U.S. is already seeing the uptick in Coronavirus Cases in the US, that was predicted ...

[aggiesal]

4/21/2020 the US increased coronavirus cases by 39,500 new cases, the highest 1 day total increase we have ever had.

The highest prior to yesterday was 4/10/2020 with 35,135 cases (11 days ago).
Since 4/10/2020 the cases have been slowly coming down into the mid 20,000's
On 4/13/2020 it came down to 24,973 cases, then started to climb again to 32,500 on 4/18/2020
then started dropping to 25,100 on 4/20/2020

Here are the new cases by date (as reported by Johns Hopkins)
4/10/2020 35,135
4/11/2020 29,865 3 Days of decreases
4/12/2020 28,900
4/13/2020 24,973
4/14/2020 26,927
4/15/2020 29,200
4/16/2020 31,400 5 Days of increases
4/17/2020 31,900
4/18/2020 32,500
4/19/2020 27,000 2 Days of decreases
4/20/2020 25,100
4/21/2020 39,500 Now This!


So YES, lets have more rallies at State houses and open up the country!

[SheltieLover]

1. So much winning

[SoonerPride]

2. Imagine what the true numbers wuld be if we had robust testing.

Easily 5 to 10 times those numbers IMO

Coroavirus is fucking everywhere.

[aggiesal]

3. I have only 1 word to say about that, yup! n/t

[Mike 03]

4. Thanks for pulling this data together.

Very useful, and crystal clear.

[aggiesal]

6. Hi Mike03, I created a spreadsheet and started keeping track since 3/31 ...

hoping to seeing us flattening the curve. It looked like we started to, but then the rallies started.

I've been doing the same for San Diego County where I live. (I recommend everyone do this, for the following reason)

The zip code that I live in 91911, has the 2nd highest zip code with coronavirus cases in the whole county.
The city I live in Chula Vista, has the 2nd highest city with coronovirus cases in the county behind San Diego.
Since I am literally in the county hot zone, I've stopped shopping in my area and started shopping where the
numbers are lower so less probability of catching this.

To top it off, my neighbor decided to throw a party last Friday night, where all the street parking was taken up,
no masks and no social distancing. My landscaper told me that his garbage cans were filled with food and beer cans.

The Republican Mayor of San Diego Kevin Faulconer has announced yesterday
to open some of the parks in the city.

[USALiberal]

5. Worldmeters shows 25,985 new cases yesterday. Nt

[aggiesal]

8. I believe the Johns Hopkins numbers are the GO TO numbers for M$M and government entities n/t

[DENVERPOPS]

29. The thing that bothers me

about that website is that they give the total number infected as a world total, then break it down by country except the U.S.
Then in the Deaths, they give other countries totals, but then not for the U.S. They don't even break it down by state, but give it by counties instead.
I wonder if that is by design????????

[aggiesal]

30. I agree, they break the US down by regions. ...

I think what they are trying to do is show where significant numbers are.

[DENVERPOPS]

31. Maybe

I still have to go to many other websites to get the "real total numbers" that show apples to apples.......

They "way" they show the numbers for the U.S. is far less shocking than the numbers are in reality.......

It seems that everything is suspect and questionable these days, and for good reason.......

[LonePirate]

7. If testing is ramping up, I would expect the number of cases to increase.

Rather than focus on the number of cases, the better metric would be the percentage of tests that are positive. This number accounts for daily fluctuations in the number of cases due to variations in the number of tests. Sure, it is not a flashy number but it is more meaningful over time if testing numbers increase as they should. 40,000 new cases means something different if we conduct 150,000 tests or 2 million tests per day.

[aggiesal]

9. Can you show me where to collect those numbers? ...

I don't believe anyone is keeping track of Positives/Tests Taken.

Obviously, we have Positives (based on Johns Hopkins).

