I'm good and goddamned sick and tired of the notion of "simplicity"

[PCIntern]

with respect to all of this pandemic and its viral roots.

Microbiologically, physiologically, and genetically both we and the virus are incredibly complex,,,complex beyond virtually anyone's ability to begin to understand the ten-dimensional web of intricacy. for all the knowledge of man, for all the millions of research-years into the science of life, we have only begun to scratch the surface. the depths of knowledge are virtually limitless - the well goes down into a virtual infinity of darkness.that which occurs at the molecular level, and of the processes involved are just beginning to truly be understood. To give you an idea: my Genetics textbook from 1972, useful only as a doorstop now, was considered the complete book of knowledge of its day. A textbook today would not only contradict and contravene much of what was in the old text, but whole fields of research have been invented since then which were not even considered by the authors, much less the details, much less the paths upon which the world's laboratories are striding down. The book is ancient history. My point is that at that time, people professed to understand the process oh so well. turns out, not only were they not even close, but in many many respects, they were dead wrong. That's OK, that's science, that's knowledge, that's how it works. It' how humans think and process and attain. Intellectual scientists know they are just creating the early building blocks for later discoveries. there is no endpoint.

So where is this going? I'll tell you...

Yes, masks are important, they are great for massively reducing the transmission of the disease, but this disease has evolved such that one version of transmission, though obviated by the technique of wearing a mask, will be successful in transmitting in other manners and it will evolve such that it will become incredibly efficient in its transmission. It is a remarkable organism inasmuch as by and large it does not kill its host: it is available for transmission in asymptomatic carriers for a great length of time. It can live in aerosol, on surfaces, in excrement and semen we think, on plain surfaces for great lengths of time, so proximity is everything. Viral load...yes that is apparently at this point required for infection or possibly reinfection but that doesn't have to remain either...it could wind up evolving into a very very potent pathogen.

Now the mechanisms for all this are complex of course, and we don't know, we can only guess. but the one thing we cannot do is invoke an "if...then" proposition, that is IF we do such and such THEN we will rid ourselves of this pox. No, we will statistically improve the situation, but from what I can see, there are avenues and mechanisms which are heretofore minimized or not realized yet. Yes, we are researching, but please allow me this rhetorical question: have you seen a basic scientist on the air who has stated that we will in reasonable time solve this problem, say the way we solved polio or smallpox? I haven't. and that is important. They DON'T KNOW. And they DON'T KNOW HOW at this point.

I am personally frightened for the country at this point: we have no attention span as a nation and we have a terrific number of people who either believe that this cannot happen to them and theirs through religiosity or luck, who believe that this really does not exist in the manner that the mass shootings didn't really exist, and those who are just plain dumb. This is going to be neither simple nor easy and there is going to be a lot of death and suffering and unfortunately, there is going to be a lot of post-COVID-19 morbidity and mortality down the line and way down the line, involving organ systems and biochemical processes which we have yet to understand due to inexperience. We aren't in the second inning of a nine inning game, we are in Spring Training...

[Solly Mack]

1. K&R

[stillcool]

2. I've heard the phrase..."a sea of uncertainty"

but these times are ridiculous. I need to look away, or I'll drown in it.

[BlancheSplanchnik]

5. Seriously.

At this point, I HAVE to just take it a day at a time. Focus on taking care of what I need to do to take care of myself, the fur kids and the house. And keep my job, lol.

If I start thinking of realities and probable outcomes.... uh, no. I need to not entertain too many agitas over things out there that I can’t control.

[thucythucy]

3. Dealing with this contagion would have been difficult enough

with a well-meaning and competent administration.

Instead we have the apex of ignorance, malevolence, and corruption.

I keep thinking of the Leonard Cohen line: "I've seen the future brother, it is murder."

[PCIntern]

4. It's the culmination of the RW nightmare

As scripted by one of those nihilist authors of the 50’s.

[Hekate]

10. Good observation. It was in my parents's house when I was a little kid -- I can't tell you how early

Last edited Wed May 13, 2020, 12:15 AM - Edit history (1)

... I was reading that kind of thing, but it was -- formative, in the sense that it echoes down through my years.

ETA: "It" meaning the type of dystopian book and author you refer to. Many Science Fiction and post-WWII novels were just full of existential angst and a dark world-view.

[Nitram]

6. "my Genetics textbook from 1972, useful only as a doorstop now, was considered the complete book of

knowledge of its day" I had already come to exactly the same conclusion about my genetics textbook from the same year. I went to a panel discussion about climate change at my college in 1974, and the scientific community was trying to decide whether gases and particles in the air would cause warming or cooling in the long run. We hadn't hear about plate tectonics, either. Maybe the geology students had wind of that, but it had only been taken seriously since about 1967. Our college physics classes were still on the atom as the smallest unit of matter. Quarks et all came later. Amazing the developments since then.

[Yavin4]

7. The are huge information gaps in our knowledge.

There are gaps that we cannot fill because of our limited knowledge, but there are those gaps which can be filled through better management and coordination of the crisis.

For example, more testing would fill in gaps about the spread and spikes in the spread.

If we can fill in the gaps where we can, that alone would save more lives.

[keithbvadu2]

8. A simple answer

?w=800&h=378

[intrepidity]

9. Excellent points. That complexity gives plenty of reason to not allow this virus to "burn through"

the population. RNA viruses mutate so rapidly that every infection gives them opportunity to acquire even worse properties. Although, there's a good argument to be made that, over time, viruses tend to become less lethal, since it's not in their interest to kill their hosts, at least not quickly. That this one allows hosts to be asymptomatic for some, most, or even all of the infection, is horrifically insideous. That this virus likely causes problems to the host long after the virus has moved on, and thus has no vested interest whatsoever, is just really the sort of dumb luck that rolling the dice too many times produces.

