General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsBetting markets see trump winning
https://www.axios.com/2020-investors-predict-trump-victory-2158c84e-9179-4c17-ad34-f91ffcb508b5.htmlWant a depressing read?
Want to bet against trump and make some money?
The money is on Trump
The big picture: Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a sizable lead in most national and individual swing state polls but money managers expect Trump to retake the White House in November.
In a late April survey of U.S.-based investors with at least $1 million of assets, UBS found that 53% said they planned to vote for Biden.
But 52% think Trump will win.
The intrigue: The world's most popular betting destinations show Trump as the clear favorite.
The RealClearPolitics average of betting websites gives the advantage to Trump with an average spread of 8.2 as of Sunday night.
Casino sportsbooks are paying around $83 for winning bets on Trump versus $135 for winning bets on Biden, making Biden the unequivocal underdog, Bovada shows.
What we're hearing: The expectation for Trump to triumph seems to largely reflect optimism about the economy once various state and local lockdown orders end, economists say.
"We cant expect that the economy is going to be in very good shape, although the trajectory ought to be pretty positive by November," Steve Skancke, a former Treasury Department and Council on Economic Affairs official in the Carter and Reagan administrations, tells Axios.
As November approaches, it's "more than likely were going to see a positive stock market and there will be positive job growth," says Skancke, now chief economic advisor at wealth manager Keel Point.
Between the lines: "The wildcard obviously is the virus and the [potential] vaccine," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Investor Service, tells Axios.
more at the link...........
https://www.axios.com/2020-investors-predict-trump-victory-2158c84e-9179-4c17-ad34-f91ffcb508b5.html
tman
(983 posts)I'm no more worried than I was 1 year ago.
It will be a close but winnable race. Joe is the slight favorite IMHO.
GeorgeGist
(25,322 posts)Wouldn't try to rig the thing would they? More than just s**** and giggles.
machoneman
(4,007 posts)Doodley
(9,119 posts)be blamed for Coronavirus deaths. Plus Trump will cheat and have the help of foreign players to help him win.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)world wide wally
(21,754 posts)PCIntern
(25,576 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)shockey80
(4,379 posts)Nobody can predict with certainty what this virus will do. To believe the economy is somehow going to be in good shape six months from now is flat out crazy.
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)The help to the people is over and the pain will be immense and unbearable.
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)Trump somehow managed to convince clueless people the economy was booming prior to this.
superpatriotman
(6,252 posts)Makes me want to jump off a bridge
Bayard
(22,128 posts)The virus is not leaving in 6 mo., and the economy and jobs will not come roaring back by then either.
Vogon_Glory
(9,127 posts)approaches. The 2008 recession sank the Rethuglies chances, despite the right-wingers wet dreams, the COVID virus isnt going away, and Donnies Insane Clown Posse will have ample opportunities to botch hurricane relief responses.
treestar
(82,383 posts)This is indeed stupid.
cbdo2007
(9,213 posts)lame54
(35,315 posts)So they think Trump's got it - ok - could happen
But their reasoning?
Economic recovery? - bullshit
If Trump wins it's because he(they) cheated successfully
gratuitous
(82,849 posts)I'd say this isn't the smart money talking, but rather the wishful thinking money.
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)"If I click my heels together three times then this will all go away and life will return to what it was like 3 months ago."
No, sweetheart, that ain't how it works.
Happy Hoosier
(7,375 posts)To put it bluntly,40%+ of the American public is malignant.
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)A HERETIC I AM
(24,376 posts)I just have a feeling, and yes, just a feeling, that it will be a landslide for the Democratic Party in November.
I just think that a substantial number of people who dont typically vote will come out.
Not just substantial, but come out in droves.
The American People by and large dont put up with too much bullshit. They just dont. Trump had ten million more people vote AGAINST him than voted for him.
People seem to forget that point. It wasnt that HRC beat him by 3 million, its that a further seven million wanted someone OTHER THAN Trump.
Those people and then some will come out. I just have a sneaking suspicion.
No economist worth the paper his degree is printed on would suggest everything will be well on the mend by November.
It just aint gonna go down like that.
Could he win? Sure. Of course he could. Americans are fucking stupid in many ways.
But so many of them dont bother to vote, that if only a small fraction of those folks come on out and vote in November.....hes fucking doomed, right along with the rest of the Republicans in power.
And then, he gets to fly back to New York on Inauguration Day and get promptly arrested by US Marshalls acting at the behest of the SDNY.
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)In fact he may high tail it to Russia and never set foot in the US again.
GoCubsGo
(32,086 posts)actual odds and betting odds.
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)He kicked people off health insurance and food stamps. How many people are working two or more jobs to make ends meet. The tariffs raised the price of goods.
There's also the problem of all the dead people. They aren't abstractions. As others have pointed out, it won't be long before almost everyone in the country either knows someone, or knows someone who knows someone, who has died or forever been changed by contracting this virus. And this president didn't care.
Can that just be forgotten because a stock market not that many Americans invest in rises?
William Seger
(10,779 posts)I still think my "investment" is safe.
safeinOhio
(32,714 posts)against Mike Tyson.