538: If Trump Loses In 2020, He'll Be The Nominee Again In 2024

[SoonerPride]

Welcome to another episode of Confidence Interval, where we make a persuasive case for a hot take … and then reveal how confident we really feel about the idea. Here, elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich argues that if President Trump loses the election in 2020, he’ll be the GOP’s nominee again in 2024.

https://abcn.ws/2XeNzUK

Personally I think he won't live to 2024.

[MontanaMama]

1. I don't think it'll be MF45 in the ballot.

It might be Junior though. The grift must go on.

[dalton99a]

7. +1. The cult will demand it

[jimfields33]

35. No. I think DeSantis is their favorite currently. That could change on a dime though.

[aggiesal]

87. Not if he's in jail! n/t

[R Merm]

93. or dead

[aggiesal]

98. That would be my preference ...

Last edited Thu May 21, 2020, 07:34 PM - Edit history (1)

but I'm a good catholic boy.

[MontanaMama]

112. It's my preference and

I’m a fairly bad catholic girl.

[aggiesal]

114. I've been looking for a bad catholic girl all my life! ...

[SoonerPride]

10. I don't think they get entertained enough by the lesser trumps

only trump senior is gross enough to excite them

[TheBlackAdder]

37. I'm OK with that. That four-year gap spent in a Federal Prison might change the 2024 race.

[Thekaspervote]

70. Junior is a biggeridiot..bring it!!

[TreasonousBastard]

2. I don't buy it. I wouldn't doubt he'd try a comeback, but there just aren't enough Magats out there.

[CaptYossarian]

27. There will be even less of the doorknob lickers.

Death by hoax.

[TxDemChem]

66. Exactly

You took the words right out of my mouth

[NRaleighLiberal]

3. he'll be pushing up daisies. princess Ivantabenext maybe?

[Mike 03]

12. My guess too.

He doesn't have another four years in him. Between his mounting health issues and future legal difficulties, he's going to face the roughest post-presidency in American history, and future historians will try not to burst out laughing as they describe it as "brief and tragic."

[fleur-de-lisa]

4. I agree with your assessment.

Dumpus will stroke out before 2024.

[Aristus]

5. They'll nominate him again???

They'll have four years to get out a pick-ax and a shovel and go prospecting for a squalid swamp thing lower and slimier than Trump. You don't think they'll find someone? The Republican political trajectory since Nixon resigned has been lower, stupider, more incompetent, more disgusting, more driven by desire to destroy the country (It's hard to believe now that George Bush Sr. was a brief respite from all that...), and more appealing to the mindless drones infesting the below-average half of America.

The GOP has no particular desire to step up their game and find someone gifted and competent. The worst, the better has been a winning stratagem for them for nearly fifty years.

[SoonerPride]

8. Sean Hannity it is then!

[Dan]

73. The poor GOP

Probably wondering who to select, unfortunately for them Mr. Ed is dead. (Younger generation, the talking white horse from TV land - long ago).

[generalbetrayus]

99. Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you,

Republican Presidential nominee Louie Gohmert!

[global1]

6. Won't He And His Family Be in Jail?....nt

[CaptYossarian]

32. You can get a degree or write a book in jail.

His cult followers would really enjoy a Dem losing to an inmate.

[dawg]

71. He could write a book about ...

his struggle.

[generalbetrayus]

101. He's too lazy. He'll just have Melanoma plagiarize the original

and have it published under Donald's name.

[CaptYossarian]

109. If he continues to go mask-free, it would be called "Mein Cough".

[gratuitous]

9. I will take that action

Straight up bet, or are there odds that will make it worth my while?

[brooklynite]

11. More likely he'd try to put Jr. up...

[alittlelark]

13. If his corpse is the 2024 R nominee I WILL DONATE

$1000 of KFC and McD's Gift Certificates.

[Yavin4]

14. Depends on how badly he loses in 2020.

If he gets wiped off the map along with other Republicans, then he will be persona non grata in the party.

[Whiskeytide]

25. This is the best analysis in the thread. n/t

[redstatebluegirl]

36. If he takes the Senate with him, they will never acknowledge him again.

[Yavin4]

52. Like Bush II.

The last Republican convention that he spoke at was in 2004.

