IHME Projection Jumps Back Up to 65,976 Deaths by August 4

[Stallion]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[Dream Girl]

1. Seems like it could get to that in about a week

[Blue_true]

18. Going to be close. We had 10,000 die in the last four days.

This stuff really makes one worry about relatives. Once people get this virus, it is either they middle along, or die fast. This stuff is NOT the flu and it doesn't mess around once it gets into a vulnerable body. Even people that survive may have lifelong organ damage, damage that will most likely kill most of them early.

[redstatebluegirl]

2. It will be higher with the protests

and the crazy southern governors who are opening bars and massage parlors. By the end of May this will be a huge mess.

[Stallion]

5. Yeah They've Moved Some Dates When They Project Relaxation of Social Distancing

For example June 19th for Georgia-too bad their Governor hasn't gotten the message since he's going to open it up 7 WEEKS earlier

[Squinch]

17. It will be higher without the protests. We'll be at 60K in a week, week and a half.

[USALiberal]

3. Well, look at the assumptions also......

"Current social distancing assumed until infections minimized and containment implemented"

That will end in many states soon!

[uponit7771]

6. +1, these assumptions are asinine at best it looks like they're trying to get headlines vs tell

... America the current reality.

[USALiberal]

9. +1000! nt

[ProfessorGAC]

15. You're Up On It!

See what I did there?
But, I had to chime in because I agree wholeheartedly.
There's something wrong with some their base assumptions, and actuarial modeling always requiresnsome assumptions about risk variables & censor values. Maybe they're being too conservative in how they're censoring the data.
But even with the uptick in their projection that's 22,000 deaths in 104 days. Since deaths went from a thousand to 40,000 in 25 days, (I think that # of days is right) 212/day seems optimistic.

[SoonerPride]

4. By August we will have 200,000 dead

Their model is crap

[Squinch]

16. Thank you. We're guaranteed at least to be over 100K.

[Iliyah]

7. Go pro-lifers . . .

congregate even more and please ask t-rump, pence, the administration, the republican party and don't forget devos to join every fucking day.

[Roland99]

8. We will be at 50,000 in 2-3 days!

[Drunken Irishman]

10. Hard to believe we'll only have 20,000 dead between now and Aug. 4th.

We'll be at 55,000 by this time next week.

[NoMoreRepugs]

11. Red states will be under reporting cases and deaths

more going forward than they have already.

[Stallion]

12. No Doubt in My Mind

Those rat-fuckers will do everything in their power to make Trump look good. This is where we need the press to investigate the truth. Plus with several their political future is directed tied to their failure to follow proper recommended procedures

[Squinch]

13. IHME started out idiotic, and continues to be idiotic.

[rzemanfl]

14. That's my birthday and President Obama's.

The projection is bullshit.

[GulfCoast66]

19. Ok. I'm a science major but was taugh the first thing to look for, even before studying the science

Is does something pass the common sense test.

We are losing like 2500 a day now. New infections are not dropping quickly. How in the world am I to believe the number of deaths is about to plummet to 200 hundred a day?

Even if the deaths are cut in half we will blow thru 65k in just over 2 weeks.

I hope I’m wrong. If I was a believer I would pray I’m wrong. But I can’t see it.

[Indykatie]

20. The Projections Don't Make Sense To Me - They Show 65,000 Deaths on May 16

How can they show a projection of only 65,976 on August 4? What am I missing?

[Crunchy Frog]

21. Their assumption is that fatalities will decrease to almost nothing

by June 1st, and then continue at that rate through August. Looks like magical thinking to me.