How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take? (NYT 4/30/20)

[SoonerPride]

Oh boy. This is a long and very disheartening piece. It sure seems like it’ll be later rather than sooner. A very sobering read indeed.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html?referringSource=articleShare

A vaccine would be the ultimate weapon against the coronavirus and the best route back to normal life. Officials like Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the top infectious disease expert on the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force, estimate a vaccine could arrive in at least 12 to 18 months.

The grim truth behind this rosy forecast is that a vaccine probably won’t arrive any time soon. Clinical trials almost never succeed. We’ve never released a coronavirus vaccine for humans before. Our record for developing an entirely new vaccine is at least four years — more time than the public or the economy can tolerate social-distancing orders.

But if there was any time to fast-track a vaccine, it is now. So Times Opinion asked vaccine experts how we could condense the timeline and get a vaccine in the next few months instead of years.

Here’s how we might achieve the impossible.

[DrToast]

1. So much conflicting info

🤷🏻?♂️

[kairos12]

2. The virus will be with us for the foreseeable future. Plan accordingly.

[gibraltar72]

3. Just took a poll

They started the question with yesterday some promising news. Then asked how long people thought it would be before a very effective treatment or a vaccine. Over 50% said seven to twelve months. It seems people ain't buyin what Trump is selling.

[SoonerPride]

4. Even the public saying 7-12 months is most likely mistaken

Think 7-12 years.

At best.

[gibraltar72]

6. Yeah I just think it shows people know it isn't gonna blow out of here.

It's hard to think we have to live like this. But facts is facts.

[Aristus]

5. So that means 18 months and one day before someone declines the vaccine out of 'concern'.

They have plenty of time to think up a cause for said 'concern'.

1. "Do we really know what's in the vaccine? DO WE???"

2. "Did you read the package insert?"

3. "Jenny McCarthy says it causes autism."

4. "It's just a Big Government giveaway to Big Pharma."

5. "I'd prefer to get the natural immunity."

6. "Well, you know, there's really no evidence that etc. etc. etc...."

7. "I just don't want to..."



I don't mind doing the heavy-lifting for the anti-vaxxers. It saves time...

[Baclava]

7. What if vaccines only work 30% of the time like flu shots? Or like SARS, vaccines never worked

[SoonerPride]

8. That is what I fear. We may be living with this plague for decades.

Immunity may not exist or be short-lived.

Vaccines may only help slightly.

There may be treatments to reduce morbidity and symptoms which may make it less lethal, but we may have this with us for a long, long time.

These rosy forecasts are nice, and I hope that they are right and we get a silver bullet in 12 months, but probably more likely unrealistic.

[Baclava]

9. Yeah, we're basing a lot of hope on a vaccine, the one for SARS never made it past animal testing