[BComplex]

15. I hope his ass will be in jail in 2024.

That's where he belongs. That's where Bill Barr belongs.

[SoonerPride]

33. Dead or in jail. I'll take either one.

[BComplex]

51. I'm good with either one, too.

I'd rather dead BEFORE the election, if he'll keep taking hydroxychloraquin!

[Cirque du So-What]

16. I believe

gophers will be delivering his mail in 2024.

[malaise]

17. He'll croak before then

That's all

[dalton99a]

22. At least severely demented - perhaps he'll deny he was ever president

or Ivanka was ever his wife

[malaise]

24. ROFL

[NNadir]

18. He'll be the first candidate ever to run a campaign from prison. n/t.

[smb]

28. Actually, There's Precedent

A century ago:

Eugene V. Debs did not speak on election night in 1920. The Socialist presidential contender was, in his words, a "candidate in seclusion," imprisoned in the Atlanta Federal Penitentiary for speaking out against the draft during World War I....

[NNadir]

39. Thanks I forgot. Trump would be the first person to run a campaign from prison who committed...

...real crimes.

Debs was a prisoner of conscience.

Trump has no conscience.

[Vogon_Glory]

19. I don't think Trump will be the Rethugly nominee

Last edited Thu May 21, 2020, 12:47 PM - Edit history (1)

First, his health: I’m not sure that he’ll live to September, let alone 2024.

Second, prosecution: Even if Joe wants to repeat Obama’s mistake of letting bygones be bygones, I’d say that there is a lot of pressure within and without the Democratic Party to prosecute Donnie and his friends.

[NYC Liberal]

30. He will be prosecuted by New York State regardless of whether Biden wants to pursue it.

I think justice will be done.

[smb]

31. He'll Pardon Himself (Or Resign At The Last Minute And Have The Whitebread Sepulcher Pardon Him)...

...so there won't be any federal charges. The states can still lock him up, though.

[aggiesal]

96. Can't be pardoned until convicted of a crime ...

So Pence can't pardon him, if Pendejo45 were to resign, just because.

[smb]

103. Sorry, But I'll Have To Call NIX ON That Argument nt

[aggiesal]

108. Good call, see my response #106 n/t

[generalbetrayus]

104. How did Gerald Ford pardon Nixon then?

[aggiesal]

106. Good call.

Ford granted to Richard Nixon, a full and unconditional pardon for any crimes that he might have committed against the United States as president.

I would think that this appears to be nothing more than a complete cover up.

If already pardoned, why waste the money to discover what was actually committed.
This just doesn't seem fair.

[Initech]

20. Somehow I don't think we'll ever have the Grover Cleveland situation again.

[sarcasmo]

21. No way Trump makes 2024 with his lifestyle.

[smirkymonkey]

23. He'll either be dead or completely non-functional by then.

At the rate he is deteriorating, he won't make it that long. And Junior? No effing way. The guy is a loser from Loserville. He'll start drinking again and that will be the end of that. Once he's out of office, I am convinced that entire family is going to either end up in prison or be financially ruined by the endless lawsuits filed against them.

No more Trumps EVER!!

[Lokee11]

26. Needs to be locked up way before 2024 ,when he loses in 2020.

When he loses in 2020 (fingers crossed) he needs to be dragged straight to the cell from the White House on inauguration day, along with his abetting criminal family members. Then Joe and the Dems (that hopefully will be controlling the House and Senate) have to put guidelines in place to make sure no one in the position of president can ever abuse the powers in this manner again. Joe has to be one to willfully give up some of his powers as president to make sure no one ever again can try and become Dictator in Chief, which is what this Orange Anus has basically tried somewhat successfully to become.

FDT!!!

[link:|

[ProudMNDemocrat]

29. Trump will face prosecution......

He will be tied up in court for years, if not in prison in New York.

[still_one]

34. Nope, probably Romney, but if we win 2020 big, the republican name should be garbage

for quite some time

[Cosmocat]

38. This is correct IF he loses and IF he leaves office

nm

[philf99]

40. Republican Civil War

I think we will see a Republican Civil War and it will be interesting to see what side prevails and that will help determine their nominee

[SoonerPride]

42. The dumber more racist side.

The country club republicans are dead in the water

[philf99]

55. Country Club Republicans

Have the money and I would underestimate them

[spanone]

41. I think his loss will be so overwhelming that even the feeble minds of republicans won't allow it

[oasis]

43. GOP going down in 2024 no matter who they trot out. nt

those guys are going to be out of business in the Executive Branch.

