COVID-19 Is Not Going to Eliminate the Human Species

[MineralMan]

I saw someone implying that in another thread. That will not happen. As bad as it is, the vast majority of people who contract the viral disease recover completely. It's a nasty viral disease, but it is not going to kill everyone. Not even most people. In fact, if it kills 1% of the global population, that would be a very surprising thing.

Instead, far fewer that that will die from it. Within a year or so, there will be a vaccine. Before that, effective treatments will be found for it. In fact, there are clinical trials already for at least two vaccine candidates and several antiviral treatments.

Until we can protect ourselves from COVID-19, we can limit its spread through social distancing and other measures.

As bad as this pandemic is, it is far from an "extinction event." It is one more disease that sweeps through the population and kills many people. It will not, though kill anything close to everyone.

Any individual has a greater than 99% chance of coming out of this pandemic alive. If a vaccine and effective treatments are found, and they will be, it will still be a terrible thing, but will not mean the end of the human race or come even close to that.

It's important to retain some perspective, even in the face of fear of the virus. Very important.

[wryter2000]

1. Homo sapiens survived the plague

When there were no vaccines and medicine was primitive. IIRC, about 10 percent of the population of Europe died. That left 90 percent.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. The Black Death wiped out 1/3 to 1/2 of Europe in the 14th century.

Some experts think it was closer to 60%, or 50 million people. It took about 200 years for that population to restore itself, but obviously it did, and then some. This isn't an extinction event, though Agent Orange seems to be doing his best to make it one.

[MineralMan]

3. Even Donald Trump will not get his way.

Last edited Sun Apr 12, 2020, 03:30 PM - Edit history (1)

The European Plague occurred long before there was anything like proper medical care. If you caught the Plague, you stood a very strong chance of dying. COVID-19 is not like that. Even people who never seek medical attention are surviving this. Many don't even have symptoms serious enough to seek medical care.

COVID-19 is not the equivalent of the Black Plague. Not even close. Our medical system will find a vaccine and treatments that work. It's just a matter of time. Meanwhile we are taking steps to slow its spread, and they're working.

We're only in the fourth month of this pandemic. Research and clinical trials on vaccines and antiviral treatments are already underway and are expanding rapidly. Every medical school hospital is conducting those clinical trials at this time. It will not be long before one of the antivirals is shown to be effective, and results of some vaccine candidate trials will begin to demonstrate safety and efficacy before long.

This is not the civilization that was existent during the Black Plague. We have made spectacular progress since then. We have eradicated smallpox, diphtheria, polio, and other diseases since that time. We know how to fight disease. We'll conquer this one, too. Sadly, lots of people will still die before treatments and vaccines are available, but it won't get even close to 1% in the USA.

Worry is appropriate over COVID-19. Panic is not.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

4. I think you missed my point, which was that the plague was much worse

and it still didn't wipe out the human race. Panic might have been a little more understandable then, though.

[MineralMan]

5. No, I understood that.

I was just pointing out the reason why it killed such a large percentage of people then.

The plague is still around, but antibiotics are effective against it. It's endemic in rodents in California, for example, but few people die from it now.

This COVID-19 thing isn't going to even come close to that kind of death toll, because we will figure out how to treat and prevent it.