New polling data show Trump faltering in key swing states--here's why

[applegrove]

New polling data show Trump faltering in key swing states—here’s why

William A. Galston at Brookings
.Friday, May 8, 2020

FIXGOV

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/05/08/new-polling-data-show-trump-faltering-in-key-swing-states-heres-why/

"SNIP.....


After moving modestly upward in March, approval of his handling of the pandemic has fallen back to where it was when the crisis began, as has his overall job approval. The president trails his challenger, former vice president Joe Biden, by more than five points in the national polls. A recent survey finds that the president has lost more ground  in swing states than in either solid Republican or solid Democratic states. It is not surprising, then, that Biden now leads in five of the six key battlegrounds—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, and Arizona—and is tied with the president in North Carolina. Moreover, states that should be in the incumbent’s column by comfortable margins—Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia—are surprisingly competitive.

.....

Some portions of this coalition (2016 trump coalition)—white evangelical Protestants and white men with less than a college education—are rock-solid. But there is evidence that other groups are beginning to waver. For example, President Trump defeated Hillary Clinton among voters 65 and older by 7 points, 52-45 percent, in 2016. In the latest NBC/WSJ poll, by contrast, Biden led Trump by 9 points, 52-43. Because seniors vote at a higher rate than any other age cohort, the shift in this group alone could be enough to sink the president’s prospects in closely contested states.

As Trump pushes to reopen the economy, seniors, who overwhelmingly give priority to defeating the coronavirus over getting back to work, are registering their disapproval. As commentators have noted, the pandemic has driven a wedge between retirees and less educated middle-age workers, who cannot work remotely and depend on a regular paycheck. The president needs to retain the support of both these groups, but he is finding it hard to please one without antagonizing the other.

Trump’s troubles do not end here. Continuing a trend first evident in the 2018 midterm elections, he is losing ground among white working-class women, who supported him by a 27-point margin in 2016. Because opinion among college-educated voters has hardened against the president since he took office, he needs strong majority support among the entire white working class to prevail. Working-class men will not be enough; he must get the votes of their spouses and daughters as well.

......SNIP"

[MyOwnPeace]

1. And out of all of the groups..............

"Working-class men will not be enough; he must get the votes of their spouses and daughters as well."

THAT is the group that I cannot understand!

How COULD they vote for that hog?

[applegrove]

3. Because he has taken everything from them including better wages.

So he gives them vital enforcer jobs in his MAGA cult and suddenly they have meaning in their lives. They live with the imposed poverty that way. Everyone who follows Trump has an enforcer role. They enforce at demonstrations, by buying guns and hats, they enforce by retweeting on facebook. Biden needs to make sure all his supporters feel vital in responce. That they have rituals and roles that give meaning.

[Yavin4]

10. They vote for him because they are him.

They believe in the same things that he does.

[at140]

2. How many more months to go before election day?

6 months is eternity in politics. It could get much worse for Trump byNovember.

[murielm99]

4. Think how much worse it will get

for all of us by November. I don't think we can take much more.

[OAITW r.2.0]

5. No doubt.

He'll look back and wistfully think Americans liked him back now.

[at140]

6. I am going to record his concession speech

and listen to it every time I am feeling a bit down.

[SoonerPride]

11. Concession speech? You must be joking.

He will never concede.

He will whine.
He will say it was rigged

He will never ever concede.

Ever.

[progree]

7. Smashed Reagan's record high unemployment rate. Worst rate since 1948

when that data series begins. Ditto, worst rates for employment-to-population ratio since 1948 when that data series begins.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1017&pid=581487

[brush]

8. The death total is going to get a whole lot worse.

Going from a very conservative estimate of 2000 deaths a day, and often times approaching 3000 a day, with 176 days to the election, added to the already 80,000 dead, by Nov. 3, 2020 there will be 432,000 dead on trump's hands.

And that, I repeat, is a conservative estimate. And with no vaccine and idiot repug governors and moronic trump opening up the economy all over the place, that figure will keep jumping until there is a vaccine in a year or so—add 365 x 2000 a day (730,000) to the 432,000 already calculated and we get 1,143,000 conservatively before a vaccine.

This is far from over. I'm staying my behind inside.

[applegrove]

9. I think i'll start praying to my ancestors and nature on a regular basis. That

is too sad.

[maxrandb]

12. White Working Class Women supported Donnie Dollhands by a 27 Point Margin in 2016?

White Working Class Women supported Donnie Dollhands by a 27 Point Margin in 2016?????!!!!!!

WHITE WORKING CLASS WOMEN SUPPORTED DONNIE DOLLHANDS BY A 27 POINT MARGIN IN 2016?

[ProfessorGAC]

13. I'll Add In!

WHITE WORKING CLASS WOMEN SUPPORTED DONNIE DOLLHANDS BY A 27 POINT MARGIN IN 2016?
Really? Probably about fetuses.