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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDixie in the crosshairs: The South is likely to have America's highest death rate from covid-19
It has unusually unhealthy residents and few ICU beds
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/25/the-south-is-likely-to-have-americas-highest-death-rate-from-covid-19
America does not face one covid-19 crisis, but rather dozens of different ones. A few places have been walloped; others remain unscathed. So far, sars-cov-2 has claimed most of its victims in areas where it has spread the fastest. Lockdowns have geographically contained most outbreaks. However, once social distancing is relaxed, the virus will accelerate its spread, and could infect a majority of Americans. If that happens, the places it hits hardest may not be those it struck first. Instead, the vulnerability of local populations will determine its death toll in each region.
Covid-19s true infection-fatality rate (ifr, the share of infected people who die) is unknown, because most carriers are not tested. However, testing is more common for people whose cases are bad enough to endanger their lives: in New York 67% of people with covid-19 on their death certificate had tested positive. If the share of people without grave symptoms who still get tested were similar everywhere, places with high case-fatality rates (cfrs)the death rate among people testing positivewould be likely to have high ifrs as well.
In fact, testing practices vary widely. And given two states with the same rate of infections and deaths, one that tests only the severely ill will report a higher cfr than will one that tests more broadly. However, within any given state, testing protocols are likely to be more uniform. As a result, we have built a model to identify the traits shared by counties with cfrs far above or below their own states averageand predict which places not yet ravaged by the virus will suffer most if it arrives in earnest. Some factors that affect viral spread also predict the cfr. It tends to be higher in cities than in rural areas, and lower where social distancing, as measured by traffic to workplaces and transit stations, is greater. One explanation is that health-care quality drops when caseloads surge. Places with few intensive-care-unit (icu) beds also have high cfrs, bolstering this hypothesis.
However, demography is just as important. Places with older residents and more diabetes, heart disease and smoking have higher cfrs. Race and income also play a role. Counties with lots of poor or black people tend to have more health problems, less social distancing and fewer icu beds. Yet cfrs in such areas are even higher than you would expect from these factors alone. Together, these variables leave a geographic footprint. If covid-19 does infect most Americans, the highest death rates will probably not be in coastal citieswhose density is offset by young, healthy, well-off populations and good hospitalsbut rather in poor, rural parts of the South and Appalachia with high rates of heart disease and diabetes. Worryingly, the three states that announced plans this week to relax their lockdowns (Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina) are all in this region. ■
Newest Reality
(12,712 posts)I guess those who vote for the current Republican Regime still won't realize that THEY are not the constituents in regards to be served by those they are elected.
Rather, they are statistical groupings of disposable human resource meat who have been trained to holler and hoot and make a big ruckus about some abstract idea of freedom that does not jibe with being impoverished, wage slaves in poor health with few resources for the rest of their, (possibly short now) lives.
They hear, "Look at them over there! They are the problem!" and sure enough, they get that in their craws and are ready to protest and do whatever else they are told to by manipulative agent provocateurs and devious Republicans. Meanwhile, all the time, they are getting screwed left and right to the point that their towns are for ghosts and their future is grim. I can see anger and frustration, but if you don't have the right villains in mind, you are fighting against your own best interests, not just voting against them.
Shermann
(7,433 posts)Bernardo de La Paz
(49,040 posts)Shermann
(7,433 posts)Bernardo de La Paz
(49,040 posts)Shermann
(7,433 posts)He didn't pull that out of his ass. It's the leading hypothesis based on established respiratory virus science.
It's not proven science yet as it relates to CV-19, but that doesn't mean we know nothing.
Your statement that CV-19 is "very different" in this regard has ventured into sounding like an assertion, presumably unsupported.
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,040 posts)All Fauci et al have offered about "fade in summer" is speculation about warmer temperatures based on Southern Hemisphere countries and have not factored in that they have lower rates of international travel so they got the virus later. If they had he would have mentioned it. Further much of South America and Africa have pitiful facilities for testing and diagnosis.
