Coronavirus hot spots erupt across the country; experts warn of second wave in South

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Dallas, Houston, Southeast Florida’s Gold Coast, the entire state of Alabama and several other places in the South that have been rapidly reopening their economies are in danger of a second wave of coronavirus infections over the next four weeks, according to a research team that uses cellphone data to track social mobility and forecast the trajectory of the pandemic.

The model, developed by ­PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and updated Wednesday with new data, suggests that most communities in the United States should be able to avoid a second spike in the near term if residents are careful to maintain social distancing even as businesses open up and restrictions are eased.

But the risk for resurgence is high in some parts of the country, especially in places where cases are already rising fast, including the counties of Crawford, Iowa; Colfax, Neb.; and Texas, Okla. and the city of Richmond. Since May 3, Crawford County’s caseload has risen by 750 percent, and Colfax County’s has increased 1,390 percent, according to state data compiled by The Washington Post.

This is an anxious moment for the nation as people emerge from shutdowns and communities try to reinvigorate economic activity. Scientists and public health experts are monitoring rates of infections and hospitalizations, but it is difficult to forecast during this transitional period because models struggle to capture how people actually behave, including adherence to social distancing and hand-washing practices.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-hot-spots-erupt-across-the-country-experts-warn-of-second-wave-in-south/ar-BB14nTMf?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=NL_ENUS_D1_20200521_1_3

[uponit7771]

1. K&R, this and finding out the CDC is bold faced lying about the numbers of test given is alarming

[elias7]

2. This is still the first wave

I don’t get how some people compartmentalize their personal experience and think we actually suppressed the first wave. It was just starting to lose some steam due to our efforts, but it looks like we gave up.

[SoonerPride]

4. We did more than give up

We surrendered.

Our "war time president" waved the white flag and we surrendered. It was too hard to just sit at home and watch Netflix. The government wouldn't pay people to stay safe, instead giving money to corporations and hoping they'd keep people employed.

But no, we have 38 MILLION unemployed, a virus still in the first wave running amok, and we simply surrendered.

[central scrutinizer]

6. Worse than surrendering

The commander ordered his loyal troops to turn around and open fire on the other units.

[ProfessorGAC]

5. Well, We Did Suppress The First Wave

If we hadn't there may have been a quarter million dead by now.
But, what we haven't done is eliminate the risk.
With even slow reopening, we can only hope to maintain flatness.
The "second wave" would be an upward trend which can happen if people get complacent & ignore distancing, masks, hand washing etc.
This is especially true if mass gathering resume.
The whole point of stay at home, masks, shutting down of nonessential activities was to suppress the wave. We did.
That is a long way, however, from managing the threat away.

[SWBTATTReg]

3. Maybe a new virus, called the 'open at all costs' virus...it seems to ...

propagate mainly in republican-led states/cities/etc., and unfortunately it's affecting all, regardless of party affiliations.

Maybe if enough deaths happen, that republicans will quit insisting on the importance of opening up? I doubt it, I'm waiting for the republicans to start blaming others, such as the victims themselves, the freaky weather, the virus is mutating, bad eating habits of the victims, etc. Any number of stupid nonsense answers that republicans are well known for.

[ProfessorPlum]

7. well well well. what a surprise

[doc03]

8. Did Trump say there won't be another shutdown

if there is a second wave? A Trumpsucker told me he did.
It does sound like something he would say.

[lunatica]

12. Yes, he said that, except

He doesn’t have any say about States shutting down, just like the first time. His delusional belief that he’s king makes him think he’s got powers he doesn’t.

[dixiegrrrrl]

9. i'm sitting here in Ala. watching the rise.

State has 4-5 large population cities of about 250,000 each and the rest of the state is small towns and lots of very rural areas, most small towns are about 45 miles apart.

The confirmed cases, deaths have climbed steadily since March 22, now doubling every 3-5 fays, depending
on the population areas.
Interestingly, the highest cases per 1,000 are in the poorest areas of the famed Black Belt.

"My" rural county of 23,000 population has so far had 22 confirmed cases, 2 deaths.

Our gov. has decided to go ahead and open public gathering places. It's Memorial Day weekend coming up.


Next week's count is gonna be interesting.

[misanthrope]

10. Of Alabama's most densely populated counties

Jefferson County (heart of the Birmingham MSA) had a large onslaught of cases early. It was overtaken by Mobile County after a in mid-April. Montgomery County has had a steep rise lately and Madison County (Huntsville) has fallen behind the others by a long shot.

Now, if you start at the northern border of the state and work your way southwards, from Madison to Jefferson, to Montgomery, to Mobile right now, the per capita numbers escalate along the way.

I find it no coincidence Madison County has fared so much better considering the average educational level of its residents as compared to the others.

[misanthrope]

11. Also, those high per capita Black Belt numbers

Are due in large part to their lower general population numbers.

For instance, Sumter County has a per capita rate of 1,360 per 100,000 whereas Mobile County has a per capita rate of 453 per 100,000. Why so high? Because Sumter's 169 cases are a bigger hunk of its 12,691-person population than Mobile's 1,870 cases are of its 413,210 population.

Comparing sparsely populated counties to those on the other end of the density scale seems to be an apples-to-oranges thing.

[dixiegrrrrl]

13. Be damned....so trump WAS right about different capitas....