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nitpicker

(7,153 posts)
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 07:55 PM Apr 2020

Cleveland.com had not much reason to be smug about OH CV Stats versus MI's

Link to the article that XXXD me off:

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2020/04/michigan-now-has-close-to-quadruple-ohios-coronavirus-cases-what-could-be-causing-the-difference.html

In summary, they noted that MI's current caseload is more than three times greater than OH's.

True, but even in their own stats they show that this was the case back on 20 March.

By my use of the the Avi Schiffman data, from Mar 23 to Apr 4 Michigan caseload increased 12.3 times and Ohio 9.4 times.

Advantage OH? Better mitigation efforts? Not so fast.

!. Until mid-March, Detroit's airport was a major international hub. If anything, OH's airport international travel was to-from Canada (presumably with some flights also south of the US border, especially during spring break). AND the Detroit area hosted a major international car crossing into Canada. Result: More opportunities for CV to seed MI vs OH.

2, As of this date, Detroit airport continues to receive flights from all over the US. Lots more chances for CV seeding.

3. Given the difficulties in getting tests read and positives found, this factor (IMO) cannot be discounted in "case increase rates."







10 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Cleveland.com had not much reason to be smug about OH CV Stats versus MI's (Original Post) nitpicker Apr 2020 OP
This means WAR! Buckeye_Democrat Apr 2020 #1
You can have it. roamer65 Apr 2020 #6
In terms declaring an emergency, Michigan was ahead of Ohio Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #2
I read the entire article and didn't see it as smug Raven123 Apr 2020 #3
I didn't see it as smug either. LisaL Apr 2020 #5
80% of the cases in Michigan are in the Metro Detroit area MichMan Apr 2020 #4
"Essential" is being abused in Ohio too. Buckeye_Democrat Apr 2020 #8
DTW airport is a major Delta hub. roamer65 Apr 2020 #7
There's still lots of flights... Buckeye_Democrat Apr 2020 #9
Smug? This is smug. TheBlackAdder Apr 2020 #10

Ms. Toad

(34,075 posts)
2. In terms declaring an emergency, Michigan was ahead of Ohio
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 08:25 PM
Apr 2020

Ohio declared it on March 9, the day of its first case. Michigan declared it on March 10, a day before its first case.

I suspect at least part of the difference is how much community spread there was before detection of the first case. Once it gets a toehold in, a lot of it is out of our control. That's why early testing is so critical.

Raven123

(4,849 posts)
3. I read the entire article and didn't see it as smug
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 08:41 PM
Apr 2020

The article noted the the similar timing in mitigation strategies, the fact of Detroit airport being a significant site of international arrivals/departures, the fact that MI’s primary was held esrlier and not called off, and the impact of test volume on the stats. I think it was just pointing out how many factors contribute to real and reported disease stats.

MichMan

(11,938 posts)
4. 80% of the cases in Michigan are in the Metro Detroit area
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 08:42 PM
Apr 2020

For disclosure I don't live in that area anymore but a couple hours away, so some of what I am saying is anecdotal from what I have heard in the new and from friends etc.

1) The Stay at Home orders issues by the governor are somewhat ambiguous and people don't understand what is essential and what isn't. They keep trying to clarify them every other day or so. Example is even though they say stay at home, outdoor activities are allowed, so city and state parks were open etc. Well, the intent was for people to walk their dogs, get some fresh air and such.

People foolishly decided that all park activities were then OK, so the playgrounds were full, people were playing basketball, and having picnics etc. Golf was first allowed for a week and then it was disallowed, the Detroit mayor just ordered the basketball hoops taken down because people won't use common sense. Kids are running around in groups like it is summer vacation and guys are riding their motorcycles all over. So much for Stay at Home.

Yesterday, the State Police interpreted the governor's order to mean that pleasure boating wasn't essential and isn't allowed. Gov. Whitmer's office than said within hours that the police were wrong and it was permitted. If the State Police can't even understand the executive orders, how is the general populace expected to follow them?

2) The list of businesses that had to close down and those who stay open because they are considered "essential" don't always seem to make sense IMO. The problem was that once a business was called essential, anything in that business becomes allowable.

For example, auto repair shops are essential in case people needed their cars repaired for groceries or medical emergencies. Doesn't mean going to Jiffy Lube for an oil change is essential, but they fell into the same category. Because repair shops are essential, so are auto parts stores. So now you have guys running in and out buying stuff like waxes and polishes and doing routine maintenance because they have nothing else to do. People were taking their whole families into the grocery stores etc. Just a total lack of common sense.

The big home improvement stores were called essential in case someone had a plumbing emergency or something catastrophic happen in their home. So people are taking multiple trips a day shopping in droves & buying stuff like flats of petunias, lawn mowers, light fixtures, lumber and working on all these remodeling projects because they have the time.

3) Finally, some of the decisions on what must close seems ridiculous to me. Veterinarians were told to close unless it was a life threatening emergency, yet people are lined up buying lottery tickets and the pot shops are open doing business as usual. 4 months ago, pot was illegal, and now it is essential. Go figure

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,855 posts)
8. "Essential" is being abused in Ohio too.
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 09:09 PM
Apr 2020

There’s factories still open around here that I don’t consider essential at all. For example, a company that manufactures adhesive products which can later be manufactured (SOMETIMES by its customers) as STICKERS for food and medical product labels.

Many businesses are finding loopholes and exposing their employees to other people.

I don’t think the government bureaucracy is big enough to really stop it. Restaurants and other service industries are easier to monitor.

roamer65

(36,745 posts)
7. DTW airport is a major Delta hub.
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 08:59 PM
Apr 2020

Many flights to China. I think this bug has been here since December. I had something very similar to it in early January.

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,855 posts)
9. There's still lots of flights...
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 09:14 PM
Apr 2020

... throughout the USA according to this site: https://www.flightradar24.com/40.45,-88.97/2

It looks like a congested mess around China and Europe too.

Almost nothing to/from Africa, which coincidentally has very few cases of the virus.

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