I can't find any speculation (let alone factual discussion) by Fauci regarding HUMIDITY. Ball is in your court if you want to try to dig your hole deeper.
But we do have a factual study by the French showing that warmer temperatures do not have much effect on the Coronavirus.
We do know about Covid-19:
It has a different, higher mortality rate.
It has a different demographic profile.
It causes long term organ damage. Flu does not.
There is hypoxia and blood clotting. Flu does not.
It has a different longer incubation period typically 5-7 days where it is infectious. Flu is shorter, 1-3 days.
It has different symptoms: dry cough, not wet. Loss of smell and taste. Flu does not.
You should know these facts but you don't know what the heck you are talking about.
Shermann
(7,433 posts)I've already cited a study from the CDC. The six differences that you googled between CV-19 and the flu do not disprove that fact. None of those facts even have anything to do with the mechanisms of virus transmission, so this is a complete fallacy.
My post was only half serious. But you are pulling the needle too far the other way.
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,040 posts)If they are citing a real study, provide the real link.
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,040 posts)Try reading it again.
I didn't have to google those facts. I and most people know them already. You can poo-poo googling, but you should try it.
We need a lot less "half serious" spreading of nonsense. Please stop.
Shermann
(7,433 posts)Bernardo de La Paz
(49,040 posts)Shermann
(7,433 posts)This hypothesis in a paywalled editorial from the Economist is certainly stronger than a peer-reviewed paper from the CDC because it was written more recently.
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,040 posts)cwydro
(51,308 posts)Then I hear about CA, WA, MA,, IL
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,040 posts)California, by the numbers, is doing a bit better than Canada. Canada is doing a lot better than the US.
US overall infection per thou is about 2.5 times Canada and California.
US overall death rate per million is about 3 times Canada and California.
California should leave the US and join Canada. It would fit right in. I've lived long periods in both.
cwydro
(51,308 posts)What a mess this world is in.
Im in NC, and my (red) county is under 200 cases, but I distrust these numbers because I think testing is so lacking EVERYWHERE.
Thank god we have a Dem governor; hoping he continues to make good decisions. Hes facing pressure already.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,857 posts)... given that random sampling antibody tests in New York estimate that only about 13.9% of them have been infected so far.
Its surely a much smaller percentage in the South right now, but they seem to be in a hurry to catch up.
Obesity is one of the major risk factors.
cwydro
(51,308 posts)Along with Vegas.
Well soon see. Boggles the mind.
Bayard
(22,149 posts)Buckeye_Democrat
(14,857 posts)They do look tasty, I must admit.
Now Im hungry.
Edit: I was at a buffet years ago, and a couple Eastern visitors (man and woman) at the restaurant didnt know that was gravy. The man kept ladling it, wondering what it was, until someone else told him. Lol.
The Magistrate
(95,255 posts)There's not much outside of Saag Ghosh tastes better....
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,857 posts)Mom made great biscuits and gravy. Put bacon grease on green beans too.
Thankfully, I was extremely active as a kid. I never got healthy looking, the polite way of describing chubby, I guess.
The Magistrate
(95,255 posts)I wish I could reproduce how an aunt fried sliced potatoes in bacon grease. We used it for everything. I was nine before I saw yellow scrambled eggs.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,857 posts)My parents grew up on farms in Northern KY.
Mom loved to cook, and food was always valued by her because her family was poor during the Great Depression. She described going to bed hungry a lot.
Dads family had money. Mom hated them as a child, seeing Dad carrying home groceries with celery sticking up from above the bag. Celery?! They have so much money that they waste it on celery?!
Mom obviously got over it later.
They were in their 40s when I was born, a pill-baby that they didnt expect at all.
Funerals for their cousins showed me that Moms cooking methods were pretty much the norm down there.
Celerity
(43,499 posts)Bayard
(22,149 posts)I'm sure the eastern part of the state will be hit hardest. But I'm always astounded at how many smokers there still are here, and how they feel free to light up on your property. They are equally astounded when I tell them to put it out.