Just heard on CNN Don Lemon report. Dr. Murray from the U of W said they increased their

[doc03]

death toll from COVID 19 to 74,000. He said part of the reason for the increase was states opening up
to soon being factored in.

[Iliyah]

1. USA?

[Bucky]

5. We were never going to keep to the 60,000 mortality projection

Too many people are going out too early, not just the protesters.

But more importantly, the testing and even death certificates aren't catching all the covid-19 cases. Plus these models only account for this wave of the pandemic. Just about every epidemiologist is now saying we're going to see it back in the fall.

[DanieRains]

2. 74,000 Will Be In 10 Days

No fat lady singing anywhere around here.

Just corpses as far as the eye can see.

[jimfields33]

6. So far tonight we have zero deaths reported

That’s a first during all of this. Worldometer.com. I hope it continues..

[Bucky]

10. That's because they count by Greenwich mean Time.

."Today" just started a couple of hours ago and they haven't posted their real time mortality count.

But April 27 by their reckoning is the second day in a row where deaths were back below 1500 a day, meaning the country as a whole has passed the apex of the curve.

April 27 (GMT)
23196 new cases and 1384 new deaths

[crickets]

13. The apex of this curve, maybe.

Given the opening up, there will be another.

[Bucky]

15. From April 7 to April 25, 15 of 19 days saw 2000+ covid19 deaths

That was the peak. We should be on a natural decline roughly parallel to the ramp up from March 1 to April 16 (the middlepoint of the arc).

A rough estimate would double cases and deaths from that middle point. If that's correct then we will see just a hair below 70,000 deaths from a total of 1,360,000 cases. That's just a ballpark estimate, and leaves off unreported cases. The estimates I've heard for that is anywhere from 20% to 50% undercount of active covid-19 cases and a 5-15% undercount of deaths by the pandemic.

An epidemiology street survey study in New York came away with an estimated 15% of the state population and 21% of the city's population being positive for the coronavirus itself, regardless of symptom status, at the national peak day of the pandemic.

Of course it remains to be seen whether the protests and defiance actions beginning on Easter Sunday will extend or put a little bump in the decline.

[LuckyCharms]

3. Would you expand on this please? Thanks.

[doc03]

8. I added it to the op he said one reason factored in was some states opening up

too early.

[SoonerPride]

4. Their model is crap

We will be at 100,000 by July 1st

If not sooner

[Make7]

7. IHME: 74,073 COVID-19 deaths projected by August 4, 2020

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[doc03]

9. Excellent that corresponds with what the Dr. from UW said.

[Make7]

11. That is Covid-19 model from the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

That is the model they would be discussing on CNN.

[doc03]

12. Yes it was Dr. Murray Director from U of W nt

[spanone]

14. that's low-balling it.

[Bucky]

16. I've been following the University of Washington study since February

Their numbers are pretty consistently on target, not low-balls

[SoonerPride]

17. How do you figure that?

They predicted 60,000 dead by August 4th

We will have that before May 1st

Their model is crap

[Bucky]

18. They adjusted their predictions upward. Now they're saying 74,000

My math was just based on the infection curve being symmetrical, which I understand to be the norm among pandemics. But by doing that, I came up with 70,000.

Their model is saying 74,000, so little bit bigger than my rougher estimate. Probably theirs is based on those states in more diffused locations having later apexes, in part a result of people resisting the quarantine orders.

Again, looks like they're making reasonable adjustments and predictions.

Near as I can see, they adjust their models based on new data coming in, like any scientist in the tricky business of making forecasts. The need to adjust the mortality rate upward is a measurement of the bad management of the outbreak crisis.

[FightingIrish]

19. Trump reset the bar to 200,000 dead..

Anything below that is a great job.