New stats out for Sweden, coronavirus deaths, 87% are 70yo and up, 95% 60yo and up

[Celerity]

this is straight from Folkhälsomyndigheten, the official Health agency

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

In the entire country, there have been 113 deaths under the age of 60, that is for the entire population under 60

under 40yo there have been 13 deaths total, for all age groups under 40

under 30yo, 5 deaths total, that is for all age groups under 30

under 20yo, zero deaths total (and almost all our schools under high school level have been open the whole time)


I am born in 1996, as is my wife. We have over 20 friends, all under 40, who have tested positive for antibodies, all but 4 had no idea they were even exposed, they had no symptoms, and most of them were tested over 2 or 3 weeks ago. The 4 who had symptoms said it was extremely mild. The 2 most paranoid people (FAR beyond us) we know just tested positive for antibodies and have broken self-isolation.

We are getting tested for antibodies on Monday, and if positive, we too are breaking self isolation. I know of less than ten people around our ages who are still self-isolating. We have no close friends here (other than some professors and my uni is closed, plus some co-workers, and my job is still remote for now) over 40. We have personally been in lockdown for over 2 months and enough is enough if we have the antibodies. If we are antibody positive, then self-isolation is useless anyway, when almost no one here under 60, 70 years old is doing it (other than high risk people with pre-existing conditions) and if we were exposed anyway (which is entirely possible no matter how careful you are, short of living on boat or on an island or in a hyper-remote location with zero outside contact or in level 4 type isolation chamber.) then it was useless in terms of avoiding exposure, and useless because, as stated before, no one is really doing it anyway.

avlidna means deaths

[captain queeg]

1. This is why we need widespread testing

It’s likely they’ll find out there are a lot more immune people out there. I’m older so I’ll remain vigilant but younger people who have developed immunity want to get back to work, can’t blame them. Still there’s be some precautions because it’s not just whether you get infected it’s when. If all restrictions are dropped we could see the hospitals flooded and people dying from other things for lack of care.

[The Magistrate]

2. Two Questions, Ma'am

What are the criteria employed for determining death owes to covid-19 infection? If only persons displaying serious symptoms before death were counted, results would be different than if postmortem tests were conducted for deaths for things like apparent stroke or heart failure.

Has anyone done statistical comparison of how many have died in total, as opposed to how many would normally be expected to have died over the last few months? This has seemed, to some researchers, to show in some countries and locales a good many more likely died of the contagion than official figures indicate.

Not intending to argue, mind, but genuinely curious. You seem to be someone who can provide the answers.

[Celerity]

10. All who go into a hospital are tested as soon as they go into intensive care, thus are counted as

COVID-19 deaths if they die (and are positive as explained below) All who die of suspected COVID-19 outside of a hospital setting are posthumously tested.

If the person is/was positive

via either one or both of the 2 following criteria

Minst ett av följande kriterier:

Nukleinsyrepåvisning av SARS-betacoronagruppen-specifikt genfragment

Isolering av SARS-CoV-2

ie

At least one of the following criteria:

Nucleic Acid Detection of SARS-Betacorona Group-Specific Gene Fragment (Polymerase chain reaction ie. PCR test)

and/or

Isolation of SARS-CoV-2 (via culture tests)

then it is counted as a COVID-19 death (that broad definition is one of the reasons are numbers are high) although our testing of non critical cases has been very poor, but is now ramping up. That poor testing for non lethal cases is why our ratio is so high (confirmed cases versus deaths.)

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/

The statistics of deceased persons are based on data reported so far to the Public Health Agency, differences with the regional reporting. The statistics show the number of people with confirmed covid-19 who have died, regardless of the cause of death. The time series with the number of deceased per day contains only those cases where the date of the death is known, therefore the total number of deceased can differ from the number reported in the time series.

snip



As for total deaths (all causes per day) here are some numbers from Statistics Sweden, the official government agency (total deaths and broken down partially age group)

https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/population/population-composition/population-statistics/pong/tables-and-graphs/preliminary-statistics-on-deaths/







Statistics Sweden to publish preliminary statistics on deaths in Sweden
2020-04-07 | Press releases


https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/news-and-press-releases/statistics-sweden-to-publish-preliminary-statistics-on-deaths-in-sweden/

Statistics Sweden is handling a lot questions on the number of deaths in Sweden related to the effects of the novel coronavirus. The agency will therefore publish preliminary statistics on deaths to provide a snapshot picture of developments and to facilitate comparison with previous years.

“The statistics on deaths show that the number of deaths per year may vary significantly from year to year,” explains Tomas Johansson at the Population and Welfare Department at Statistics Sweden. In 2019, there were fewer than 89 000 deaths, which was the lowest number of deaths in a single year since 1977. In 2018, when exceptionally many people died from the influenza, there were more than 92 000 deaths in Sweden.