[MyNameGoesHere]

44. You can run for president from the Hague?

[DFW]

45. Republicans will look for another nominee

They have plenty of corrupt, uncaring, phony religious "conservatives" who do NOT yet disgust the rest of the world.

They want someone just as evil and just as corrupt, but who knows how to package it better (think Dick Cheney).

[ProfessorGAC]

46. Nonsensical Supposition

There is absolutely nothing he said based upon anything other than hot take creation.
If he loses big, investigation by Congress will stain him, and the total numbers of dead from COVID will be a millstone.
538 has some unusual ideas on statistical projection, & this isn't even that.
He gave himself a "meh"! I'm giving this a "no way" grade of F.

[Celerity]

48. +100000

[Hortensis]

116. Agree. Little conversation bomb to go with the cocktails is all.

[Celerity]

47. they gave it a 'Meh' the 2nd lowest possible

[bigtree]

49. the new Lyndon LaRouche

...running from prison.

[tblue37]

50. I think his dementia will progress far enough to prevent that, even if he's still alive. nt

[Jayster84]

53. Nope.

Once a republican loses, they are cast aside. You also get the added benefit of listening to all those republican voters swear they never voted for the loser.

[Buckeyeblue]

54. I'm not convinced he'll be the nominee this year

I think he would rather not run than lose. He is in a position to strong arm the party on the nominee. Probably Pence. But Desantis would be an interesting choice. Of course, he would have a promised pardon in place. If the nominee lost, he would just resign and Pence would pardon him.

And then it's on to Trump TV.

[tinrobot]

105. I've been having similar thoughts.

His ego would much rather declare victory than suffer a humiliating defeat.

He could use the time between the convention and January to pardon his friends, give breaks to Russia, and grab everything that's not nailed down.

[Buckeyeblue]

113. That's right. In some ways he would be more powerful

Because Republicans would have to say nothing. Or risk him derailing the election completely. His base would be pissed off because he would blame a number of things for his not running...except his certain defeat.

[0rganism]

56. more likely to be Jr or Pompeo

DJT looks like he straight-up doesn't want the gig anymore
that whole "public service" thing seems to give him invisible head trauma and maybe indigestion
if he has to stand around looking like a useless asshole, and blab endlessly at podiums like an ignorant useless asshole, and surround himself with other useless assholes, and pretend to love the nation's oversupply of useless assholes, i think he'd rather get paid a TV star salary for his efforts.
as far as accomplishments go, he's already pulled off the greatest con-job in history, everything else is going to be a let-down.

[hlthe2b]

57. Ithink he'll be full blown dementia, stroked out or dead long before that.

[Kali]

60. hopefully stroked out

and soon, on live tv.

[hlthe2b]

88. Might make a lot of us believe in or at least consider existence of a higher power if happened soon.

[Kali]

111. maybe a higher power sent him to punish us

if so, it was a good choice.

[Martin Eden]

58. Can an incarcerated felon run for president?

Just asking.

[ffr]

102. My question exactly!

[BigBearJohn]

59. He'll be thrown in jail in 2021. Hard to run for office from prison

[JCMach1]

61. Ivanka, 2024

Been the plan all along...

[llmart]

95. +1000

That is absolutely the truth.

[The King of Prussia]

62. Snigger

"Personally I think he won't live to 2024"

I'm not convinced he'll live to the 2020 election. I wouldn't want to be a morbidly obese, septuagenarian sudafed addict with respiratory problems at the moment.

[relayerbob]

63. Regarding your last comment ..

Not if Putin has anything to say about it

[skip fox]

64. Yes. He might be dead or in full-blown senility by then.

But here's another factor: Will Republicans, once rid of Trump, allow him to capture them again?

[rainin]

65. He should be in jail. We'll have to wait and see if President Biden

elects to move forward and not look back. I sincerely hope he doesn't make that mistake. The entire tRump family should be treated like Osama Bin Laden. And all tRump's pals should be running for cover, not appearing on OAN or Fox, or the Lara Trump show.

