The respected, legit model predictors of number of infections/deaths made a horrifying mistake.

[shockey80]

They left Trump, Republican politicians and Trump voters out of their assumptions. They predicted 50,000, 60,000 deaths by August. Now they are predicting 134,000 deaths by August because they have recognized their mistake. I and other people here at DU predicted over a month ago there would be 120,000 deaths by June 1st, from our fucking couches.

Unbelievable!

[Iliyah]

1. Yep . ..

Plus, red states have been and still are not giving correct counts on both infections and deaths. Example: Florida. So those numbers for both may be off by thousands.

[Squinch]

2. Only one model was predicting 60K deaths. IMHE. It's not respected.

Epidemiologists are on record as saying it's methods are bizarre. Because it includes no epidemiological information.

Which is wacky.

[shockey80]

4. I do not believe that is correct.

Trump, Fauci, went with the University of Washington model predictions. Maddow talked about it on her show last night. They assumed Trump, Republicans would do the right thing when it came to opening up the country. It was an honest, really dumb mistake.

[SoonerPride]

5. The IHME and University of Washington model is the same thing

U Wa makes the IHME model

[shockey80]

8. If true, Fauci was using that model.

Fauci has always said models are based on assumptions. Smart people did not assume that Trump, Republican governors, Trump voters would do the wrong thing. They assumed they would act normal. That was dumb.

[shockey80]

3. Stupid has become the number one value of the American people.

[ProfessorGAC]

6. The Numbers Are Tricky To Follow

The 60k, then 66, then 73k numbers were publicizing the floor of the model.
The 135,000 now promoted is the median of the model.
The floor went up to around 99,000. Still a big jump, but not 90%.
The way the numbers are publicized makes it really difficult to keep up with what they're doing.
BTW: the ceiling of the model is now about 240,000.

[Voltaire2]

7. the assumption of a coordinated controlled metrics based

national pandemic policy was a huge mistake. Understandable, but huge. Substituting 'idiot narcissistic clown based policy' would have substantially improved the model.

[stopdiggin]

9. sorry. I'm just not buying that there were ANY reasonable

scientific based estimates for 60 thousand .. as far back as 2, 3 - 4 weeks ago.
(and Dr Fauci may be a much admired figure .. but, when this is all over, he is going to have a lot to answer for.)

[stopdiggin]

10. correction. the IMHE modeling is/was done by real scientists.

But when your model is consistently giving not just bad, but embarrassingly bad, results ... Then knowledgeable people tend to turn away from your efforts. Try to find an epidemiologist (outside the WH) that is still giving any weight to these numbers.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/5/2/21241261/coronavirus-modeling-us-deaths-ihme-pandemic