[LonePirate]

13. Nate Silver has been compiling these numbers from the COVID Project.

https://www.twitter.com/COVID19Tracking

https://www.twitter.com/NateSilver538

[aggiesal]

16. Thanks ...

So yesterdays 39,500/152,000 = 25.99%

This doesn't seem plausible, so the theory that some Health Departments may be causing lags could throw
these numbers off.

[Stallion]

10. Those Days of Decreases Largely Correspondend to ---the Weekend

some states have lag reporting for deaths and new cases-its pretty obvious when you look at trends over several weeks-numbers go down through Monday then have risen on Tuesdays These numbers are not real-time-they are skewed based upon when the reports are received from the states and how the states report cases

[SoonerPride]

12. I like to think the virus takes the weekends off

It needs a break too.

j/k

obviously, you are correct. reporting drops over the weekends and catches up early in the week.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. What is key is the trend of the RATE. Further, use moving averages to smooth out reporting anomalies

Often cases are reported that have lagged a day or two. That makes one day smaller and another day bigger. So use a 3 day moving average or even 7 days. The Financial Times has great graphs and sometimes uses one or the other.

If you have 100,000 cases and you get a day with 10,000 new cases and later you have 400,000 cases and you get 32,000 new cases, that's a bad sign? No. Good sign. Because the rate in the first example is 10% per day increase while the rate in the second example is an 8% per day increase. Better.

[aggiesal]

14. Same data over 7 days. ...

So as you can see, over a 7 day period, it started to decrease slowly on 4/10.
unitil 4/18, then it jumped 4/21 back to 4/11 to 4/13 levels.
4/10 = 4/3 thru 4/10
4/11 = 4/4 thru 4/11
4/12 = 4/5 thru 4/12
...

4/10/2020 220,935
4/11/2020 217,500
4/12/2020 218,200
4/13/2020 213,573
4/14/2020 211,000
4/15/2020 207,265
4/16/2020 206,400
4/17/2020 203,165
4/18/2020 205,800
4/19/2020 203,900
4/20/2020 204,027
4/21/2020 216,600

[Bernardo de La Paz]

20. Very interesting. Thank you for the calculations. You may have detected a signal in the data

I was thinking it might tick up a couple of days from now. https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13306154

[aggiesal]

22. It might go higher ...

once the rally numbers kick in.

We started seeing Wisconsin voting numbers cases yesterday.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

24. And the beaches, etc. If you have a signal there, I fully expect it to go higher. . . . nt

[Stallion]

23. Here's a Website that Calculates those 3-Day and 7 Day averages

statistically has more information that any website I've seen


https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-deaths-covid-19

[aggiesal]

26. My county had a huge uptick on 4/16 as well. Pretty interesting. n/t

[Bernardo de La Paz]

27. Some fascinating charts there. Thanks. . . . nt

[SoonerPride]

15. or that testing is incapable of keeping up.

it is very possible that in your example the virus is still spreading 10% daily.

but without a robust enough testing regimen you wouldn't know that.

and the bigger the virus spread, you need a bigger testing net, and spreading that net coast to coast, the more holes it has in it.

so at best our tracking numbers are woefully inadequate

[aggiesal]

17. I agree, ...

But I can only go by Johns Hopkins numbers.

[SoonerPride]

19. true, I keep a daily tracking spreadsheet just for my own edification

even knowing that the numbers are not a true reflection of reality.

they are all we have.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

21. Yes, many factors are confounding the data & you have put your finger on perhaps the biggest. . . nt

[beachbumbob]

18. the count is erractic but no one expected it actually start to go down until mid-may if not June

I mean any one with a brain cell or 2

[bronxiteforever]

25. Kick and recommend for visibility

[Chainfire]

28. Florida's infection rate is still climbing

So our brilliant governor wants to open us up. He knows what will happen, but he is willing to sacrifice us on the off chance that someone can make some money off of it. Florida and Georgia are going to compete for the win, the prizes will be caskets.