The tables that will be updated every week present the number of deaths per day in the period 2015-2020.

The statistics for 2020 are based on information submitted by the Swedish Tax Agency to Statistics Sweden up to and including 3 April 2020. This information should be regarded as raw data and will be adjusted as new information is received, since there is a delay in the reporting, in particular for the days just before publication. Statistics from two weeks ago are not expected to change substantially. Previous years’ statistics are based on Statistics Sweden’s final observation register.

These statistics are also shown by region and municipality and distributed by sex and age.

[The Magistrate]

11. Thank You, Ma'am

I appreciate your taking the time to provide this information.

Be well, and stay safe!

[Celerity]

13. yw Sir, and you too!

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. So Bestefar og Bestemor are pretty much out of luck, then?

I thought the whole point of this approach was to protect the vulnerable old people but Sweden's stats for that age group seem even worse than ours. Were these deaths mostly in care homes?

[Celerity]

8. farfar och mormor (you used Norwegian)

Yes, most have been in the elderly care homes.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

9. There have been a lot of deaths in care homes here,

and some state governments (Texas in particular) seem to be perfectly happy to sacrifice the elderly to save the economy, but we also seem to have a somewhat higher percentage of younger people who have become ill or died. Maybe it's just the difference in the overall demographic spread but it's kind of curious.

(I used Norwegian because I don't know Swedish but I figured it was close enough!)

[DFW]

30. It usually is close enough

Those of us who learned Swedish as their first Scandinavian language quickly learned to accept the minor difference when we got to traveling a lot in Scandinavia. I rarely have to ask Norwegian colleagues to explain anything to me when we are speaking. Forcing someone to get used to Danish pronunciation is, however, something usually only reserved for people convicted of violent felonies.

[FreeState]

16. Farfar or mormor er norsk men...

Farfar = dads Dad
Mormor = moms mom
Farmor = dads mom
Morfar = moms dad

Bestefar = gradfather
Bestemor = grandmother
Besteforeldre = grandparents

Er det ikke sammen på svensk?

[Celerity]

18. Ja

svenska är situationellt specifika när det gäller kön

There has been a debate for years over hen, the gender-neutral neologism for hon (her) and han (him)

[DFW]

26. Nej, det er det ikke

I have never heard the expressions "bästafar, bästamor, or bästaföreldrar" used in Sweden, either when there, or in their literature.

[Bad Thoughts]

4. And how do you respond to the uncertainty about reinfection and dormancy?

These possibilities have not been ruled out, and th WHO has warned that antibody test, whether or not they are currently effective, are not tickets out of isolation.

[Celerity]

7. We are also (in conjunction) getting a PCR test. If that is negative & the antibody test is positive

that will be good enough for us, especially giving the staggeringly low death rates in our age cohorts. We are in superb physical shape, have zero underly health conditions, and are female. At some point (especially given the fact almost no one here is self isolating anyway unless they are elderly or have pre-existing complications) it has to end, at least for us. My wife really needs to get back to her job, which involves a lot of social interaction, and my firm that I consult for is opening back its offices for people who have been tested on May 4th.

[jberryhill]

5. A couple of weeks ago, you were highly critical of Sweden's approach

But Sweden has had fewer deaths per capita than Netherlands, UK, Spain, France or Italy, although it has had more than the US.

In light of your previous comments, how do you account for that?

[Celerity]

6. Our elderly homes have borne the huge brunt of the deaths, the failure of the government lies

mainly there, especially in Stockholms län (county). The other cohort most hit have been in the poorest immigrant/refugee heavy suburbs, especially in Stockholm, Göteborg (Gothenburg), and Malmö. They have not been following the voluntary but mandated social distancing rules and their density in terms of living together is much higher than the population at large.

We are past the point where those genies can be put back into the bottle I fear. We are starting a huge antibody testing regime, so that will let us know how close we are in terms of viral penetration of the population. I see no way that shutting it all down now will do much IF the percentage of people exposed is as high as it seems to be. Only time will tell.

[Meowmee]

12. So it is ok to just let older people and vulnerable die😔 👎🏻

I believe Sweden had a higher death rate overall than some other European countries per capita.

[Indykatie]

14. I Think Sweden's Mortality Demographics for The CV-19 are Impacted by Their Healthier Population

We know co-morbid conditions like diabetes, heart disease and respiratory conditions adds to the severity of the corona virus. Since those conditions are more common in the US across all age groups it might explain why we have more deaths that are younger than 70.

[Meowmee]

15. My point was though from what I read they had as high or a higher death toll as other european

Countries. Their decision to just let people die is not ok. That is what dump and gop did at first basically until governors started lockdowns etc. In Italy people are banding together to sue the government and others for the unnecessary death of their loved ones who in many cases were denied med treatment.