[abakan]

67. With any luck at all

He'll be in prison or dead

[Thekaspervote]

68. No... he'll be dead or so demented that even the biggest team of handlers will not manage him

[Baitball Blogger]

69. No he won't.

[bucolic_frolic]

74. What's going to inflate his jet skis? Hydroxychloroquine?

Me thinks this Nathaniel Rakich is trying to introduce ageism in the campaign so that Democrats will say Trump will be too old and that will reflect on our nominee now. But Joe Biden is a healthy, disciplined, trim man. Trump appears laden with all the adverse effects of the worst American hamberder diet you can muster.

[milestogo]

75. Its hard to run a campaign for president when you're dead or in prison.

[OverBurn]

76. I'm mid 50's bad heart, bad over all health and disabled.

My goal is to out live that evil mutherf**ker. I'm afraid I won't.

[RobertDevereaux]

77. From solitary confinement, straightjacketed and foaming at the mouth?

I SERIOUSLY DOUBT IT!

[turbinetree]

78. He will be in jail or have a conviction behind his name...............

and I second your motion SoonerPride.............I don't think he will be alive in 2024..............and I have no pity none, zilch, zero, and whats really disgusting is that, if and when he passes away, he can request to be buried at Arlington................and he will try to take up the whole section and have it reserved for him.............and that f**king ego..................

[Skittles]

79. ridiculous

[JDC]

80. No he won't. But we can count on hearing from him all day everyday

Once he is out of office. He is addicted to the attention and will not let it go.

[BlueJac]

81. Seriously doubt it!

I see jail in his future, if not a mental breakdown!

[Historic NY]

82. Going to be hard getting him out of one of these....

[link:http://www.thecasketdepot.com/sporprca.html|

[liberalmuse]

83. I totally see him in a wheelchair at some point.

Weak, feeble and being wheeled out of the White House. I don't know why my mind keeps going there (no offense to anyone using a wheel chair!). I agree he won't make it to 2024, or if he does, he will be severely incapacitated. Well, he is now, but physically as well as mentally.

[cbdo2007]

84. He still may not be the nominee in 2020

[SayItLoud]

85. I don't believe Felons can run but I may be wrong but for sure I know

if he's in some sort of jail he can't run. Sure, I know he's never going to see the inside of a prison...but maybe house arrest to serve some time. See, I want the Presidency, the House, the Senate all to be Blue...and I want REVENGE !

[Bernardo de La Paz]

89. By 2024, he'll have forgotten what a presidency is. And who his wife is (was). . . . nt

[niyad]

90. Personally, I hope he strokes out on live tv. SOON! As much as I would love to see that

Morbidly obese orange thug in prison, I think he could still cause havoc. At this point, I am okay with letting Kharma deal with him on the other side, as long as he is not polluting this side.

[Warpy]

91. Oh, he'll live, but he'll make even less sense

meaning the perseveration and word salad will have taken over completely. It won't matter to Republicans, who only listen for buzzwords and catch phrases, their comprehension being that impaired.

He won't win, he'll be far too old for most of the electorate (even the ones his age or older) and running him again might finally rid of us of that party in its present form.

They'll run him again because bidnessmen will long for the glory days of rolled back regulations.

[PlanetBev]

92. Oh, what nonsense

He’ll be found dead long before that, in mid-Tweet, sitting on the toilet with his pants around his ankles.

[LiberalFighter]

94. Or 2022

Sooner if we all team up and load up his twitter account on a daily basis.

[gopiscrap]

97. this why Biden HAS to prosecute to the full extent possible

[Chainfire]

100. Never happen

The GOP will be glad to put Trump in the rear-view mirror if he loses. He is liable to be directly responsible for them losing the White House and the Senate. They will find some other puppet to run.

[DetlefK]

107. HAHA, No. The GOP will backstab and disown him as soon as he's out of power.

They will immediately deny any responsibility for anything that Trump has done while in office.

"Thanks for the judges and the tax-cuts. And now fuck off."

[WestLosAngelesGal]

110. Somehow, he will try to pass the baton to...

Ivanka.

[TheFarseer]

115. No chance

If he loses, Republican establishment will totally disavow him. He’ll be a Sarah Palin-like figure.