Why is COVID-19's global mortality rate RISING???

[AllTooEasy]

As of 1:15am (yeah, I'm up late) on April 23rd, the WHO reports global counts of 169,151 confirmed deaths and 2,475,723 confirmed cases: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

That's a global mortality rate of 6.8%!!!

Remember when the mortality rate was estimated at %3.4 on March 3rd? Or, estimated even lower at %2 on Jan. 29th.? If not, check out this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

The true number of cases and deaths are definitely higher than the confirmed numbers. The true mortality is possibly higher or lower. We'll never know without testing everyone. We can only use the confirmed data at hand.

I found COVID-19's Case Fatality Rate here: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coronavirus-cfr

This chart shows displays a daily measure of COVID-19s global mortality rate since Feb 25th. I like to know your conclusions from this chart, specifically:

- Is COVID-19 mutating into deadlier strands? That would royally suck!

- Is COVID-19 progressively hitting areas that have less adequate health-care responses? Well then again, does the US, Italy, or the UK even have adequate health-care responses to this virus?

- Did China provide inaccurate death counts from the start? Surprise, surprise.

- Is the global number of confirmed cases just far more underrepresented than the number of confirmed deaths? I wouldn't doubt it.

- Or some other factors that my tired brain can't imagine at 1:30am?

Thanks in Advance. Please Be Safe!

[RandySF]

1. It's hard to say.

I don't think most people even get tested until they're sick.

[applegrove]

2. Yeah - most people who have coronavirus are carriers and nobody knows

who they are. They are not counted.

[greenjar_01]

3. What are the numbers on asymptomatic flu carriers?

We hear a lot about all the asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers. Surely we have good data on asymptomatic rates on various flu strains. Or are people claiming that asymptomatic carriers are unique to COVID-19? It would seem that any objection to the mortality rate that includes asymptomatic and untested/mild cases would have to apply that standard across viruses, no?

[applegrove]

5. Yes. But they have had years to study the various flus and have probably done

statistical random sample studies of populations and if they test positive for the flu during a season. They have had the science for 100 years. They are talking about doing the same type of studies on covid and its' prevalence in the population after an outbreak. Then they'll know more for sure. Plus there are other statistics like the transmission rate they can get by testing the contacts around a known case. And do it for more known cases. That is a sample too. Then they can extrapolate from there. Probably many ways they can do it. IMHO

[greenjar_01]

10. Right

We have that data.

[applegrove]

13. We need more data and tests. Trudeau said probably 1 million canadians

Last edited Sat Apr 25, 2020, 07:10 AM - Edit history (2)

would be tested out of 37.6 million of us. So we have the first few months of an outbreak of a novel virus and in a year we will have the data on the first year of an outbreak of a novel virus so there is more data to get. And important that we do it now. Antibodies are from the last 6 months at most. Plus the contact tracing, that will take place in places it has not widely taken place in so far like canada and the US, will tell us rates of transmission among the various types of locales and populations in a country. We are already divided up by postal code with marketing intel. Anyhow. They have to develop the models and do testing before and after other waves. But this is a novel year: great chance to get the statistics right on.

[DetlefK]

4. Maybe because it's now easier to tell whether someone died from coronavirus.

Types of deaths that were earlier attributed to other causes are now known to be caused by corona.

Also, the quality of medical care is getting lower and lower as more and more patients need treatment.

[beachbumbob]

6. we have ZERO data about this as we have NO IDEA how many people are infected, so determination

of a mortality rate is bogus effort. We do KNOW, the more you test the more we know who has it and weh nwe do immunity testing we can verify the countless millions who had it and never knew it

[dewsgirl]

7. Worldometers is at 36 percent.😳

United States
Coronavirus Cases:
849,092
Deaths:
47,681
Recovered:
84,050
CLOSED CASES
131,731
Cases which had an outcome:
84,050 (64%)
Recovered / Discharged

47,681 (36%)
Deaths

Over the weekend it was at 21 percent.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

8. The mortality rate cannot be accurately calculated right now

We still have no idea how many people currently have or had COVID. Until we have an idea on that number, the mortality rate is going to fluctuate based on testing. And with the widely varying standards in when testing is even done, it makes the current number even more pointless. I have family and friends treating COVID patients in my area(Metro Detroit) and a few of them are starting to think that the mortality rate of COVID may actually be close to that of influenza. They feel, based on what they are seeing and hearing from other medical professionals across the country, that there are far, far more infections then what we know and that the number of patients and number of serious cases is more due to the sheer number of infections, not that the disease is actually far more deadly then the flu. But all of this is a big unknown until testing, both for active infections and antibodies, are rolled out massively.

[crickets]

11. This. Without proper levels of testing, accurate data is impossible to come by. nt

[Quixote1818]

14. New York tested a huge number of people for antibodies. The true mortality is probably around .5%

Still way, way higher than the flu.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

9. It takes longer to die (3 wks) than to get infected (less than 1 wk). Death curve lags infected curv

[obamanut2012]

12. That isn't the mortality rate

It's the case mortality rate. Different 100% different things. The actual mortality rate will be much, much, MUCH lower.

[Quixote1818]

15. Yep. Based on NY testing for antibodies they think it's around .5%