pent-up supply could soon ravage home prices.

[Demovictory9]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-next-big-shoe-to-drop-in-the-us-economy-could-hit-by-july-2020-05-13

Why ‘the next big shoe to drop’ in the U.S. economy could hit by July

---------

“This is supposed to be the spring selling season, and new listings are supposed to surge,” Richter explained in a post. “But sellers aren’t interested in having potentially infected people traipsing through their home; and they know that buyers are woefully absent, and it doesn’t make that much sense to list the home because previously listed homes are still languishing on the market.”

Here’s a chart of what the trend typically looks like vs. the current reality:

?uuid=92c2c1b0-955c-11ea-a7b0-9c8e992d421e

According to Thomas Stone, a Sonoma Country realtor quoted on the Wolf Street blog, there’s a very rough road ahead in the housing sector due to falling appraisals, a trickier loan market and a glut of vacation rentals that owners need to shed.

“The next big shoe to drop will be when appraisers call a declining market, probably in August but perhaps as early as July,” he said. “And this bleeds into the difficulties of getting a mortgage.”

[wryter2000]

1. Plus

People out of work are likely to start defaulting on their mortgages

[coti]

4. Yeah, there's a lot more to this than sellers avoiding the hassle of CV

People aren't buying because they know damned well we're going into a depression and in six months' time a house is going to lose 20-30% of its value. Wait a bit for prices to drop, then buy.

Right now, people should be saving their money.

[qazplm135]

9. I was going to buy a house this summer

but I'm definitely waiting til next summer. I have my military retirement and good savings so I can put 100K down whenever I do buy.

I figure houses that are 300 now might be 250 next summer.

[Demovictory9]

10. I was looking but noticed on zillow that prices were being cut recently. now waiting.

[jimfields33]

5. Of course home assessments will be lowered so lower revenue for cities

Lots of problems.

[Demovictory9]

11. yep. and states broke from unemployment payouts, now will get less property tax

[CentralMass]

2. Well from my perspective. Great.

[msongs]

3. low rates are great for refinances if u can get them nt

[Coventina]

6. Like I'm supposed to feel sorry for homeowners in Ca wine country?

Yeah.....I'm more concerned about inner city folks trying to hang on to their only asset: their house.

Somehow, I don't think the people living in the counties represented in the graph are in danger of going hungry any time soon.

[napi21]

7. No kidding! In Ga everywhere I go there's another new sub division being built. NONE of then under

$285,000! Most are $40,000 and up to the millions. I've remarked to my husband many times "Who the hell is going to buy all these EXPENSIVE homes?" That was before the virus hit. Now, who the hell is going to have enough $$ to buy any of them?

[Demovictory9]

12. regular houses are 750k here in so cal. people pay because that's the market

In GA, maybe those houses will go unsold.

[Xolodno]

8. Have two realtors in the family...four if you count extended.

But one is in total denial and thinks the market will stay stable.

The other asked me what I think, told her not only will housing prices crash, but so will rental rates. Right now in California there is a moratorium on evictions and foreclosures...once that's lifted, all hell will break loose.

People are hoarding cash, particularly if they think they won't have a job soon....and job cuts will happen. So they are all preparing to bail out of the high cost of living state. I mean come on, when the real estate crash happened, where do you think the people who lost homes or leases went to? They went back "home" in another state. They migrated here because of the better paying jobs and weather.

For example, Princess Cruises is based in So Cal...and they were the poster child of cruise ships and the virus. You can bet your sweet ass, they will shed a shit load of jobs once they slowly resume operations.

I expect a blood bath at Disney which is headquartered in So Cal as well. Sent a Resume to them awhile back for a management position, mind you, I'm just a senior analyst at a financial company. They called, asked what my salary requirements were, told them, one, I wasn't looking for a raise as I know the "boring" financial industry tends to pay a bit more, so if you stay around my current salary I'm good, then told her my salary....minus bonus. She then told me that's exactly what they pay their managers at mid-grade, but would still forward my Resume. Never heard back.

But they could do that because working for Disney was "sexy"...and sell themselves short. Think that may change after all this.

[Demovictory9]

13. one of the homes I was looking at is in Anaheim. My realtor was in denial (or pretended to be)

about the future market. How can the housing in Anaheim NOT be impacted by Disney? We'll see...

[enid602]

14. Phoenix

Four houses on my little street have sold for between $575K and $1.2MM, since 3/17/20. In central Phoenix. Usually, we're the ones who go into a real estate depression first. I'm not even sure that houses have fully recouped since the last recession.

[Demovictory9]

15. Phoenix and Las Vegas got hit hard in 2008

no offense but 1.1M for Phoenix???

[enid602]

16. $1.2Mm

4000 sq ft on an acre & @1700 ft elevation. 360 degree views of city through huge windows and backs up to Wind Rock, part of the Phoenix Mtn Preserve. Architecturally significant. 6 mi from downtown.