dissatisfied.

Those truly in distress, especially those newly in distress, are not receptive to the "yeah I've already been in power for 4 years, but, c'mon, things are getting better" arguments.

I don't doubt that Wall Street shitbirds will come back around to Trump by election day, but the question is will all those campaign donations actually make people who've had their lives totally destroyed vote to re-elect Trump. Maybe. I doubt it.

[Celerity]

11. I never publish maps that show a Rump win, but these would be his most likely paths

269-269 tie equals a win for Rump, as the Rethugs will hold at least 26 (the bare minimum needed) House delegations, due to serious gerrymandering in the 2 main states (elsewhere too, but I am only dealing with these 2 for this) we can pull back to a majority of the House seats (FL and WI)

I am sure I missed a few possibilities, and I only list the closest scenarios

the first map is my ACTUAL best guess (we win) as of right now, just for positive thoughts

IA, NC, GA, OH, and ME-2 can or partially all flip Blue as well




-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[JmAln]

22. If there is a 269-269 tie in the EC,

Then the state delegation from Wyoming, with one Rep in Congress, would get one vote in breaking the tie. And California, with 53 Reps, would also get only one vote.

Talk about a rigged system!

[Celerity]

24. Indeed. If that nightmare occurs, there is going to be massive

violence I fear. The only reason the Rethugs have 26 delegations is via illegal gerrymandering, systemic voter suppression via purging, caging, polling place closures, intimidation, etc., and if course election fraud.

If, through some miracle we somehow got to 26 delegations, and it was 269-269, Rump will not submit. He probably will not anyway, but from every conceivable angle, 269-269 is a nightmare. It could easily spill over into all sorts of hellish outcomes, just pure crazy, mad shit.

Thank fuck it is unlikely as hell to end up 269-269.

[TreadSoftly]

28. Thanks for the charts

This is all too far from comfortable. Have to GOTV

[Cicada]

12. Betting markets are good predictors, they have it a toss up

Trump is even a slight favorite. The incumbent can control the news.

Polls tilt to Biden, betting markets tilt pro trump. I have it a tossup.

But the youngest 40% of those eligible to vote favor Dems over Repubs two to one, an unprecedented generational tilt. So soon, maybe 10 years, the Republican Party will cease to be a national party.

[JI7]

13. He can only win by cheating

[betsuni]

14. He barely won last time. It will not happen again.

[JI7]

15. So the Covid numbers right now are not Horrible ?

[TreadSoftly]

16. That's why I had the question mark on that phrase...

Hi, JI7. When he said the "if" part, I thought he was going to say "DT keels over because DT is very ill" but instead he mentioned COVID. I believe he was thinking about difficulties with reopen the country during Wave 2 or Wave 3 of COVID causing DT a political failure at the polls. Thanks for raising the question.

[struggle4progress]

17. Sartre famously said we choose our own history: that means, of course, that our future past

cannot be anything except the product of all the things we choose to do in our ever-changing present

And refusing to choose merely leaves us foundering on whatever sand-spit the floods cast us

[VOX]

19. Swing states, swing states, swing states...

Are where the 2020 election (provided that there is a free and fair election, which is what this insane cabal does NOT want) will be decided. Most other states are “locked in,” so the win most likely goes to the candidate who performs best in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin (and possibly Arizona).

Trump has been visiting swing state businesses and facilities during the COVID-19 shutdown. Biden must court them, too— and hard.

[pecosbob]

21. Typically in the past what has been good for Wall Street has been good for the overall economy

I really don't think that's the case now and what we have is a serious disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. Until consumers are consuming things the economy will not recover.

[chowder66]

23. Does 100k deaths and climbing not fit your friends criteria?

[TreadSoftly]

25. Apparently not. baked-in cost, I suppose

We were both wearing masks (he put his on when he saw mine) but by voice I'm sure he was serious that DT had to make a bigger mistake (!) to lose the election.

[chowder66]

27. Wow.

[Initech]

26. I'm really scared that what happened in the UK could easily happen here.

Too many counties in the UK went conservative because they didn't have the votes, and that's what got Boris Johnson an overwhelming conservative majority. It could easily happen here, and don't think they aren't planning for it.