Red Alert. Losing California and Wisconsin by these margins should be viewed as alarming

[Edwcraig]

Interested in the analysis of exit polls and turn out numbers. What was the dynamic of mail in voting. What was the extent of voter turn out. What were the impacts of the economy vs public safety messaging on both sides. What was Trump's approval rating in these districts as compared to the approval of the governor. ........... We ignore this at our peril.

[uponit7771]

1. I agree, but...there was something weird going on in CA-25 where Garcia was backed by a left leaning

... group.

[FM123]

2. We should definitely be taking a closer look at what happened and why.

By the way, welcome to DU

[BGBD]

3. The Wisconsin results...

shouldn't worry you at all. That is a deeply red district and the margin is way down. if that is the result in November Biden will win Wisconsin easily.

Trump won there by 21.

[Cha]

4. Yeah, the details are important.

[Edwcraig]

5. Good to know.

[stopbush]

6. Nope

[greenjar_01]

7. ...

[fleur-de-lisa]

8. HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!

Nice try.

[abqtommy]

9. We focus on the vote and ignore the ratfucking to our peril, too...

[SlogginThroughIt]

15. Ok but what are we going to do about the ratfucking?

I hear this all the time but what is the answer for it?

[abqtommy]

17. I'm disappointed that there wasn't more pushback in 2016 when we knew we had evidence

of conspiracy and collusion but it's like we just rolled over. We could do a lot of good by
staging large demonstrations. It's like we all turned into complacent zombies. States could step up
with investigations and prosecutions. Like Hendirx said, there's got to be someway outta here. I wish I had a better answer.

[Indykatie]

10. Both CA - 25 and WI-07 were GOP Held Seats - That Seems To Be Missing as A Factor In Analysis

CA-25 had been in GOP hands for decades until Dems won it in the 2018 wave. As for the WI seat, Trump won the district by 21 points. That's right 21 freaking points. Dems lost in the special election by 15. We may have a chance to re-take CA-25 in Nov if we have tremendous turn-out but clearly our 2018 win was an anomaly for the district. It's fine to do a deeper dive but your concern seems a little over the top given the history of these 2 districts.

[FloridaBlues]

11. Will they face another election in November?

[brooklynite]

12. Why?

2018 was an anomaly in CA-25, and WI-7 was a Republican seat.

[Wounded Bear]

13. Not sure this warrants a panic attack...

that's likely to send precious resources after frivolous ideas.

Sure, let's find out the facts, etc. But the national trend hasn't really changed based on 2 races in red areas.

[mercuryblues]

14. I would be interested in your analysis

on the Graham/Harrison election. What are you hearing, that you can share publically?

Harrison is neck and neck in polling with Graham. Last week a BIG Graham donor jumped ship and endorsed Harrison. Forgot the guys name but he is a CEO of SC Michelin. He also wrote an excoriating OpEd on Graham.


https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/opinion/2020/05/10/opinion-why-endorse-challenger-jaime-harrison-over-sen-lindsey-graham/3083562001/

[msongs]

16. historically red seats are red. OMG the sky is falling nt

[Hekate]

19. Who are you, exactly? I live in California: how are "we" losing California?

Do share your sources, Edwcraig.

[LeftInTX]

20. The Wisconsin seat is in a rural, conservative area of the state

The Democrat was running against a state senator.
Of course, it would be great if she won.
I think if she had held elected office previously, it would have helped.
But that area is just plain ole, old with old people.
It's the home of national forests where politics is mostly local and focuses on the local DNR and electric companies. (Utilities or lack of them are a big thing up there)

Me calling my dad: "Dad we don't have internet up here"
Dad: "I will call so and so"
Two weeks later, still no internet.

Me calling my dad: "Dad the power is out up here?"
Dad: "Call so and so"
Me: Calling so and so etc...


I'm not too worried about that race.