It's natural to anthropomorphize (although Trump really goes overboard) and assign intent where none exists ("this virus is very smart" bullshit). This virus is roughly as "smart" as most Republicans, which is to say not at all; it, like them, is wholly and completely opportunistic. It follows the path of least resistance always, because it follows the laws of physics, primarily. It's mutations are random, like throwing spaghetti at a wall to see what sticks (again, just like Republicans).

Point being, don't keep handing it more bowls of spaghetti. A vaccine is what we need. That our bodies often successfully mount a competent immune response is greatly encouraging: it means, for now, this virus still has vulnerabilities that we can exploit. Scientists the world over are working on this day and night, and they need all the support we can give. And part of that support, IMHO, is helping to ensure that the form of the virus that they are trying to immunize against is the one that is still the threat by the time they deliver the vaccine. And that means: that's right, withholding that spaghetti. Deny the virus your body as a host. Don't give it the opportunity to mutate.

Because eventually, just like with Republicans who handed us Trump in one of their spaghetti tosses, this virus may mutate into its own version of Trump. And nobody wants that.

[PCIntern]

11. Excellent analysis

Thoughtful and on point. Thank you!

[Cassidy]

12. Scientists are looking for a vaccine as a solution to this novel coronavirus.

A good vaccine will predominantly resolve the problem as vaccines protect humans from many other easily communicable and potentially deadly viruses (i.e. measles).

A few more points:

No text book is cutting edge information. For one thing, all that detail would not fit. For another, it has to be synthesized appropriately for the intended audience, including for a college audience. Most importantly, it is the nature of the scientific process to increase understanding. Details become clear. Misconceptions are revealed and corrected.

The vast majority of mutations are neutral or deleterious, .i.e. they would result in a less "effective" virus. Over time, a novel virus in a novel host generally evolves to be less lethal. When it kills the host, it is a dead-end for the virus. To optimize reproduction, killing the host is a bad move. Clearly we can't wait for that to happen. The point here is that it is unlikely the virus will become more deadly than it already is.

Finally, many scientist have been working on this problem, anticipating this problem, for decades. If they work in government and they speak out, they are ignored, they are sent to other places to do busy work, or they are fired. At least I don't know of any that have been thrown out of windows, as in Russia, or disappeared, as in China.

The only reason we are currently in such a chaotic mess is entirely due to the imbeciles running the federal government (President and Senate). I shudder at the thought of so many dead, so many who will yet die before competent Democratic leaders finally get the truck in a position to pull us out of the most recent ditch the Republicans drove us into. Trump's people are even beginning to turn on him. Now that their miserable protests have spread the virus to their hometowns, some of them will pay a serious price for their stupidity. They may not remember past next April, but we will all still be experiencing this invisible terror in November.

The scientists can be listened to. They can be re-hired and re-assigned to their appropriate positions and given the tools they need. The companies can be made to ensure the safety of employees and forced to help with the solutions. I agree that you are right to expect future morbidity and mortality, SARS-CoV-2 is a terrible foe, but the primary focus now has to be a vaccine. It will not be simple or easy, but it can happen.

If we make it happen.

[PCIntern]

15. Agreed in general,

But the Point I made about the textbook is this: many of the fundamental truths elucidated in this particular textbook are and have proven to be patently false. I was not just discussing the breadth and depth of a college science textbook, but I was simply stating that Many of the premises upon which upon much of the science was based were negated by further research. This is the natural order of things of course, and I understand it fully. It is Fascinating however, that if you don’t keep up in detail with a given discipline do you not only fall behind, but you wind up often being under total misapprehension as to what the facts are even at the most simplistic level.

[GoneOffShore]

13. Thank you for your analysis. It is on point.

One of the people who has been a researcher in the field of infectious diseases is recovering from Covid-19 and was interviewed. 'Finally, a virus got me.'

Here is one of his statements that you echoed: 'The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more questions arise. We are learning while we are sailing. That’s why I get so annoyed by the many commentators on the sidelines who, without much insight, criticize the scientists and policymakers trying hard to get the epidemic under control. That’s very unfair.'

Thanks for you thoughts and stay safe.

[PCIntern]

14. You're welcome and stay safe and

Keep the Faith!

[Hugin]

16. Decades of the almost universal active belittling of basic research and those who pursue it...

as boring. In favor of the sure fire, profitable, and quick fixes required by the growth-is-all Wall Street mentality have led us here.

Modern society has been conditioned to have a pathological fear of the null-hypothesis. Not everything has to lead to a whiz-bang block-buster product. In fact, in reality it rarely does. But! Something has been learned and those who have looked (successfully or not) should be celebrated, rewarded, and encouraged.

Instead, we get Elon Musk and Old Yeller.

The real world is not like an hour long TV show at the end of which a solution will magically appear to solve everything before next week's episode. The real world requires hard work, education, team work, compromise, sacrifice, intelligence, experience, and above all time for solutions to be found.

[PCIntern]

17. "It's people like you what cause unrest""

How dare you promote reality?

[Hugin]

19. You started it, Doc.

We have lots of toys, but, no wisdom.

[kentuck]

18. Thanks for the bright forecast.

People probably do need to look at this virus much more seriously than they have up to now?

It is a complex virus. It kills more old people because old people are weaker.

Perhaps the best we can hope for is to ride it out and hope our bodies develop some sort of anti-body over time?

From what I have read, it is so complex that it affects many parts of the body, from the brain to the toes?

To rush into this battle headlong may not be a wise idea at this time?

We should look at situations as realistically as possible.