Coronavirus not under control in US, warn Imperial scientists

[LiberalArkie]

Coronavirus is not under control in much of the US, according to a report from scientists at Imperial College London, who warn that relaxing the lockdowns further now could result in another surge in deaths.

Around half of all states still have reproduction rates above one, the report warns, meaning that each coronavirus patient is infecting more than one other. Any reproduction rate above one means the virus spreads exponentially.

The findings come as almost every state and territory in the US has begun to ease restrictions on movement, despite many not having hit the milestones set by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for doing so. Robert Redfield, the head of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told the Financial Times this week that he expected a second wave of cases this winter.

Axel Gandy, professor of mathematics at Imperial, said: “What this shows is that the epidemic has not passed. The numbers have come down, and the efforts are showing results. But continuous efforts are needed.”

Snip

https://www.ft.com/content/d46ca987-1574-4737-86a1-cf94d8152539

[Arkansas Granny]

1. Not under control in the least.

Arkansas reported 455 new confirmed cases of coronavirus, the state's largest single-day increase so far.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.4029tv.com/amp/article/arkansas-coronavirus-covid-19-1589221164/32437454

[ProfessorGAC]

3. How Much Have Increased Testing, AG?

Here in Illinois, the cases look like they're climbing fast.
But, they are testing so many more people that they naturally ID more cases.
What they're also reporting in positivity %. That's going down.
Quick example rounding the numbers that came up about a week ago here.:
Test 10,000 one day. 600 new cases, or 6% positivity.
Two weeks later, test 26,000 people. 1,000 new cases. Positivity now <4%.
Also deaths per 7 day rolling average is flat, and ICU bed usage % is going down
These other 2 numbers are independent variables. Somebody dies or not. Somebody is in ICU, or not.
How many tests are being run don't affect those numbers.
That's why I don't think new positives is a good metric anymore. Testing has gone up a LOT. Not what we really need, but PINO and his gang of punks caused that.
Check how many more tests were run in AK. If it's way higher than a few weeks ago, the 455 might not be as scary.

[LiberalArkie]

4. They have finally started testing the meat processing plants in Arkansas

Community spread, rest were in prisons

Yell county: 33
Washington county: 26
Benton county: 27
Union country: 19
Pulaski and Pope counties: 13
Craighead and Crittenden counties: 17

[ProfessorGAC]

6. Aha!

Thousands of people working 2 feet apart in a cold, high humidity environment.
That sounds like it would explain a lot.
Loads of new tests, loads of opportunity to spread.

[Arkansas Granny]

5. They are doing a lot more testing which accounts for some of the increase.

Earlier there was a problem with availability of testing materials.

The number today also includes tests from prisons and correctional facilities that, to the best of my understanding, had been previously tested but results had not been released til today. Even so, the non-institutional cases increased by more than 200 since yesterday.

I've been watching this site for info. There has been an increase in hospitalization and death over the last few days.
https://www.arkansasonline.com/arvirus/

[ProfessorGAC]

7. Test Supplies Were Short Here Too!

As the supply improved, our testing skyrocketed.
Like I said, a bit under 10,000 one day. Two weeks later we averaged 23,000+ a day.

[uponit7771]

8. *** NONE *** CDC admits to bold faced lying about testing. Mixing AB test with CV19 test (link)

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-states-are-misreporting-covid-19-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/

[ProfessorGAC]

10. Absent In The Article Is Illinois

I watch the daily briefings. They announce AB tests separately.
The announce cases, tests, AB tests, positivity %, hospitalizations, %ICU occupancy, and ventilator usage.
So, some states are not conflating the numbers.
And IL testing is way(!) up. The average day is 2.4 times the original daily goal.
Took 19 days to get to 10k, now averaging >24,000 per day.
So the article is about the CDC, and claims a few states conflating the data, but not all states.

[crickets]

2. K&R for visibility.

[Kid Berwyn]

9. Very important information.

Thank you for posting, LiberalArkie!

[Buckeye_Democrat]

11. I don't know if it's accurate, but the infection rate...

Last edited Thu May 21, 2020, 09:58 PM - Edit history (1)

... is 1.36 in the county closely adjacent to me, according to CovidActNow.

It's the 2nd highest among all the counties in Ohio and, coincidentally, it's where I've seen so many people not wearing masks in public.