People seem to think they are safe if you don’t have one of the supposed risk factors and or if you are younger. You aren’t. You can still get very sick, we have seen so many cases like that.

My doc told me to wait on an antibody test because they aren't good enough yet. I have covid and double pneumonia right now but had a false neg test. I read an article in nyt about the various antibody tests, only three were good and only one produced a 99% no false pos test. So having that test may give people a sense of safety which isn’t valid. Assuming having covid19 does give you some level of immunity for a while at least. I suppose if you were exposed but asymptomatic or mildly ill you may never become seriously ill if exposed again but we don’t know at this stage.

[Skittles]

20. perhaps also because they have better access to healthcare

in America, lots of people are uninsured or under-insured, which keeps them from going to the doctor

[Meowmee]

31. I forgot to answer this part, the deaths and severe cases that have occurred here in younger people

Have not all been linked to any underlying disease. I also checked on health regarding obesity at least in Sweden and it seems currently that 51% or so of the population > 20 is considered to be overweight and 17% of that I think is obese. So I would not assume everyone there is healthier than here. According to this document anyway.

http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/243327/Sweden-WHO-Country-Profile.pdf

[GulfCoast66]

17. The US is paying a huge price of neglecting the health of our people for 70 years.

Never been to Sweden but everywhere I go in Europe I’m struck by how healthy the people look. Very few fat people at all although I hear that not true in the U.K. Plus every citizen has good healthcare which they use. And their not over run with superstitious religious nuts. Even the number of smokers which Europeans are known for here seem much less than when I first went 25 years ago. But that just my observation so may not be true. We do know obesity and it’s associated conditions are a huge risk factor for this virus. And what, half of all Americans are Obese?

[Celerity]

19. Yes, you are correct overall.

I am in a good position to confirm this as I have lived in all 3 places. The UK is the fattest main EU country, it has gotten out of hand. Only Mexico and the US are worse IMHO.

We are having some medical divergence from the other Nordics over the last 20-25 years, and especially the past 15, 17 due to our much higher intake of refugees versus the othet Nordics. We (Sweden) have taken in, over the past 25 or so years (the vast majority from 2003 to 2017), the US equivalent of 50 million plus refugees. Malmö, the 3rd biggest city (after Stockholm and Göteborg aka Gothenburg) is the largest city in the EU that is now majority foreign born or 2nd generation non western European descent.

The ethnic Swedes (I am half) are FAR more physically active overall than the US/UK populace as a whole. There also, still (albeit it is not as all pervasive as say just 30 or 40 years ago) is a huge influence of thw concept of lagom here. It means 'not too much, not too little, just the right amount'. So no supersized buckets of soda large enough to double as pail to wash your car with. Lol. Also A LOT of greens and fruit. That said, we are (me not so much, my wife YES, but she is a qoekout freak like me so we stll are basically the same size and can share clothes) obsessed with godis ie. sweets, candy. But again, in very moderate portions. My baby boomer grandparents and my MIL especially (she never ine ti shy away from anything, lol) all say, however, that there are a lot more fat Swedes than even back in the 1980's and 70's.

It is nothing like many parts of the US and UK though. Lockdowns cannot be helping in regards to that I think.

[Steelrolled]

27. It seems to be part of our culture

The health risks associated with obesity are well know and publicized constantly, but it is a difficult addiction. And it is now passed from generation to generation.

I think the US have been more successful with the reduction of smoking, even though that is also a difficult addiction. Of course, one doesn't need to smoke to survive, and of course we can't put super high taxes on food.

[DFW]

21. A few interesting statistics, according to the chart

The most cases of sickness were in the 50-59 sage group, but their fatalities were minimal by comparison. And Skåne seems to have very few cases, despite its having the city of Malmö and being right across the bridge from Köpenhamn--even less than Jönköping or Örebro.

And--you have been in Sweden too long. "Jag är född" is "I was born" in English, not "I am born"

[Celerity]

22. lol, yes, I meant to say I am 1996 born, which, I do give you is such a Swedish way of saying it

when you ask most Swedes their birthdate, they simply say the year, lol

so you nailed me correctly

[DFW]

23. Full disclosure:

Last edited Mon Apr 27, 2020, 08:22 AM - Edit history (2)

Jag har läst svenska på universitetet i USA under två och halvt år. Jag har aldrig bott i Sverige, men jag har fortfarande kontakt med mina svenska vänner.

So, I still do catch things like that

[Celerity]

28. +1

[Steelrolled]

24. Thanks for the information.

And it sounds like potentially very good news.

Are you requested to take the various tests, or is it up to you?

[Celerity]

29. my job sorted it for us, we took the tests this morning, should know tomorrow or so

[Happy Hoosier]

25. So, as long as we are willing to sacrifice old people, we're good! Mostly. NT