Pandemic expert: 'Recognize that your leaders have made a terrible decision'

[babylonsister]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/13/1944758/--Recognize-that-your-leaders-have-made-a-terrible-decision



Pandemic expert: 'Recognize that your leaders have made a terrible decision'
Dartagnan
Wednesday May 13, 2020 · 1:01 PM EDT
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As this country approaches its 10th week of coping with the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become clear that what is driving state efforts to reopen businesses and other public gathering places is not any realistic analysis of the public health consequences. Rather, these misguided rushes to reopen reflect a political imperative pushed by the Republican Party at the urging of their corporate and business donors, who are concerned most of all about the economic damage they face if public health is prioritized.

Most Republican (and a few Democratic) governors are knowingly risking the lives of their own citizens by permitting businesses to reopen on a broader scale, and Donald Trump relentlessly repeats the reopening mantra and continues to minimize the danger to Americans on a near-daily basis, all to protect corporations and the wealthy.

And corporations are ready: Advertisers are already beginning to shift their focus from acknowledging and accommodating the stifled conditions during the “lockdown” phase (“in these uncertain times”) and are now beginning to emphasize the promise of reopening to a nation of frustrated would-be consumers.

snip//

It doesn’t take a crystal ball to come to the same conclusions that Dr. Bar-Yam urges here. One of the most remarkable aspects of Tuesday’s Senate testimony by Drs. Fauci, Redfield, and others was the fact that none of these medical experts offered much in the way of hope. Beyond some vague promises of increased testing ability in the fall, and the promise of a vaccine some day far in the future, there was nothing in their testimony to provide any type of real reassurance.

In fact, the only voices recommending reopening seem to be those of persons with no health expertise whatsoever, those with a political agenda, or those whose political constraints compel them. Tuesday’s Senate testimony was also remarkable for the guarded, reluctant tone put forth, even by reputable physicians such as Fauci. It was frankly impossible to watch that testimony without feeling that something very critical was being omitted from the overall picture out of sheer political expediency.

In a perfect world, that would give us all the information we need. The public health consequences of this pandemic remain dire, a fact that has been aggravated immeasurably by a dysfunctional federal response. The interests of Donald Trump and other Republicans pushing for rapid reopening are not the same interests motivating Americans who simply long for the restrictive shutdowns to end. If there is one takeaway from Bar-Yam’s article, it should be that the political leaders agitating for reopening don’t know any more than we do what the consequences will be, but they’re willing to risk American lives to find out.

[smirkymonkey]

1. K&R

[Spider Jerusalem]

3. I see stupidity isn't confined to Republicans (n/t)

[greytdemocrat]

4. I agree.

[cate94]

5. Which people in your inner circle

Are you willing to sacrifice?

[lunatica]

6. That should be your choice

and in making that choice you should be the only person to benefit or suffer for it. If you want to get outside again take reasonable precautions and go ahead. But to demand that others follow suit is not going to work. People will do what they feel is the right thing for them and their families. Just be aware that what you choose to do affects everyone you come in contact with. We are all connected whether we like it or not. We are all both victim and killer In this Pandemic.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

7. How many deaths of doctors, nurses, EMTs, receptionists, orderlies are acceptable to you?

[herding cats]

8. No, the vast majority won't die.

Neither did the vast majority die in 1918 from the pandemic. Yet, it was horrific enough In it's death totals we still speak of to this day.

Those of high risk who still have to earn to survive (a lot more people here in the US than just elderly) are going back out there because they have no other option. They have no other choice to survive than to get this country going again for people like you. Because people like you want to jump the gun because you're bored before we put anything in place to protect them.

Have fun living your life again at their expense.

[herding cats]

9. This pandemic has taught me much about empathy and those who have none.

The countries who say were selfish slobs might have been correct all along. American exceptionalism is an actual mental disease. It's symptoms are selfishness, entitlement and immaturity. It appears to be endemic to a portion of the population. They shun science because it inconveniences them. They don't want to be bothered or bored by their lives being disrupted and care naught for others. They're who were up against. They're where the line is drawn. They've heard and choose actively to ignore the reality, because they don't like how it will impact them. Even though it will no matter all their denials.

The afflicted care only about themselves and their inconvenience. Be damned the rest of their fellow citizens. It's literally everyman for themselves for them now. The collectivism of patriotism has died on the vine for some among us.

[localroger]

10. Nobody said the obvious

Before the lockdown both new cases (which are undercounted) and deaths (which lag new infections by three weeks) were doubling every three days. They did this with perfect repeatability starting in late January when the number of infections would have been in single digits, through mid-March for new infections and early April for deaths. Here on DU we had an argument in late February when there was an OP warning that there would be 12,400 deaths by the first week of April. One of our members insisted that this simply wasn't possible and wasn't going to happen. When the date came around, though, the number was 12,800. The math works.

And after this reopening some of us will continue to be careful, so we will probably be looking at a doubling period of more like 6 or 7 days. This might be quickly noticed in states that aren't trying to whitewash the infection stats, but it will take a month or so to become impossible to hide via the death toll. By that time we will have seen four or five doublings. In early hotspots like NYC and NOLA the rate will probably be slowing as the disease is starved of new victims to infect. But in the late arrival states it will just be getting rolling. Since the death rate lags whatever measures are eventually reimposed by three weeks we will probably blow past a million before getting it in hand again.

People like Fauci and Redfield know this. They also know that like our DU companion back in February the people who need to act on this information simply won't believe the simple truth. Geometric progression goes counter to our linear instincts, seeming benign and reasonable until it suddenly isn't. Years ago one of Obama's pandemic team leaders said "everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist, and everything we do afterward will seem inadequate." Welcome to the inadequate phase.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

11. K&R. +1

KY.............