How Far Will the U.S. Economy Plunge During Lockdown?

[marmar]

How Far Will the U.S. Economy Plunge During Lockdown?
by Wolf Richter • Apr 21, 2020 •

“Three times deeper than the Great Recession?”
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.


No one has ever been through an economy where enormous shifts have occurred, from one day to the next, shutting down part of the economy but also generating sectors that are vastly more vibrant than ever before. Monthly or quarterly economic indicators leave us in the dark because they lag too far behind and are at the moment largely useless. What we need is high-frequency data – daily and weekly that track this shifting economy in near-real time.

For example, there has been an enormous boom in ecommerce – but we won’t get ecommerce data for Q1 until mid-May and for Q2 until August. Best Buy reported last week that its online sales had surged by 250% but that it would furlough 51,000 hourly store employees as stores were closed to customers, allowing only for curbside pickup. That duality that is now widespread impacts the economy in strange ways.

Grocery store and supermarket sales – which are normally the epitome of slow and steady growth tied to inflation and population growth – are suddenly booming. Kroger reported a 30% surge in “identical retail supermarket sales without fuel.” ............(more)

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/04/21/how-far-will-u-s-economy-gdp-plunge-during-lockdowns/

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

1. A lot.

A whole lot.

And almost every sector will be slow to recover.

[HarlanPepper]

2. We could be a barter economy in a year.

I have no basis for saying that but it sounds good, and is super doomsday-y which is en Vogue.

[unblock]

6. trenchant analysis

i'm only saying that because i so rarely get to use the word "trenchant".

[Laelth]

3. The entire essay is worth reading.

But it's not for the faint of heart. It paints a bleak picture of our likely economic future.

-Laelth

[fleur-de-lisa]

4. Depression with a D.

[SoonerPride]

5. This is a global depression

There will be massive retraction of markets, tourism, travel, entertainment, and other discretionary nonessential spending.

This is a global depression.

[mopinko]

7. tbh, i am a bit surprised so much is still working.

if unemployment is 30%, that means 70% of people still are.
that's not a perfect equation, but in my frame of reference, people i know, a lot of them are still working. some full time. some over time.

things are gonna be shaken up hard, but some people are gonna make a lot of money.

[Initech]

8. I just found out one of my favorite stores might not survive.

I am very devastated.