What do you think the real number of Covid-19 deaths in the US really is?

[rurallib]

As we pass the 100,000 dead mark officially?

I am just curious. I believe it is 125,000 to 150,000.

20 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	I think 100,000 is close to correct
	1 (5%)
	I think it is at least twice the 100,000
	1 (5%)
	I think it is between 150,000 and 200,000
	9 (45%)
	I think it is really @ 125,000
	7 (35%)
	I think it is between 100,000 to 125,000
	0 (0%)
	It is way lower than the 100,000 - say @ 75,000
	0 (0%)
	Way less than 50,000
	0 (0%)
	Does it make a difference? These people shouldn't have died
	2 (10%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
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[zipplewrath]

1. By the end of the year

I'm looking at 900,000. Just an extrapolation but I don't think I'll be far off.

[rurallib]

2. provided we get an honest accounting

I agree with you

[Massacure]

3. There was some analysis in the media about deaths a couple of weeks back

I cannot provide exact details, but someone did analysis regarding the number of deaths this year as opposed to March/April of a "normal" year and concluded something along the lines of 30% of COVID deaths are unreported.

[rurallib]

4. Thanks - I was wondering if anyone had done some calculations like that

[Nay]

10. Yes, there is a category for all (reputable) state and local govs called "deaths from all causes."

That means that there is a count of every death certificate. There are, I think, daily counts (which would give us a long-running count over the weeks, months and years, and from which we could calculate, say, the average number who died each day in 2019, 2018, etc. Now, if years have gone by and the average number of deaths per day in my city was figured at 125, then a string of weeks and months where the number was 200 or over, my city has a problem that is causing an abnormal number of deaths, and we better find out what it is.

In the case of COVID, we know what the cause is. There isn't anything else going on to produce those larger numbers except COVID. There may be some fewer deaths from car accidents from the lockdown. But there are probably a few extra deaths from people too scared to go to a crowded hospital when they need to.

So, we can make a very good estimate of COVID deaths just by comparing "deaths from all causes" statistics. NYC, IIRC, is using those numbers in some of its calculations.

[lostnfound]

11. Here was NYT article on excess deaths

Nationwide, nearly 64,000 more people have died than usual between March 15 and April 25. That number is more than 16,000 higher than the official count of coronavirus deaths for that period.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

[smirkymonkey]

5. I don't think we are getting an accurate account of those who have died at home or on

the streets who were never included in the official Covid-19 death count because they were never hospitalized, tested or autopsied.

I definitely think it is much higher than the officially recorded number, particularly since people in those groups (who probably have a higher percentage of co-morbidities, less access to early intervention/health services and may also have substance abuse issues) are much more likely to die of the virus if they do contract it.

[crickets]

6. +1

[Demovictory9]

7. more than 100,000 for sure

[Crunchy Frog]

8. They do real time counts of flu fatalities

but the numbers they end up with are many, many times higher.

I'm assuming it will be the same with COVID-19.

[SoonerPride]

9. Analysis of excess deaths versus historical norms

Is the best way to tell.
Not all dead have been tested but when there is a huge wave of death that greatly exceeds historical averages for any month or week in any state you can safely extrapolate those excess deaths as being due to covid

[lostnfound]

12. Poll should state "between 125,000 and 150,000" instead of "at 125,000"

No one thinks it is EXACTLY 125,000. So some pick “150,000 to 200,000” who might prefer 125,000 to 150,000.

[tavernier]

13. The number actual cases is much lower

because we aren’t allowed to test everyone.

[ProfessorGAC]

14. I Went With 125k

I think they're understated by 25%.