A coronavirus wake-up call is coming to red America, complicating Trump's push to reopen

[babylonsister]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/24/1940066/-A-coronavirus-wake-up-call-is-coming-to-red-America-complicating-Trump-s-push-to-reopen

A coronavirus wake-up call is coming to red America, complicating Trump's push to reopen
Kerry Eleveld
Daily Kos Staff
Friday April 24, 2020 · 1:51 PM EDT


When several Republican governors initially refused to implement social distancing orders, they invoked a sort of red state exceptionalism. "South Dakota is not New York City," Gov. Kristi Noem quipped in early April. Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey agreed, asserting: "We are not California."

That sentiment also appears to have trickled down into more conservative-leaning regions of the country, particularly more rural and some suburban areas of the South and Midwest. But a new data analysis shows that areas of the country where the coronavirus was initially slow to spread are now experiencing a notable uptick in cases.

"There is a stereotypical view of the places in America that COVID-19 has affected most: they are broadly urban, comprised predominantly of racial minorities, and strongly vote Democratic," demographer and Brookings Institution senior fellow William Frey writes in a post on his new analysis. But during the first three weeks of April, Frey adds, "new counties showing a high prevalence of COVID-19 cases are more suburban, whiter, and voted more strongly for Donald Trump than counties the virus hit first."

Frey examined the counties with more than 100 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents and found the total number of those counties had increased nearly 12-fold over the last couple weeks, from 59 at the end of March to 717 by mid-April.

Initially, Frey notes, these high-prevalence coronavirus counties were "heavily concentrated" in the Northeast, especially around New York City. But from March 30 to April 5, the high-prevalence counties moved into the Midwest and the South. By April 6 to 12, the virus prevalence increased "dramatically, especially around Miami, Atlanta, Baltimore, Washington, D.C., and Memphis and Nashville, Tenn., as well as many smaller metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties." And in the Northeast and Midwest, the virus spread beyond the urban areas into more suburban areas and smaller metropolitan regions.

In essence, the high-prevalence areas are beginning to be spread more evenly between counties that voted for Hillary Clinton and Trump in 2016. As of March 29, voters in high-prevalence areas leaned strongly Democratic, with Clinton holding a 62%-34% advantage over Trump. But by April 13-19, voters in high-prevalence counties only favored Clinton over Trump by by 10 points, 52%-42%.

The change in political leanings of constituents in high coronavirus areas could pose political problems for Trump, particularly as he tries to ramp up his "reopening" effort. Frey told Washington Post columnist Greg Sargent that the perception of coronavirus mainly plaguing urban and Democratic areas of the country “underlies a lot of these protests that are going on.” Even though those anti-lockdown agitators represent only a fringe minority of the country, the sentiment they're feeding off of is the notion that "we're not like that," Frey noted.

But that perception could change rather quickly. The coronavirus, Frey said, is “coming to places where these protesters are probably living — far-out suburbs, small metropolitan areas, rural America.”

The darker areas below were show the counties that initially had a high prevalence of confirmed areas. The lighter areas depict the counties that have newly become high-prevalence areas.

[OAITW r.2.0]

1. Rural hospital systems, already in trouble financially, are not going to be able to cope

with a significant influx of cases.

[babylonsister]

2. Agreed. Just look at what's happening in Albany, GA. nt

[leftieNanner]

3. Especially in states that refused to expand Medicaid

Which is a big part of the reason these rural hospitals are in financial trouble. There are also large swaths of these red states that do not have a hospital at all for the same reason.

[OAITW r.2.0]

6. I am in such a place in Central ME.

Any sudden onslaught of COVID-19 would deliver you to a rural hospital location, 20 miles away. They might have beds, but not the staffing to handle a dozen patients. They'd have to move you to Central ME or Eastern ME MC (Waterville and Bangor, respectively.. Probably Bangor.)

I imagine this scenario will play out 100's of thousands of time within rural communities. That's why I am 98% isolated over the past 5 weeks.

Side note: made a grocery run today. Maybe 100 in the store. Wore a mask. Less then 50% used this minimal level of protection.

[leftieNanner]

7. All of it - Very Scary

We moved to Southern Oregon 11 years ago and it's a popular retirement spot. So we are in good shape with local hospitals. Our Governor locked us down pretty quickly so our cases have been very low. Still, with a high-elder population here, I see people in the store without masks.

Stay safe and take care of yourself.

[SWBTATTReg]

4. Ironic being that states that will suffer from lack of medical care will get hurt the worst (IMHO).

Because 'unprofitable' hospitals were being closed right and left in republican-leaning states). The profit mongers strike again.

What you have sown, you will reap, and sadly, it is happening now. The Grim Reaper is doing his dirty work as we speak.

You can't tell these people anything anyway (the protesters, the like minded people, etc.).

I'm sorry to see this happen, but look at how they reacted to the stay at home orders. Didn't listen. Still got out in public.

Now they got to pay the piper. I will save my sorrow for me and my own. Now-a-days, everyone has their own stories of sorrow, or soon will.

[liberalla]

5. Is this what all the PPE theft or redirection was about?

Drump will send the milítary, doctors, nurses, and all the equipment necessary for the red and rural areas. Those governors will get everything they need and then some.

[OAITW r.2.0]

8. It will be way too late.

Here's the problem with rural communities. It doesn't really matter where they are....North/South/East/West. It's the nature of rural communities to be insulated. That insulation requires constant reinforcement by the limited exposure they have with people outside their communities. Fox News has a pretty hard lock on this demographic. They repeat and recite those talking points and world view.

They are tribal and don't have a clue as to how to engage and learn with people that are not in their community. Sad, but true.