Broken polls

[struggle4progress]

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN
Updated 8:05 PM ET, Sun May 3, 2020

... the question of who people thought would win had actually been a pretty good predictor. One study even determined that from 1988 to 2012, asking people who they believed would win was more accurate than polls of voter preference of who they wanted to win.

Voters, though, thought that Clinton would beat Trump in 2016. Of course, she did not.

Now, it seems Americans have probably overreacted to the 2016 result. They don't trust the numbers that are in front of them. Americans think the polls are underestimating Republicans.

You can see this really well by looking not just at the 2020 polls, but the 2018 polling as well. Gallup asked Americans just before that election whether they thought Democrats or Republicans would control the US House after the election. By a 50% to 44% margin, they said Republicans. This came even as Democrats were clear favorites in pretty much every forecast and when that same Gallup poll showed Democrats with an 11-point lead on the generic congressional ballot ...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/03/politics/trump-polling/index.html

[abqtommy]

1. I trashed this thread due to this false statement in the original op:

"Voters, though, thought that Clinton would beat Trump in 2016. Of course, she did not."

We know that in 2016 Hillary Clinton DID beat tRUMP in the vote count. It was the ratfucking that
"won" for tRUMP and the ratfucking continues here in 2020...

[scarletlib]

2. I would point out that Hilary did win the popular vote.

Only lost in the archaic Electoral College.

[Chainfire]

4. The same archaic

Electoral College that we are now counting on to defeat Trump in what current polling suggests is a nearly even split of approval or disapproval at this time? That is the reason we keep focusing on swing states.

Yep, it is ironic isn't it?

[getagrip_already]

3. I would also point out that gallop is not a pollster - they are a GOP marketing firm... n/t