POTUS-GA: Why We're Not Ready to Call Georgia a Toss Up

[RandySF]

There's little doubt that Georgia is becoming more competitive. While Mitt Romney carried the state in 2012 by 53 percent, both Trump and 2018 GOP nominee, Brian Kemp, took just over 50 percent of the vote. A lot of this movement can be traced to shifting voting patterns in and around Atlanta. For example, in 2012, Obama carried Fulton County (Atlanta) by 19 points. Just four years later, Clinton carried it by a whopping 44 points and Abrams expanded that gap to 46 points. Suburban Gwinnett and Cobb Counties, long known as traditional GOP strongholds, flipped to Clinton in 2016 and gave even more of their votes to Abrams in 2018.

Even so, it will take more than just an improvement in the Atlanta and urban/suburban areas of the state to flip it Democratic. It also takes shaving points off the large share of the vote Republicans like Trump and Kemp can generate from small town, exurban and rural parts of the state. Biden supporters argue that the former VP is much better suited for this challenge than Clinton or Abrams. He's not as polarizing and starts the race with higher positive ratings than Clinton.

It's also important to note that this poll was taken at a time when,

1. President Trump is at a low point.

2. Biden has not yet been 'defined' (a.k.a. not buried under millions of dollars of negative ads).

More important, as one Democratic strategist said to me, Georgia is not a 'tipping point' state, so it's going to be hard for the Biden campaign to justify spending the money that it will take to compete there when you are also trying to put other expensive states in the win column. In other words, Biden doesn't need Georgia to hit 270. He does need Pennsylvania. And, Michigan. And Wisconsin or Arizona. Plus, they also have to play defense in states that lean blue but could become competitive — like Minnesota or Nevada.



https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/why-were-not-ready-call-georgia-toss

[Proud liberal 80]

1. What got from that is

We have to keep the narrative that this is a close horse race and taking electoral votes away from Trump will make it look like he is losing, also we ca not excite the Democratic base because we always try to demoralize them.

[DFW]

2. Give it a little time, Charlie

I met Charlie Cook only once, and that was maybe 15 years ago.

But he's a hell of a nice guy, and a brutally thorough, objective analyst. He sees trends, but also knows how fluid they sometimes are. He reports on the moment, but won't hesitate to change his tune if he sees the slightest change in the situation. Trust Charlie to have this actual moment in time pegged. However, you have to keep following him to follow where things are going. If the sands under our feet (or Georgia's feet) start shifting, he'll be the first to notice, and the first to say so.

[Mariana]

3. Let's not forget that many of the churches are closed.

Once the white Evangelical Churches are all open for business again, they'll resume their preaching that Trump is God's own hand-picked president, and that anyone who votes against him is doing the Devil's work. That will get their members right back into line. And there are lots of white Evangelicals in Georgia.